This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Conference season is picking up for a few more teams on Wednesday's college hoops slate. Steve Peralta examines each matchup and brings you the best bets of the day.
Kentucky at 
Missouri
Missouri enters conference season with a near-perfect record, 11-1, with its only blemish being a loss to Kansas. Aside from that misstep, the Tigers have been firing on all cylinders, scoring at least 82 points in all but two games this season. Missouri's defense doesn't have great efficiency numbers, but it does boast the highest steal rate in the country, so the Tigers certainly know how to make plays and disrupt opposing teams. This was made crystal clear in their last game when they absolutely dominated Illinois from beginning to end.
Kentucky, meanwhile, begins conference season with an 8-3 record, with the three losses coming against Michigan State, Gonzaga and UCLA. While there's no shame in losing to these teams, Kentucky lost by nine-plus points to all of them, suggesting that the Wildcats still have many things to improve upon. Kentucky has played in four games away from home this season, and lost three of the four, with the one exception being a four-point victory over a Michigan team that was almost a double-digit underdog at the time.
Overall, Kentucky has failed to cover the spread in five consecutive games, and it hasn't come close to covering in any of them. Not a good sign any way you look at it. Considering the Wildcats will have their hands full on the road facing a Missouri team that is among the best-scoring teams in the country, I like the home team in this matchup. I'll take the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: Missouri +3
Florida at 
Auburn
Florida has played in four games this season that were effectively Quad 1 games, per KenPom, and the Gators lost each one handily. They also lost a home game to Florida Atlantic back in November, another game that would've actually helped their resume had they won. Florida still comes into Wednesday's game at No. 50 in KenPom's overall adjusted efficiency standings, but this is mostly due to the fact that the Gators absolutely destroyed all of the inferior opponents in between the better competition. In its last three games against major conference teams, Florida failed to score more than 55 points in any of them. This is an ominous pattern considering Wednesday's opponent, Auburn, is among the best defensive teams in the country.
The Tigers are returning from a trip to the west coast in which it split a pair of games, nearly defeating USC on the road before avenging the loss with a blowout victory up in Washington. Auburn now enters conference play with a 10-2 record, with wins over good offensive teams (Saint Louis and Colgate) and good defensive teams (Bradley and Northwestern). Add up all their opponents, and KenPom actually has Auburn's schedule ranked more difficult than Florida's. Up to this point in the season, Auburn has demonstrated that it's highly proficient on both ends of the court and has the wins to back it up.
Laying points with a college basketball team isn't always the best idea, but this is a case where it makes sense based on how these teams have played through non-conference season. Florida has not given any indication that it's capable of competing with a good team, having lost by at least seven points (and 20-plus on a couple of occasions) in its last four games against quality opponents. It's certainly possible the fifth time is the charm, but I'm not betting on it. I'll take the home team in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Auburn -5
Xavier at 
St. John's
Xavier is scorching hot, currently riding a six-game win streak and scoring at least 73 points in every victory. During this stretch, Xaiver has collected wins over West Virginia, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, and earlier in the season, the Musketeers also took down Florida. Overall, the Musketeers have played the 49th-most difficult schedule in the country, per KenPom, so they're thoroughly battle-tested and their stats are incredibly telling. Xavier has established itself as one of the best offensive teams in the land, ranking top-10 in adjusted offensive efficiency while making 41 percent of three-point attempts, the third-highest percentage among all D1 teams. Furthermore, Xavier has the second-highest assist rate in the country, so it knows how to find open shots and utilize all five players on the court.
St. John's, on the other hand, can't claim any similar accolades. The Red Storm's offense has been wildly inconsistent, coming off a game in which it scored just 63 points against a Villanova team that has the third-worst adjusted defensive efficiency among Big East teams, per KenPom. Then, only a couple of weeks ago, St. John's mustered just 64 points at home against a weak New Hampshire team. The other problem when evaluating St. John's, especially compared to Xavier, is that it has had one of the easiest non-conference schedules possible, ranking No. 345 in difficulty, per KenPom. The Red Storm have only played in three games worth noting, an overtime victory on a neutral court over Syracuse, an 11-point road loss to Iowa State and a 15-point loss at Villanova. St. John's flunked its two toughest tests so far this season, and now it welcomes its toughest opponent to date.
Considering the resumes of these two teams, and the stats they've put up, it's hard not to come to the conclusion that these teams are not remotely close to being on the same level. Strange things can happen on the road against conference opponents, so anything's possible, but I find it hard to believe Xavier's explosive offensive won't outscore St. John's on Wednesday. I'll take the Musketeers given a short line.
College Basketball Best Bet: Xavier -1.5
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Missouri +3
- Auburn -5
- Xavier -1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the College Basketball odds page on RotoWire.
If you're in Maryland, sign up at BetMGM using the BetMGM Maryland Bonus Code.
