This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Thursday night is Big Ten night, as we have a trio of league games tipping off in the evening. Here are my predictions for all three.
Oregon 
at Ohio State
The Ducks assembled an outstanding resume, collecting wins over Texas A&M, San Diego State, Alabama, and Maryland. Their only losses are to two teams on track for favorable seeds in March, UCLA and Illinois. Oregon ranks 21st in strength of schedule, per KenPom, so we're dealing with a team that's thoroughly battle-tested and passed most of its exams.
In stark contrast, the Buckeyes have not passed most of their tests. They've won 10 of 15 games but lost all their most challenging matchups, falling to Texas A&M, Pittsburgh, Maryland, and Auburn. That said, Ohio State recorded wins over Texas and Kentucky, so it's still capable of beating a good team, even though its record raises some doubt.
Oregon is proving to be one of the more effective scoring teams in the nation. It ranks 21st in offensive efficiency, and perhaps more importantly, it plays at a high level in many facets. The Ducks rank better or near the top 100 of the nation in effective field goal percentage, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free-throw attempt rate, and free-throw percentage. Ohio State ranks well in defensive efficiency, 41st, but it's not doing well in a few key areas. Namely, the Buckeyes rank 194th in defensive rebounding percentage and 295th in free-throw attempt rate allowed. The Ducks are effective in both of these skills, giving them a stronger upper hand on this side of the court.
When playing in the other direction, Ohio State is similarly effective on offense, 31st in efficiency, although it's weak in one key area. The Buckeyes rank 220th in offensive rebounding, which isn't the end of the world, but in a game against Oregon, a team can use every second chance it gets. The Ducks have the 46th-best defensive efficiency rating and rank highly in most categories, so they don't usually surrender points easily. Ohio State is normally great at drawing contact, 72nd in free-throw attempt rate, however, Oregon typically plays defense without fouling, 29th in free-throws allowed. The Buckeyes have the edge in efficiency at this end of the court, but the Ducks appear well-equipped to counter.
Considering this game will likely come down to the last few possessions, I prefer the points with the better offensive team. I'm taking the Ducks.
College Basketball Best Bet: Oregon +3
Purdue 
at Rutgers
The Boilermakers put themselves through a gauntlet in the non-conference season, recording wins over Alabama and Mississippi, but they also lost to Marquette, Texas A&M, and Auburn. There's no shame in losing to these three teams, though the number of losses certainly piled up. Purdue has already won three of four Big Ten games, including a noteworthy win against Maryland. This team is obviously different than last year's, missing a certain center and all, but it's still shown to have a high ceiling. Purdue has played the sixth-most difficult schedule among all D-1 teams per KenPom, so its 11-4 record is more impressive than it appears.
The Scarlett Knights, meanwhile, haven't shown much of a ceiling. Despite the hype surrounding five-star freshmen Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, who are both playing well, this team has not lived up to expectations. Rutgers has lost seven of 15 games, including losses against Kennesaw State and Princeton. The Scarlett Knights had opportunities to prove themselves several times, and have come up short in the biggest instances, dropping games to Alabama, Texas A&M, Ohio State, Indiana, and Wisconsin. Now, on Thursday, they'll have yet another opportunity.
Led by star junior point guard Braden Smith, Purdue is among the best at scoring, ranking 11th in offensive efficiency. The Boilermakers are one of the sharpest shooting teams in the nation, ranking 22nd in effective field goal percentage and 10th in three-point percentage, making almost 40 percent. The latter is extra noteworthy in this matchup, as Rutgers' defense has been vulnerable on the perimeter, allowing almost 35 percent from beyond the arc. The Scarlett Knights haven't been great at this end in general, ranking 94th in defensive efficiency, so Purdue should be able to get its usual looks.
Led by star freshman point guard Dylan Harper, Rutgers has managed to stay afloat, though its team offensive numbers are surprisingly not good. The Scarlett Knights rank 88th in offensive efficiency and 29th in turnovers, but they rank below average in effective field goal percentage and offensive rebounding. Purdue's defense isn't as sharp as in years past, but it's still noticeably better in this matchup, ranking 59th in efficiency. It's also important to note that Dylan Harper was recovering from the flu in Rutgers' previous game against Wisconsin on Monday, January 6, so he only played 15 total minutes. A few days should help, but anyone who's had the flu knows it's not the quickest recovery. Either way, his status is worth monitoring before tip-off.
Rutgers might have more talent than it usually does, but funny enough, it has completely fallen off defensively. If its current defensive efficiency rating holds up, it will easily be the worst in the team's nine years under head coach Steve Pikiell. All four of Purdue's losses came against teams that rank in the top 60 of the defensive efficiency rankings, if not substantially higher, and Rutgers is nowhere close to that. For these reasons, I'm going with Purdue.
College Basketball Best Bet: Purdue -1.5
Washington 
at Michigan State 
The Huskies pulled off a surprising upset a week ago when they defeated Maryland, 75-69, but they haven't accomplished much outside of that performance. They lost to Nevada, UCLA, and Illinois. They haven't traveled east of Reno. They haven't left Seattle since December 3rd. This will only be their third true road game. Suffice to say, this will be their toughest challenge yet.
The Spartans, on the other hand, are red-hot, covering the spread in six of their last seven games, per Action Network. They've won 12 of 14 games, including wins over North Carolina, Nebraska, and Ohio State.
When Washington has the ball on Thursday, it will face one of the best defenses in the nation. The Spartans rank 12th in defensive efficiency, in another stratosphere compared to the Huskies' offense, which ranks 134th. The biggest problem for Washington is its shooting. It's sub-par across the board, making 51 percent inside the arc and under 33 percent beyond the arc, yielding an effective field goal percentage that ranks 184th. They are among the worst from the charity stripe, making 66 percent, 312th among all D-1 teams. The Huskies are also prone to having their shots blocked, 329th in offensive blocks, a terrible trait against Michigan State because the Spartans rank 25th in defensive blocks.
When Michigan State has the ball, it will again enjoy an advantage. It outranks Washington at this end of the court as well, 35th to 62nd, but the real edge lies in the paint. The Spartans are among the best at attacking the rim, making over 57 percent of two-point attempts, the 33rd-best mark, while the Huskies are allowing opponents to make 51 percent, the exact average among all D-1 teams. Michigan State is also active on the glass, ranking 23rd in offensive rebounding percentage, while Washington is once again not at the same level, 177th in defensive rebounding.
The spread for this game is massive, and rightfully so. Washington is in its first year under a new head coach and doesn't have a realistic chance of dancing in March, while Michigan State has made 25 consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances. Given the circumstances of the game, and where each program is at this point in the season, I'm laying the points with the much better team. I'm taking the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Michigan State -14.5
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Oregon +3
- Purdue -1.5
- Michigan State -14.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
