Final Four Preview: UConn vs. Alabama

NCAA Tournament Final Four Preview: UConn vs. Alabama

Connecticut Huskies, No. 1 Seed, East Region

Backcourt: Similar to their opponent, Connecticut's guards are the straw that stirs the drink here. Tristen Newton averaged a team-high 15.0 points and 6.0 assists, adding 6.7 rebounds, while Cam Spencer put up 14.4 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.4 steals while shooting a team-best 44.0 from 3-point range. They both are capable scorers at all levels and impact the game in any and all ways possible. This duo will have a combined five inches on their adversaries, allowing them to contest perimeter shots.

Frontcourt: Connecticut is anchored by 7-foot-2, 280-pound sophomore center Donovan Clingan. Clingan honestly looked awful in the Sweet 16 against San Diego State and bruising forward Jaedon LeDee, but bounced back against Illinois for a double-double. He comes with a team-high 25.3 percent usage rate, but only averages 22.1 minutes and has played over 23 just once over the last two weeks. Sophomore Alex Karaban and freshman Stephon Castle round out the Huskies young starting forwards. Karaban is the team's second-best 3-point shooter at 38.2 percent, and both average north of four rebounds. There's not much production from the reserves, but Samson Johnson gives them more size and 10+ minutes to spell Clingan.

X-Factor: Though all five Husky starters score in double-figures, making them incredibly difficult to isolate and take away one individual piece, they're getting steady production from Hassan Diarra off the bench of late as well, as he averaged 10.5 points, 3.5 rebounds and 3.0 assists last week in Boston. If UConn really is going to get a sixth reliable scorer (Diarra averaged 6.2 points during the year), then we may as well just fast forward to the net cutting ceremony. I'd expect some three-guard lineups from Alabama, which Connecticut can choose to match, giving Diarra his chances to continue his hot shooting.

Who They Beat To Get Here:

No. 16 Stetson 91-52

No. 9 Northwestern 75-58

No. 5 San Diego State 82-52

No. 3 Illinois 77-52

UCONN will win IF: It doesn't play to Alabama's frantic pace. Connecticut can get up and down and score with anyone, but the Huskies also rank 315th in adjusted tempo, per KenPom. The Crimson Tide will do their best to turn this into a track meet, gain as many possessions as possible and try to wear down the Huskies like they did North Carolina in the second half. Connecticut has given up 90 points just once, 80 or more two other times, and 70+ just seven times all year, with no tournament opponent reaching 60. I'm not anticipating Alabama being held under 70, but if they get into the 80s, Connecticut may be uncomfortable and 3-point reliant. More on the arch coming up next.

PREDICTION

One minor theme that emerged in two of UConn's three losses was 3-point shooting. Against Kansas and Seton Hall, the Huskies went a combined 7-of-37 (18.9 percent) from behind the arch, and against Kansas and Creighton, those two went 23-of-42 (54.8 percent). No opponent has shot better than 26.7 percent against Connecticut over the past two weeks. Connecticut doesn't need to light it up from outside, but we know Alabama is going to hoist it early and often, and how well UConn defends it will dictate the outcome. Sight lines in the cavernous NFL stadium could impact Alabama as much as Connecticut's defense. You can't take plays off against this team and must compete for a full 40 minutes, which I don't think the Crimson Tide are capable of doing. Barring an incredibly hot shooting night, Connecticut will find a run or two and stretch this out. Alabama does seem to offer some matchup concerns, but it's not enough for an upset. CONNECTICUT 87-74.

~Chris Bennett
 

Alabama Crimson Tide, West Region No. 4 Seed

Backcourt: The strength of Alabama's team starts in the backcourt with its star guard, Mark Sears. During the team's run to the Final Four, he's averaging 19.4 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 1.8 steals per game on 51 percent shooting. His backcourt teammate, Aaron Estrada has been no slouch himself. Although the fifth-year senior has struggled with his shooting efficiency a bit during the tournament thus far, he's helped out in other areas with at least seven boards and five assists in three of four games. The duo doesn't come off the floor much, with Estrada playing 35+ minutes and Sears 38+ in the last three games. 

Frontcourt: Alabama has received plenty of help from its frontcourt over the past two games on both ends of the floor. In the Sweet 16 win over UNC, Grant Nelson elevated his game with 24 points and 12 boards to go along with five blocks to spark the upset. Then, it was Nick Pringle's turn in the Elite Eight, as he received his second straight start in the absence of Latrell Wrightsell and responded with a double-double. 6-11 freshman Jarin Stevenson was also a key contributor on the perimeter against Clemson, pouring in five threes to help extend the lead late in the second half. 

X-Factor: With all the playmakers on the Crimson Tide, it's easy to forget about 6-6 wing Rylan Griffen. His usage rate is only 17.9 percent on the season, but he chipped in with eight assists Saturday and the team wouldn't have gotten past the Tar Heels without his 19 points. Griffen's shooting splits of 58/39/82 are about as efficient as they come. Outside of Sears, Griffen is the only player that has played well in every tournament game and it's difficult to imagine them having success Saturday without him. 

Who They Beat to Get Here:

College of Charleston 109-96

Grand Canyon 72-61

North Carolina 89-87

Clemson 89-82

ALABAMA Will Win If: The game turns into a track meet AND it lights up the scoreboard. Beating the Huskies surely won't be an easy task, and Alabama will need to do multiple things well to have a chance. After all, UConn has won 10 consecutive tournament games by double digits. While Alabama has had it struggles defensively, this is a squad that can go toe-to-toe with anyone when it comes to scoring, having put up 89+ in all but one of their tournament games. There's a big difference in pace between these two teams, as Alabama plays at the ninth fastest tempo in the country compared to 315th for UConn. Alabama needs to push to playing at its own pace to pull the upset.

PREDICTION

The oddsmakers don't expect this one to be close, with UConn checking in as a massive, 11.5-point favorite. So, the question seems to be more about whether Alabama keep this competitive instead of, can the Tide win? I'm not going to call for the upset, but I do think the Tide can keep this one close. In UConn's last two losses, it shot a combined 7-of-37 from three (18.9 percent), so it's not as if it's immune to a cold night, similar to what we saw in the first half against Illinois. Alabama could also benefit from getting Donovan Clingan in foul trouble. Another positive is that Wrightsell (head) is expected to return for the Final Four after missing the last two games, and his 44 percent three-point shooting will be much needed. It's hard to imagine them winning this game without getting hot from deep, and the Crimson Tide certainly have enough options for that to happen considering they've made 27 threes over the last two games at over a 40 percent clip. I expect it to be close throughout but for the Huskies to ultimately prevail. UConn 88, Alabama 81.

~Ryan Pohle