This article is part of our College Hoops Barometer series.
On the precipice of the NCAA Tournament, we'll take a look at the bubble teams. Who's in, who's on the fringe, and who's got some work left to do? Of course, all of this is subject to change as the conference tournaments begin in earnest. Beware the dreaded bid stealers. Conference tournament winners that otherwise would have not made the big dance on resume alone will shrink the bubble.
We'll be using a variety of measurements, including conference record, overall record, and the good ol' eye test to hash out which teams are worthy and which teams should be left out in the cold. As a refresher, the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) is used, which takes into account a variety of factors, including individual game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency and the quality of wins and losses. In addition, wins (and losses) are now separated into Quadrants, depending on the caliber of opponent as well as the location of wins. To simplify, Quadrant 1 wins are the most valuable and come against the strongest competition. Illinois currently has the most Quadrant 1 wins with nine. By contrast, Quadrant 4 losses are the worst result, coming against inferior squads. Most teams have wins and losses in at least three quadrants, so it is important to not just look at Quadrant 1 wins, though those are certainly most likely to help a school's cause.
The added wrinkle this year is, of course, the impact of COVID-19. There have been fewer games this season in general. Likewise, there is a greater disparity than in years past in terms of the amount of games played from program to program. For example, Duke played 18 conference games in the ACC, while Louisville played just 13.
Even with more numbers to crunch and less games to work with, we are still left with the same questions. What matters more, big wins or bad losses? Should a sub-.500 conference record automatically preclude your squad from inclusion in the NCAA Tournament? How about a .500-record overall? How important is how a team is playing at the time of Selection Sunday? We'll tackle these queries and more in the Bubble Edition of the College Hoops Barometer.
UPGRADE
VCU – The inclusion of the Rams on this list could become academic by Sunday, as VCU faces St. Bonaventure in the Championship Game of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament. The Rams may be in even without the automatic berth, though. They have a NET rating of 35 (remember, 68 teams are included in the final field but only 32 get automatic bids). The Rams have two Quadrant I wins, though two Quadrant III losses. However, the Rams went 6-0 in Quadrant II contests. They also beat fellow bubble squads Utah State and Memphis earlier this season, and rather handily too. The Rams would certainly love to guarantee a spot in March Madness with a victory on Sunday, though they are in a pretty good spot even if they fall to the Bonnies.
Michigan State – The Spartans have reeled off a bevy of impressive wins in the last couple of weeks. In fact, they upset three teams ranked in the top 5 (Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan). The latest win this past Sunday over the Wolverines pushed Michigan State's Quadrant I win total to 5. The NET ranking for the Spartans also got pushed up to 65. While the Spartans are just 5-9 in Quadrant I outings, that is largely a product of playing in arguably the top conference in the nation this season. The Spartans also do not have any Quadrant III or Quadrant IV losses. What could hurt the Spartans, even in such a competitive conference, is that they are currently under .500 (9-11) in Big Ten action. An under-.500 record in conference play used to be the kiss of death for tournament chances, but has become less valued over the past few seasons with the influx of new data. The Spartans have been playing much better now than a month or two ago and can clearly beat anyone on a given night. They certainly pass the eye test of late. It would be difficult with so many high quality wins for the Spartans to be left out of the mix.
Boise State/Utah State/Colorado State – I'm lumping all three of these teams together because they are all incredibly close. In a perfect world for the Mountain West, the conference could have four teams in the big dance, something that has not happened since 2013. San Diego State looks like a lock, but the remaining three squads reside on various levels of the fringe. All three schools have two Quadrant I wins. Boise State has the highest NET rating (44) but also has the only Quadrant IV loss of the three resumes. Utah State has a NET rating of 48, while Colorado State has a NET of 50. The Rams have zero bad losses, though, while Utah State does have two Quadrant III losses. Boise State has the most difficult path in terms of remaining schedule, as it has to play a feisty Nevada squad followed by a likely date with top-seeded San Diego State. Meanwhile, Utah State and Colorado State are on a collision course on their side of the bracket of the Mountain West Tournament, with the winner gaining a seat in the conference final, and likely with it, a bid to the big dance. However, upset losses could sink any or all chances. We could know the fate of the Mountain West even prior to Selection Sunday.
CHECK STATUS
Drake – The Bulldogs started the season on an 18-game winning streak, but finished the year 7-4 and fell to Loyola Chicago in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Championship. On the positive side, Drake has a NET of 47. However, they have just one Quadrant I win, as compared to two Quadrant III losses. Drake's best win came against the aforementioned Ramblers earlier in the season. What will hurt Drake is the lack of competition; they played just seven total Quadrant I and Quadrant II games combined. The Bulldogs did go 5-0 in Quadrant II matchups. The Bulldogs will be the classic case of an elite mid-major versus a middle-of-the-pack Power Conference squad. Right now Drake is firmly on the bubble, holding its breath that other bid stealers do not emerge from the other conference tourneys.
