This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Conference matchups now fill the college basketball betting slate, and Steve Peralta returns to break down some of the action and offer his best bets of the day.
Louisiana State at 
Kentucky
LSU enters Tuesday's game with a near-perfect record, sitting at 12-1, but it still has a lot to prove. The Tigers have played one of the easiest schedules in the country, with their list of non-conference opponents ranking No. 345 in difficulty, per KenPom. Furthermore, LSU has routinely been unable to win impressively against weaker competition, failing to cover the spread in its last five games when listed as a favorite.
Kentucky, on the other hand, has four losses this season, and all of them came against teams with strong offensive attacks, ranking top-50 in adj. offensive efficiency, per KenPom. This is noteworthy because LSU ranks No. 102 on offense, so Kentucky shouldn't have too much trouble in this one, especially playing at home. As one might expect, Kentucky plays significantly better at home, where it remains unbeaten while defeating every opponent by at least double digits (with an average scoring margin of 26.5 points per game).
Kentucky hasn't covered the spread in seven straight games, although it came within a point of covering a 23.5 spread against Louisville, so it seems Kentucky is finally playing closer to expectations after failing to meet them over the past month. The Wildcats will inevitably snap this streak, and Tuesday is a good day to snap it because LSU has played similarly, losing against the spread in five of its last seven games. Despite both teams' recent inability to cover the spread, one of them has to get the job done today; my money is on the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Kentucky -9
Virginia at 
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh started this season at 1-3 and appeared on track to repeat last season when it was one of the worst teams in the country. That is no longer the case. Since losing to VCU by four points in mid-November, Pittsburgh has won nine of 10 games, including road matchups against Northwestern and NC State, both of which effectively qualify as Quad 1 wins, per KenPom. Perhaps more impressively, the Panthers have covered the spread in nine consecutive games -- an incredible feat that underscores the fact that this team has come together and is undoubtedly trending upward.
Virginia, meanwhile, enters Tuesday's game with a 10-2 record, collecting quality wins over Baylor, Illinois and Michigan. While its resume is looking good so far, the Cavaliers have shown significant vulnerability over the past month. First, playing at home, Virginia barely defeated both Florida St. and James Madison by five points, then the Cavaliers lost to Houston and Miami in back-to-back games. Prior to its most recent game on New Year's Eve, Virginia had failed to cover the spread in seven consecutive games, suggesting the team has not been playing as well as its record suggests.
One more important note to consider, these two teams played each other twice last season, and Virginia survived on the road by a single point, 57-56, before winning at home by five points, 66-61. These two outcomes are worth noting because Pittsburgh has substantially improved this season, while Virginia returns a significant portion of last year's team, ranking 12th in roster continuity, per KenPom. This game will likely be a low-scoring game, and Pittsburgh is playing its best basketball of the season, so I like the Panthers' odds of staying in the game. I'll take the points with the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Pittsburgh +5.5
Kansas State at 
Texas
Texas hasn't been quite as sharp recently, covering the spread in just two of its last eight games. Its defense is still ranked incredibly high in adjusted efficiency, but it's been a bit more generous lately, allowing 72 points on its home court to opponents such as Louisiana and Texas A&M Commerce. While its defense has been slipping, its offense is still as potent as ever, particularly at home. The Longhorns are scoring an average of 87 points per game at home, scoring 80-plus points in seven of nine home games this season.
Kansas State's defense is the strength of the team, but it was hardly tested during non-conference season. The best offensive team the Wildcats played was Nevada, and they allowed 87 points to the Wolfpack. The Wildcats also played at Butler, and they allowed 76 points to a team that ranks near the bottom of its conference in offensive efficiency. Offensively, Kansas State hasn't been the best scoring team in the Big 12, but it still knows how to score. Kansas State recently played two strong defensive teams, Nebraska and West Virginia, and put up 70-plus points against both teams. The Wildcats have scored at least 70 points in the last five games, so they're in a good rhythm heading into Tuesday's game.
Overall, the way these two teams play, we can expect a high-scoring game. Texas prefers playing at a fast tempo, recording the 26th fastest pace on offense, per KenPom, with Kansas State ranking a bit below it at No. 113. It's always possible Texas' defense steps up and completely stops Kansas State, but ultimately I'm betting that the Longhorns will once again put up a ton of points at home. All signs indicate we'll likely have a score that's north of 140. I'm on the over in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 137.5
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Kentucky -9
- Pittsburgh +5.5
- Kansas St. at Texas - Over 137.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the College Basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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