This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
With a rather light Tuesday college hoops betting slate, Steve Peralta takes a look at the Fighting Irish and breaks down the lone Big East matchup on the board.
Jacksonville at 
Notre Dame
Notre Dame enters Tuesday's game on a three-game skid and has lost five of its last seven games. Its current free fall is primarily due to its porous defense. Notre Dame has the worst defensive efficiency among all ACC teams, and it's not remotely close. During their current losing streak, the Fighting Irish has allowed over 72 points to Marquette, Georgia and Florida State, the latter two signifying particularly poor performances considering neither team has been great offensively this season. Jacksonville, Tuesday's opponent, isn't much worse than these two teams on offense, so Notre Dame will need to improve its defense if it wants to avoid an upset on Tuesday.
Jacksonville already put up 73 points in a double-digit victory against VCU earlier this season, a team with a stout defense, so the Dolphins shouldn't be threatened by an underwhelming Irish defense. Jacksonville is making its shots better than the average D1 team in every key category: two-points, three-points, free throws, and effective field goal percentage.
Notre Dame has played 12 games this season and nine of them have gone over 130 combined points, including all four of its previous games. Jacksonville, meanwhile, has played seven games this season against D1 opponents and four of them went over 133 combined points. Considering both teams are highly proficient when it comes to scoring, I'm expecting these two teams to trade baskets frequently throughout the game. The over/under number is on the lower side because both teams prefer taking their time, but the pace hasn't stopped these teams from participating in higher-scoring games throughout the season. I'll take the points and the over in what figures to be a shootout.
College Basketball Best Bet: Jacksonville +7.5 & Over 129
Seton Hall at 
Marquette
The Golden Eagles are coming off a double-overtime loss on the road but are still flying high this season. They have won six of their last eight games, with both losses coming in overtime. In this same span, the Golden Eagles have collected double-digit victories over Baylor, Notre Dame on the road, and Creighton -- all quality victories.
In contrast, Seton Hall has lost five of its last seven games against D1 opponents, with just one quality win, a road game at Rutgers. This victory was no doubt impressive, but at the same time, Seton Hall barely won, 45-43, so it's hard to say the Pirates looked good when scoring hardly any points. This is noteworthy because the offense has been a major problem for them. Seton Hall hasn't scored over 70 points against a D1 opponent since November 20 against Wagner. In fact, the Pirates have scored over 70 points in just three games this season, and all three of them were against teams that rank below 200 in KenPom's adjusted efficiency standings. Seton played a fourth team that fits this criterion, Siena, and the Pirates could only muster 55 points in a loss. Marquette, on the other hand, has scored at least 69 points in eight straight contests, including against strong defensive teams such as Baylor, Wisconsin and Creighton.
Seton Hall also has a matchup problem in Tuesday's game, as the Pirates have done a poor job taking care of the ball. Seton Hall currently ranks No. 337 in offensive steal rate, which is bad news for them because Marquette ranks No. 38 in defensive steal rate. Given this massive mismatch, it's a safe bet that Marquette will win the turnover battle handily, especially considering the Golden Eagles are extra careful with the ball, ranking No. 37 in offensive turnover rate.
All in all, these two teams are trending in opposite directions. Seton Hall's defense will likely keep it in the game for a half or so, but Marquette should pull away thanks to its potent offensive attack and its defensive ability in causing turnovers. I'll take the home team and the team that's substantially better at scoring.
College Basketball Best Bet: Marquette -7
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Jacksonville +7.5
- Jacksonville at Notre Dame - Over 129
- Marquette -7
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the College Basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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