This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Wednesday brings us a loaded college hoops board, as we have many prolific major conference teams taking the court. Here are my predictions for a few of the games on the slate.
Northwestern 
at Penn State 
Northwestern has one of the best wins of the season, knocking off Purdue at the beginning of December. Since the epic win, the Wildcats have had extreme highs and lows. Less than two weeks after beating the Boilermakers, Northwestern lost at home to Chicago State, a team with a 7-15 record, dimming the Wildcats' luster. A week ago, they lost by 30 points to Illinois, 96-66, before defeating Michigan State on Sunday, 88-74.
The biggest problem for Northwestern is its defense. It's not readily apparent, but it's easily been the worst defensive team in the Big Ten through conference play. In league games this season, the Wildcats rank last in the Big Ten in the following defensive categories: efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed, free-throw attempt rate and block percentage; and then they rank second-to-last in defensive rebounding percentage and two-point field goal percentage. On the flip side, Northwestern has been great at scoring, posting the third-highest offensive efficiency rating in the Big Ten during conference play, the lowest offensive turnover percentage and the second-highest three-point field goal percentage, knocking down 46 percent of shots from behind the arc. Based on the profile of this team, any game they're involved with has a good chance of having a high score.
Penn State, similarly, has also had massive defensive issues throughout the season. At one point, the Nittany Lions endured five straight losses, allowing over 85 points to Texas A&M, Butler and VCU, before allowing offensively challenged Bucknell to score 76 points for their fourth loss in the same streak. Penn State finally snapped their long losing streak on December 9 when they defeated Ohio State, 83-80, again allowing a ton of points. More recently, the Nittany Lions opened the New Year with a loss at Michigan State, 92-61. To be fair, I should note that Penn State finally had a better defensive showing in its most recent game, a 79-73 victory over Michigan, but this one game can't be characterized as a lockdown performance.
Given the major defensive issues of each team and Penn State's propensity for speeding up the pace, I like our odds of seeing a high-scoring game. Penn State is playing at the 45th fastest tempo on offense among all D1 teams, causing most of their games to end with a high number of possessions. For these reasons, I'm taking the over in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 141.5
Oklahoma 
at TCU 
Oklahoma has had an impressive start to the season, winning 13 of 14 games while taking down noteworthy teams such as Providence and Iowa State. The Sooners have won most of their games with elite defense, ranking 12th in efficiency, although its offense isn't bad either, ranking 44th on that side of the court.
TCU, meanwhile, also has an excellent record at 11-3, although it doesn't have any high-quality wins up to this point. The Horned Frogs nearly won in their last game at Kansas this past Saturday, but they blew a two-point lead with under two minutes and lost. Considering the competitive nature of the game, and the numbers they've put up throughout the season, the Horned Frogs have a prime opportunity on Wednesday to collect their first resume-building win of the season.
Neither of these teams has many flaws, however, Oklahoma has one and it will likely be a major issue on Wednesday. The Sooners have good shooting numbers, but they do not take care of the ball. They rank 228th in offensive turnover percentage among all D1 teams, and this is the last trait you want when facing TCU because the Horned Frogs' best defensive skill is causing turnovers, ranking 11th in defensive turnover percentage. Additionally, Oklahoma is prone to having its shots blocked, ranking 235th in offensive block rate, while TCU is also great in that area as well, ranking 88th in the same category on defense.
On the other end of the court, we have a mostly even matchup. TCU's offense is ranked slightly lower in efficiency, coming in at 40th compared to Oklahoma's defense, but otherwise, it's a fair fight across the board. For example, TCU is exceptional at securing offensive boards, ranking 20th in offensive rebounding rate, although Oklahoma isn't bad on the defensive glass, ranking 51st. Even still, a small advantage like this could make all the difference in a game where the margin of error is razor-thin.
All things considered, it's hard not to roll with the home team in this spot. TCU's defense matches up well with Oklahoma's offense, and the latter is also highly proficient at scoring. I'm laying the points with TCU.
College Basketball Best Bet: TCU -4
Florida 
at Mississippi 
Florida tipped off conference season with a home loss to Kentucky, ending the former's six-game win streak. The Gators' record now stands at 10-4 without any bad losses, but then they don't have any truly impressive wins, either.
The Rebels finally suffered their first loss of the season after their recent trip to Tennessee. The game was ugly, but Mississippi had quite a run before the stumble, winning 13 straight games, and earning quality wins over Memphis and UCF along the way. The Rebels haven't been tested much outside of these three opponents, so Wednesday's game will tell us a lot about their long-term prospects.
On paper, Mississippi is well-equipped to score against Florida. The Rebels are among the sharpest three-point shooting teams in the nation, making over 40 percent as a team, a critical skill in this matchup because Florida is much more stout in the paint compared to the perimeter. The Gators are holding opponents to 45 percent on shots inside the arc, the 38th-lowest percentage allowed, compared to the 186th-lowest percentage allowed on three-point attempts. The Rebels have five players who are making over 38 percent of three-pointers (min. 20 attempts), and all five of these players are also the most used and receive the most playing time on the team. If there's an opening on the perimeter, it's a good bet that the Rebels will have a reliable shooter ready to fire.
Going in the other direction, Mississippi isn't nearly as good on defense, or at least not yet anyway. New head coach Chris Beard is in his first year with the team but has previously coached up teams to an elite defensive level, so one can reasonably presume it's just a matter of time before the Rebels are at a similar height. In the meantime, they currently rank 132nd in efficiency but have good numbers otherwise. Mississippi ranks in the top 100 of the nation in defensive turnover percentage, defensive free-throw attempt rate, two-point field goal percentage, three-point field goal percentage, and block percentage.
Florida has a lot of talent, so it's certainly capable of a tough road win, but ultimately I like our chances with the home team a bit more. As already mentioned, Mississippi has special outside scoring capabilities, making it built to take advantage of Florida's defensive weakness. I'm taking the points with the home team in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Mississippi +2.5
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Northwestern at Penn State - Over 141.5
- TCU -4
- Mississippi +2.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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