This article is part of our NCAA Tournament Preview series.
March Madness 2025: NCAA Tournament Team Preview List
This piece is our accompaniment to the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket on RotoWire for those who want a nice clean list in alphabetical order. Enjoy the Madness!
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Team | Preview |
|---|---|
| Akron | After winning the MAC regular-season and tournament titles, Akron is headed to the Big Dance for the seventh time in program history. Coach John Groce and the Zips play fast, ranking No. 16 in tempo (per KenPom), and they keep bodies fresh with a rotation that often runs 10 deep and ranks 29th in the nation in bench minutes. That leaves little room for a standout scorer, but junior guards Nate Johnson (14.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg) and Tavari Johnson (13.0 ppg, 3.9 apg) lead the way for a consistent unit that ranks top 30 in effective field-goal percentage. Defense often doesn't keep up, ranking 183rd in efficiency, but the Zips defend the perimeter well -- 68th nationally in opponent three-point percentage. The resume doesn't offer much, as Akron lost its only Quad 1 game by 19 points to Saint Mary's and has a 1-2 Quad 2 record. While they have no bad losses, the Zips likely will be overmatched in the first round. |
| Alabama | Thanks in part to a strong SEC, Alabama won 11 Quad 1 games this season, and with no bad |
March Madness 2025: NCAA Tournament Team Preview List
This piece is our accompaniment to the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket on RotoWire for those who want a nice clean list in alphabetical order. Enjoy the Madness!
Think you have what it takes to compete against the experts? Sign up for the RotoWire Bracket Challenge for free to win prizes from jerseys to free website subscriptions.
Team | Preview |
|---|---|
| Akron | After winning the MAC regular-season and tournament titles, Akron is headed to the Big Dance for the seventh time in program history. Coach John Groce and the Zips play fast, ranking No. 16 in tempo (per KenPom), and they keep bodies fresh with a rotation that often runs 10 deep and ranks 29th in the nation in bench minutes. That leaves little room for a standout scorer, but junior guards Nate Johnson (14.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg) and Tavari Johnson (13.0 ppg, 3.9 apg) lead the way for a consistent unit that ranks top 30 in effective field-goal percentage. Defense often doesn't keep up, ranking 183rd in efficiency, but the Zips defend the perimeter well -- 68th nationally in opponent three-point percentage. The resume doesn't offer much, as Akron lost its only Quad 1 game by 19 points to Saint Mary's and has a 1-2 Quad 2 record. While they have no bad losses, the Zips likely will be overmatched in the first round. |
| Alabama | Thanks in part to a strong SEC, Alabama won 11 Quad 1 games this season, and with no bad losses, the Crimson Tide are looking for a second consecutive run to the Final Four. Alabama battled through early season injury and depth issues to rank fourth in KenPom's offensive efficiency metric. Coach Nate Oats' squad plays faster than any team in the country (per KenPom), out-running opponents with leading scorer and fifth-year senior Mark Sears (18.7 ppg, 4.9 apg). The 6-11 Grant Nelson (11.8 ppg, 7.6 rpg) anchors the paint to help the Tide rank fourth nationally in two-point shooting, and sophomore guard Aden Holloway (11.4 ppg) shoots 41.7 percent from three-point range as Alabama is 15th in effective field-goal percentage. The defense doesn't create many turnovers (348th), but it defends the perimeter well (30th in opponent three-point shooting). It's hard to keep pace with the Tide, who can beat anyone. Don't count out Alabama making a national title run. |
| Alabama State | Few could have expected Alabama State to run the table as the five seed in the SWAC tournament, but the Hornets did just that to earn their first NCAA Tournament bid since 2011. Alabama State doesn't look like much on paper, ranking outside the top 250 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom. The Hornets at least protect the basketball well, sporting the fifth-lowest turnover rate in the country. The backcourt is led by sophomore Amarr Knox (14.3 ppg, 1.7 spg) and senior CJ Hines (14.4 ppg), a sharpshooter who has hit a team-high 68 three-pointers at 38.9 percent. The 6-3 TJ Madlock (12.6 ppg, 7.2 rpg) is the leading rebounder from the wing for a team that generally doesn't hit the glass all that well. The Hornets don't have a Quad 1 or 2 win and were beaten by at least 17 points in all three Quad 1 opportunities against Missouri, Cincinnati and SMU. But they have a shot against Saint Francis in the 16-seed play-in game in the South. |
