This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Wednesday's college hoops slate features many prominent teams as conference season heats up. Steve Peralta previews the action and shares his best bets.
Duke at NC State
Duke, coming off its first ACC loss of the season, bounced back against Florida State in its most recent game. Aside from its conference loss, Duke put together an excellent resume during non-conference season. The Blue Devils won games against Xavier, Ohio State and Iowa, and they even nearly defeated Kansas to boot. All in all, Duke is an incredibly balanced team, with its top-ranked freshman class (per 247sports) mostly meeting its lofty expectations.
NC State only has four losses this season, and all of the opponents had one thing in common -- they're good at scoring. Specifically, NC State has faced four teams this season that rank top-50 in KenPom's offensive adjusted efficiency standings, and it lost all four matchups by six points or more. Duke enters Wednesday's game ranked at No. 22 on offense, so it seems the Wolfpack will once again face an uphill battle. NC State looked good prior to playing conference opponents, but the Wolfpack are now 1-3 against ACC teams, with the lone victory coming against lowly Louisville. It lost all three of the other conference games by seven points or more.
Road conference victories are never guaranteed, as Duke was reminded in its last road game, but in this case, Duke appears poised to get the win with a far superior offense. Duke is the better team on both ends of the court and has more talent. I'll take the road team given a short line to work with.
College Basketball Best Bet: Duke -4
Illinois at 
Northwestern
Offensively, this is not a great matchup for Illinois. Northwestern enters Wednesday's game with the seventh-best defense in the country in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom, and it's especially fortified on the interior, holding opponents to 39 percent on shots attempted inside the arc, the lowest two-point field goal percentage allowed among all D1 teams. This is key because Illinois has done most of its damage inside the paint this season, and Northwestern's defense can take this away. Furthermore, Illinois has done a poor job taking care of the ball, ranking No. 306 in offensive turnover rate. This is never a good trait, but it's made much worse when facing an opportunistic defense like Northwestern, one that ranks No. 29 in the country in defensive turnover rate. Illinois recently played Missouri, a team that's also great at stealing the ball, and the game was an utter disaster for Illinois. The Fighting Illini turned the ball over 17 times, and the Tigers blew them out, 93-71.
Defensively, Illinois was pretty stout earlier on, but the Illini have lost some luster as we go deeper into the season. Illinois has allowed 70-plus points to each of the last four major conference teams it has played -- not a great sign heading into conference season. Illinois has failed to cover the spread in four of its last six games, further underlining its recent dip in expected production.
Northwestern has been inconsistent when it comes to scoring, but nevertheless it still usually finds a way to get the job done. During December, not only did the Wildcats win all five games, but, against its best opponents, the Wildcats scored 70 points at Michigan State and then put up 83 points against DePaul. Wednesday's game will likely play out like a textbook Big Ten grinder, and when it's all said and done, my money is on the better defensive team and the team that's less likely to turn the ball over. I'll take the home team and the points in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Northwestern +3
TCU at 
Baylor
TCU inexplicably lost to Northwestern State back on Nov. 14, but that game is now a distant memory. Since suffering its only loss of the season, TCU has won 10 consecutive games, collecting quality wins over Iowa, Providence, Utah and Texas Tech along the way. TCU also held both Iowa and Providence to under 70 points, two high-powered offensive teams that rank top-30 in adjusted efficiency. Perhaps more impressively, TCU had covered the spread in six of its last seven games before missing the cover by a single point in its most recent matchup against Texas Tech -- a six-point home victory in which TCU was favored by 6.5 points. In any event, TCU is scorching hot and has shown that it's capable of holding down strong offensive teams while scoring on stout defensive teams.
Baylor enters Wednesday's game coming off a 15-point road loss to Iowa State, which is not a great result any way you cut it. It's worth mentioning that Baylor didn't have star guard LJ Cryer available due to injury, but the Bears had him in its other two losses of the season, a no-show performance at Marquette in which the team got bulldozed 97-60, and then an eight-point loss against Virginia in mid-November. Scott Drew told reporters on Tuesday that LJ Cryer is out of concussion protocol and has been practicing, so at this point, his status appears to be a game-time decision.
Either way, I'm expecting a tenacious TCU team to put up a fight on Wednesday. TCU's defense is similar to Iowa State's in that they're both physical and excellent at causing turnovers. Baylor has major issues with getting the ball stolen this season, ranking No. 313 in offensive steal rate, which plays right into TCU's hands, as the Horned Frogs are stealing the ball at the 29th-highest rate among all D1 teams. This problem partially doomed Baylor in its recent game against Iowa State, and now the Bears now face a similar challenge again Wednesday. I'll take the points in what figures to be a tightly-contested conference game.
College Basketball Best Bet: TCU +5
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Duke -4
- Northwestern +3
- TCU +5
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