This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
We're back from a brief holiday hiatus for some DFS college hoops, where DraftKings again has a $2,000 first place prize available in their main contest. It's not a typical day for me to cover, so we've got some team's I'm not as familiar with suiting up, so hopefully I can find some new/different ideas in an effort to take this down!
Five games are available for us to sort through, tipping between 7:00 and 10:00 p.m. EST. We've got two Pac-12 conference showdowns, and some really low game totals. Three come with totals of 140 or greater, but in two of those, we've got large spreads where the underdog isn't likely to score 65 points. Coppin State comes at a slate-low 49.5 point implied total, so we can almost write them completely off.
Top Players
Julian Reese, F, Maryland ($8,300)
The Terps boast the slate's two highest-priced players, and I prefer Reese over Jahmir Young ($8,700) due to the price break and suring up our frontcourt. Make no mistake, Young is in a great spot, and I'm not fading him in the least, I just want forward stability. Reese is off his worst game of the season, fouling out in 22 minutes against UCLA, so I'm banking on a big bounce back. Coppin State ranks 278th defensively and Reese should have 20 pounds on any defender. Flirting with a double-double is the minimum expectation.
Boogie Ellis, G, USC ($8,100)
This looks to be the safest play on the slate. Elllis has been priced as high as $9,000, plays in the game with the highest total and closest expected spread, and has gone for 39.5 DKP or greater four times, showing the upside we need while also offering great stability. He's off a stinker of a game, posting just 3.5 DKP, but he still had a 25.7 percent usage rate there, he simply wasn't needed. Ellis posted 32.5 DKP against the Ducks last year when the Trojans arguably had more options, and anything less would be a disappointment.
Middle Tier
Pop Isaacs, G, Texas Tech ($6,900)
I don't find Isaacs to be a must-play, but the Red Raiders are expected to score nearly 80 points, and all five of their starters are priced between $6,100 and $7,600. At a sub 7k price, even if it's just $100 less, it's impossible to find a greater opportunity for a player. Isaacs has a 28.7 percent usage rate over the last five while averaing 15.4 shots over his last eight. The problem is he's woefully inefficient, shooting just 33.3 percent from the floor and 24.6 percent from 3-point range. Sam Houston State defends the three well enough, but doesn't play slow either. Perhaps this is a spot for Isaacs to ease off the long hoists, get into the lane and improve his percentages.
Elias Cato, G/F, Central Arkansas ($5,700)
This slate has two Pac-12 matchups and three Power 5 schools facing overmatched opponents. Do we completely ignore those three teams, or take one smaller shot and hope for the best and some value? Cato is priced higher than I'd like, but he gives us a pay-down frontcourt option. He stands at 6-foot-9, started the team's last game and saw 34 minutes. He was dynamic early in the year, and has averaged 19.5 DKP in two games against Power 5 opponents previously. The matchup isn't ideal with Texas Tech being sound defensively and playing slow, but he'll come with low roster percentages and should give us a 3x return with a 2x floor.
Bargain Options
Le'Tre Darthard, G, Oklahoma ($4,400)
Perhaps this is a reach, but this matchup sets up perfectly for Darthard. We know we want shares of the Sooner offense, which is expected to score nearly 90 points against Central Arkansas. The Bears rank 343rd defensively and 342nd in defending the 3-point line. Darthard counters that with 50 3-point attempts, the second highest in this lineup, connecting at a reasonable 36.0 percent clip. The expected blowout nature should lend confidence to using a non-starter. Darthard has reached double-digit fantasy points in three straight and has shown a massive ceiling. The matchup suggests he'll get open looks.
Berke Buyuktuncel, F, UCLA ($4,300)
This is a gross slate for value, particularly within the frontcourt. Thankfully, the top options aren't overpriced, and we don't have to reach. If stars-and-scrubs is your build style, Buyuktuncel has some appeal. He was highly active in 12 minutes in his return to action from a three-game absence, and should slot into double-digit minutes here again. There's no ceiling, but a 3x return is certainly possible. It's going to be a slow, low-scoring game. We just ask for minutes and rebounds here. Aday Mara is priced lower and has more upside, but he's been far less consistent. This is digging really deep, and I don't think we need to on this slate. But even 10 DKP points here can prove valuable.