| American | In his second year at the helm, coach Duane Simpkins has American in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2014. The Eagles finished the regular season tied atop the Patriot League but won the conference tournament to secure the automatic bid. That's where the fun likely stops, however. American doesn't have a single win in Quads 1 or 2 and its best victory is a Quad 3 non-conference win against George Washington. The offense runs through 6-9 senior forward Matt Rogers (17.0 ppg, 5.6 rpg), one of seven Eagles with at least 70 three-point attempts. Rogers shoots 39.9 percent from distance while sophomore forward Greg Jones hits 45.1 percent. But American is outside the top 200 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (per KenPom) and ranks 244th in opponent effective FG percentage. The Eagles have a winnable matchup against Mount St. Mary's in the 16-seed play-in game in the East, however. |
| Arizona | Arizona has had a rollercoaster season, starting 4-5 against a tough schedule, then going 13-1 only to finish the regular season losing five of eight before a run to the Big 12 tournament final. But with a top-35 ranking in both offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom, the Wildcats remain a threat. Senior guard Caleb Love (16.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.5 apg) leads a trio of double-digit scorers, though he has questionable shot selection at times and hits only 32.3 percent from deep as the team leader in three-pointers made (84). Arizona struggles on the perimeter, ranking 247th in three-point shooting, but it gets second-chance opportunities with the 20th-ranked offensive rebounding rate thanks to a frontcourt that includes 7-0 Henri Veesaar (9.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg). The Wildcats have 10 Quad 1 wins but also 11 losses, and with a 5-8 record against the KenPom top 25, Arizona's ability when the competition rises is questionable. |
| Arkansas | Coach John Calipari got Arkansas back to the NCAA Tournament in his first year with the program in one of his more impressive coaching feats. Leading scorer Adou Thiero (15.6 ppg, 6.0 rpg) missed the last six games with a knee injury and second-leading scorer Boogie Fland (15.1 ppg, 5.7 apg) has been out since January with a hand injury. Thiero's status for the tournament is unclear, but Fland, a five-star freshman, is expected to play. Complementary players have stepped up, as sophomore DJ Wagner (11.1 ppg, 3.5 apg) took over the point and 6-10 junior Trevon Brazile averaged 12.0 points and 9.5 rebounds in Thiero's absence. The offense struggles at times, ranking 73rd in efficiency (per KenPom) and outside the top 200 in perimeter shooting, but the Razorbacks have a top-20 defense (per KenPom) and protect the rim with the nation's seventh-highest shot-blocking rate. Calipari has the chops to lead Arkansas to a few surprise wins. |
| Auburn | Playing in the nation's best conference this season allowed Auburn to post an incredible 16 Quad 1 victories (three more than any team) as it captured the SEC regular-season title. The top-ranked team in the country much of the year, the Tigers are led by 6-10 senior Johni Broome (18.8 ppg, 11.0 rpg), a National Player of the Year candidate who anchors the attack down low and has 18 double-doubles for the nation's No. 1-ranked offense (per KenPom). There might not be a true standout guard, but 6-7 senior Chad Baker-Mazara (12.7 ppg) leads a group of four in double figures, with each attempting more than 125 three-pointers and converting at least 38 percent. The Tigers are just as tough defensively, ranking fourth in blocked shots rate and fifth in opponent three-point shooting to place 12th in efficiency. While the Tigers lost four of their last five games entering the tournament, no team is more battle-tested than the top overall seed. |
| Baylor | Baylor faced far more adversity than usual this year, but finished 10-10 in the Big 12 and survived the NCAA Tournament bubble. Nearly every starter suffered injuries, and second-leading rebounder Josh Ojianwuna was lost for the year (knee) in early February. That put even more on the shoulders of 6-7 center Norchad Omier (15.9 ppg, 10.9 rpg), who has a tournament-high 21 double-doubles (3rd in the nation), including nine consecutive entering the Big Dance. Omier is the main reason the Bears rank 26th nationally in offensive rebounding rate, with star freshman and projected NBA lottery pickVJ Edgecombe (15.0 ppg, 5.6 rpg) a big contributor as well. Senior guards Jeremy Roach (10.3 ppg) and Jayden Nunn (9.0 ppg), who shoots 41.1 percent from three-point range, help pace the 16th-ranked offense in efficiency (per KenPom). Baylor isn't as stout defensively (58th), especially on the perimeter (277th), and enters the tournament with its lowest seed since 2019. |