Louisville – An extended delay from COVID impacted the flow of Louisville's season, though the Cardinals still finished the regular season at 13-6 overall, including 8-5 in the ACC. A winning record in an extremely difficult conference certainly gives the Cardinals a bump, though playing the fewest conference games may have also aided their cause. Louisville has just one Quadrant I win, along with one Quadrant III loss. The Cardinals have a NET rating of 52 and did go 6-0 in Quadrant II contests. Still, the resume for the Cardinals is devoid of big wins, which could really hurt them. The resume is solid, albeit unspectacular. We will see if the committee rewards the consistency or frowns upon the lack of dazzling triumphs.
Syracuse – It makes sense to put these two ACC squads together, as they have very similar resumes. The Orange also have one Quadrant I victory and one Quadrant III loss, along with a NET rating of 49. Syracuse went 4-1 in Quadrant II contests. Syracuse finished 9-7 in the ACC, and 15-8 overall. Syracuse beat Virginia Tech, Clemson and North Carolina -- all likely tournament teams. Ironically, Louisville's biggest win also came versus Virginia Tech; Syracuse never played Louisville due to COVID issues. These two teams are so close on paper, that I believe either both will get in or neither will get in.
St. John's – There's a lot to like about the state of St. John's basketball after watching this season. In fact, at one time last month it looked all but certain that the Johnnies would make the big dance. They reeled off six-straight wins, which included a double-digit win over then No. 3 Villanova. However, the Johnnies have gone just 3-3 since that time, including dismal losses to Butler and DePaul, the two worst teams in the Big East. As a result, the Johnnies have two Quadrant I wins, one Quadrant III loss and a Quadrant IV defeat. Interestingly, they split the season series with Seton Hall, another bubble program, and that is who they face in the quarterfinals of the Big East Tournament. It feels like the loser of that game will have an extremely difficult chance of gaining inclusion in the field of 68.
DOWNGRADE
Saint Louis – The good news for the Billikens is that they have a NET rating of 45. The bad news is that they have just two Quadrant I wins, two Quadrant II wins, and two Quadrant III losses. The Billikens got waxed by top-seeded St. Bonaventure in the Atlantic 10 semifinal on Saturday. Thus, they have no more games to play to aid their cause. In addition, due to COVID, Saint Louis only played 10 conference games, and went 6-4 in conference action. They did beat the Bonnies earlier this season, but that and a win over an LSU squad that will not make the NCAA Tournament are the two biggest triumphs of the season for Saint Louis. This will be an agonizing week for the Billikens to wait, as they can only sit back and watch until Selection Sunday.
Xavier – The Musketeers dealt with two different stretches of COVID cancellations; they played by far the fewest Big East games in the conference (13). Perhaps with a normal schedule they would have had more than just one Quadrant I victory. The Musketeers also have no bad losses. Xavier has a NET rating of 58. The Musketeers could be hurt by poor play down the stretch of the season, as they have dropped three of their four and five of their last seven contests. Interestingly, though, one of their wins over that span came against No. 13 Creighton. Still, the Musketeers started the season 8-0, but have gone 5-7 since then. I believe they are getting a pass by the pundits instead of being punished for circumstances largely out of their control. Still, if we are going off of resume, I would probably lean towards St. John's (the teams split their season series) if taking another team from the Big East.
Memphis – The Tigers have a NET of 53, but do not have a single Quadrant I victory. After a rough start to the season, Memphis played inspired basketball in the second half of the year. The Tigers won nine of their final 11 games of the regular season, and gave Houston everything they had Sunday on the road. Memphis lost on a three-point buzzer-beater from half court. A win there would have not only given the Tigers a signature victory, but also kept a winning streak alive at seven games. Instead, the Tigers now have some work to do in the conference tournament.
Duke – The Blue Devils find themselves in an extremely unfamiliar position; there is a very good chance that Duke gets left out of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1995. Coach K's squad has two Quadrant I wins but also two Quadrant III losses. Duke finished .500 in ACC Conference play with a record of 9-9. The opt-out of Jalen Johnson certainly did not help. Still, the Blue Devils looked to be making strides towards claiming a bid during a three-game winning streak that included an impressive victory over Virginia. However, Duke then dropped its final three games of the regular season, including an 18-point drubbing at the hands of their bitter rivals at North Carolina. As a result, Duke has some serious work to do to make the big dance. In fact, it could be ACC Tournament Champions or bust for Coach K and company. The Blue Devils started off the ACC tourney with a victory over a hapless BC squad, but a date with aforementioned Louisville on Wednesday will pose a much stiffer task. Duke still has a NET of 51, though.
