This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Thursday night is quiet for most high-major college basketball teams, but we still have some squads on the West Coast scheduled to compete. Here are my predictions for a special Pac-12 After Dark slate of college hoops.
Arizona State 
at Oregon 
Arizona State was looking questionable at the end of the non-conference season, winning six of 11 games with a two-point home victory over SMU being its best achievement. But since then, the Sun Devils have defeated Utah and Colorado and are playing better over the past month. When Arizona State opened league play against Stanford on December 29th, the Sun Devils were ranked 120th on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, and entering Thursday they're now ranked 101st, underscoring the improved performance since the conference season tipped off.
Oregon, in contrast, hasn't shown the same indications of improvement despite starting the conference season with a 5-0 record. The problem is that the Ducks recently got swept in their trip to face the mountain teams in Colorado and Utah. Oregon entered the conference season 48th in overall efficiency, and now it's sitting at 54th. Not bad, but this isn't exactly a positive trajectory, even though it started the conference season with a winning streak.
In comparing these teams side-by-side, the most interesting note is that they're playing at nearly even levels since the conference season tipped off, with Arizona State arguably playing better. Through league play, the Ducks have the second-best offensive efficiency rating in the Pac-12, but it's going against a Sun Devil team that has the second-best defensive efficiency rating in the Pac-12. But that's not all, the Sun Devils also have the highest defensive turnover percentage in the league in that span, as well as the best three-point field goal percentage allowed, highest defensive blocking percentage, and highest steal percentage. This is a relentless defensive team any way you look at it. On the other end of the court, Arizona State isn't as effective, ranking eighth in offensive efficiency in the Pac-12, but luckily for the Sun Devils, Oregon has been dreadful on defense during league play. The Ducks have the third-worst defensive efficiency rating in the Pac-12 and they're also allowing conference opponents to make over 55 percent from inside the arc, the highest percentage allowed in the Pac-12. It's also worth pointing out that these two teams have played nearly identical conference opponents so far this season (both southern California schools and both mountain schools), so this data perhaps carries more weight than usual.
Overall, these two teams don't appear as far apart as the season-long efficiency numbers might suggest, especially when focusing on the most recent results against similar competition. Arizona State has already won multiple road conference games, and for what it's worth, last year it hammered Oregon in Eugene by a final score of 90-73. The Sun Devils will probably lose the game, but I'm betting they'll keep the score close thanks to their aggressive defense. I'm taking the points in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Arizona State +8.5
Arizona 
at Oregon State 
What happens when the best team in the Pac-12 travels to face the worst? Well, we're about to find out.
By now, the Arizona Wildcats don't need much introduction, as they're proving themselves to be legitimate national championship contenders. That said, Arizona, like any other college basketball team, hasn't performed nearly as sharp when playing outside of its home arena. Arizona has four losses on the season, and all of them came away from home. The biggest issue for the Wildcats when traveling is its defense, seemingly disproving the notion that 'defense travels.' In its losses, Arizona allowed 92 points to Purdue, 100 points at California, and 73 points at Washington State. The first result to Purdue is understandable, to a degree, but the other two outcomes further underscore the issue. In 10 home games, Arizona is allowing 63 points per game. In 8 games outside of home, Arizona is allowing 82 points per game.
Oregon State, meanwhile, has only played three home games against conference teams, and it looked competitive in all three. The Beavers held a second-half lead in the conference opener against UCLA before falling, 69-62, and then they defeated USC straight up, 86-70, in the following game in what is their best performance of the season. In their third and most recent home game, the Beavers took Stanford to overtime before losing 88-84. Oregon State again held a second-half lead, with KenPom giving them an 85 percent chance of winning the game with under 10 minutes remaining.
The record and efficiency numbers for Oregon State are brutal at face value, and KenPom is giving it a six percent chance of defeating Arizona on Thursday, so picking this game is not for the faint of heart. We can either lay a massive line with a road favorite or take a massive amount of points with the home dog. Considering the home and road splits for each team, I'm going with the latter. Last year, a worse Oregon State team hosted Arizona and lost, 86-74, a final score that would cover the number in this year's game. I'm taking the points.
Additionally, given the same factors listed above, and Arizona's explosive offensive attack, I'm also betting on a high-scoring game. The Wildcats consistently push an aggressively fast tempo, ranking 11th in the nation, so we should see a high amount of possessions in the game. The number isn't too high, and if Oregon State plays better at Corvallis as it has in other games this season, then the Beavers should likely do their part to help us shoot past the mark. I'm rolling with the over as well.
College Basketball Best Bet: Oregon State +18.5 and Over 149
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Arizona State +8.5
- Oregon State +18.5
- Arizona at Oregon State - Over 149
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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