| Bryant | After winning the American East regular-season and tournament titles, Bryant is headed to the Big Dance for the second time in program history. The Bulldogs have high-major talent, as leading scorers Rafael Pinzon (18.5 ppg) and Earl Timberlake (15.5 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 4.7 apg) both started their careers at power-5 schools. Each now has multiple seasons under coach Phil Martelli Jr., who runs a fast-paced offense that ranks seventh nationally in tempo (per KenPom). The Bulldogs don't shoot particularly well, but defensively they rank 10th in the nation in block-shot percentage and 43rd in opponent effective shooting percentage. Bryant doesn't have a win in Quads 1 or 2 and has five Quad 4 losses, the latter among the most in the tournament. The Bulldogs' toughest matchup resulted in a 22-point loss to St. John's. Their first-round matchup, Michigan State, might be even better. |
| BYU | The Cougars played their best basketball down the stretch, winning nine in a row before getting bounced in the Big 12 tournament semifinals by Houston. The winning streak included victories against NCAA Tournament teams such as Iowa State, Kansas, Arizona and West Virginia (three on the road). Junior forward Richie Saunders (16.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg), is the driver, shooting 43.3 percent from distance, and 6-9 Egor Demin (10.3 ppg, 5.4 apg, 3.8 rpg) is a freshman from Russia who plays four positions and likely has his sights set on the next level. Big men Keba Keita (7.1 ppg, 7.9 rpg) and Fousseyni Traore (8.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg) split time at center for an offense that ranks sixth nationally in two-point shooting and 12th in efficiency (per KenPom). A relatively weak non-conference schedule makes it fair to question whether first-year coach Kevin Young's team is battled tested enough for an extended run. |
| Clemson | Clemson quietly played its way to second place in the ACC, just a game behind Duke. The Tigers are one of three teams to beat that historically good Duke squad this season and also scored a big non-conference win against Kentucky. With top-25 rankings in offensive and defensive efficiency (per KenPom), Clemson should be overlooked no longer. An all-upperclassmen rotation is led by sixth-year senior guard Chase Hunter (16.4 ppg) who shoots 41.2 percent on three-pointers, but 6-8 Ian Schieffelin (12.8 ppg, 9.4 rpg) and 6-11 Viktor Lakhin (11.6 ppg, 6.3 rpg) provide plenty of scoring down low. The Tigers slow the pace (327th in KenPom's tempo metric) and are deadly from the perimeter. Seven players have attempted more than 60 three-pointers with all but one shooting at least 35 percent, as Clemson ranks 31st nationally in three-point percentage. That could easily serve as the great equalizer to get the Tigers past the first weekend. |
| Colorado State | Colorado State is NCAA Tournament-bound after riding a 10-game winning streak to the Mountain West tournament title. A balanced offense both inside and out is led by star fifth-year guard Nique Clifford (19.0 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 4.4 apg), who shoots 39.8 percent from distance. While Clifford shines, the offense is unselfish, assisting 62.8 percent of made baskets, good for eighth in the nation. The Rams also rank 23rd in effective field-goal percentage, with Kyan Evans (10.2 ppg) adding 43.1 percent three-point shooting. Defensively, CSU is top 20 in rebounding rate. While the Rams are top 50 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (per KenPom), the overall body of work is questionable. Each of CSU's three Quad 1 wins came in conference play, with only one non-conference victory against the KenPom top 100. And with two Quad 3 losses, the Rams could have missed the dance had they not captured the automatic bid. |
| Connecticut | After back-to-back national titles, Connecticut regressed this season to finish third in the Big East. Four of last season's top-5 scorers are gone, but the offense still ranks 14th nationally in efficiency (per KenPom) and is top 30 in both effective shooting percentage and offensive rebound rate. Sophomore guard Solo Ball (14.6 ppg) quadrupled his scoring average from a season ago, shooting a team-high 42.2 percent from distance, and the now-healthy 6-7 freshman Liam McNeeley (14.5 ppg, 6.1 rpg) is a projected NBA lottery pick. Defense has fallen off a cliff, however. The Huskies are 94th in defensive efficiency, ranking 257th in opponent three-point shooting. UConn has encouraging non-conference wins against Baylor, Texas and Gonzaga, and it's never wise to count out coach Dan Hurley, but don't confuse this year's team with the championship units of prior seasons that had significantly more firepower. |
| Creighton | Creighton finished second in the Big East regular season and then advanced to the conference tournament final to earn a fifth consecutive NCAA Tournament bid under coach Greg McDermott. The Bluejays are carried by All-American candidate Ryan Kalkbrenner (19.4 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 2.7 bpg), a 7-1 senior who shoots a tournament-high 65.5 percent from the field. Thanks to Kalkbrenner, Creighton owns the nation's 16th-highest two-point field-goal percentage (57.3) and is 15th in opponent two-point shooting (46.0). The Bluejays lost top transfer Pop Isaacs (hip) after eight games, but senior guard Steven Ashworth (16.3 ppg, 6.8 apg, 4.1 rpg) picked up the slack, shooting 36.9 percent from distance (275 attempts). Creighton is top 45 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (per KenPom), though it ranks 361st in opponent turnover rate. In a weak Big East, with a 6-6 Quad 1 record and a 5-4 Quad 2 record, Creighton might not have trouble with tougher competition. |
| Drake | Drake enters the NCAA Tournament as a mid-major to watch after running away with the Missouri Valley regular season and conference tournament titles. The 30-3 Bulldogs are a combined 6-0 in Quads 1 and 2, including signature wins over tournament-bound Vanderbilt, as well as Kansas State and a few big conference road victories. Junior point guard and MVC Player of the Year Bennett Stirtz (19.1 ppg, 5.7 apg, 4.4 rpg) scored at least 20 points in 18 games this year and is one of three Bulldogs who shoot at least 36 percent from three-point range. Drake's calling card under first-year coach Ben McCollum is playing at the slowest adjusted tempo in the ration (per KenPom). As such, games never get too far out of reach, and with a top-50 defense (per KenPom), including the nation's No. 1 steal rate, the Bulldogs can suffocate less-experienced backcourts. Drake likely will be a popular upset pick as an 11 seed in the West. |
| Duke | Duke is so dominant that it has the highest KenPom Net Rating this century and is the only team this season in the top 5 of both offensive and defensive efficiency. A down year for the ACC is perhaps partly responsible, but the Blue Devils also have non-conference wins against Arizona, Illinois and No. 1 seed Auburn. National Player of the Year frontrunner Cooper Flagg (18.9 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 4.1 apg) sprained an ankle in the ACC tournament, but is expected to play in the Big Dance. Duke could struggle if he is limited, but the Blue Devils still won the conference tournament with him playing only 15 minutes of their first game. Plus, they still have projected NBA lottery picks in 6-7 freshman Kon Knueppel (14.2 ppg), Duke's second-leading scorer, and 7-2 freshman Khaman Maluach (8.2 ppg, 6.7 rpg). Seven players have attempted more than 60 three-pointers, with four hitting at least 39 percent, including upperclassmen Tyrese Proctor (11.8 ppg) and Sion James (8.4 ppg). If Flagg is healthy, Duke is Auburn's biggest threat to a title. |
| Florida | Florida fought through a banner year for the SEC and beat the best, including Auburn, Alabama and Tennessee, on its way to the conference tournament title. Spotless in Quads 2-4, the Gators are one of two teams in the nation (Duke) ranked top 10 in both offensive (3rd) and defensive (7th) efficiency by KenPom. Florida runs two-deep at virtually every position, with guards Walter Clayton (17.5 ppg), Alijah Martin (14.5 ppg) and Will Richard (13.6 ppg) each shooting at least 35 percent from deep. The 6-11 Alex Condon (11.2 ppg, 7.9 rpg) enjoyed a breakout sophomore campaign, and an already deep frontcourt got a boost from the late-season return of 7-1 Micah Handlogten (leg), as Florida ranks eighth in offensive rebound rate. Defensively, the Gators hold opponents to the nation's sixth-lowest effective field-goal percentage and are especially tough against perimeter shooting (7th). With few weaknesses, good health and a battle-tested resume, No. 1-seeded Florida has a great shot at cutting down the nets. |
| Georgia | Georgia finished 8-10 in the SEC, went one-and-done in the conference tournament and had only four Quad 1 wins. But those victories came against elite teams in St. John's, Kentucky, Florida and (at) Texas and, with no bad losses, was enough for coach Mike White to make his first NCAA Tournament appearance in three years at the helm. The Bulldogs' length make them a formidable defense. Georgia is top 10 in KenPom's average height metric, as it ranks 12th nationally in block rate and 30th in opponent effective field-goal percentage, all of which leads to a top-30 rating in defensive efficiency. Offense lands outside the top-50, but the Bulldogs have playmakers in 6-11 freshman Asa Newell (15.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg), a future NBA center, and combo guard Silas Demary (13.4 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 3.1 apg), who shoots 37.6 percent from distance. Three other average eight-plus points, and one needs to step up for Georgia to advance. |
| Gonzaga | It wasn't a banner year for Gonzaga, though after finishing three games behind Saint Mary's in the WCC regular season the Bulldogs gained some redemption by winning the conference tournament. The Zags dominated their conference wins, however -- their average margin of victory was 27.8 points -- which led to a surprising No. 8 NET ranking despite only five Quad 1 wins. Gonzaga ranks ninth offensively and 28th defensively in efficiency (per KenPom), with several superstar players. Senior point guard Ryan Nembhard (10.8 ppg, 9.8 apg) leads the nation in assists and 6-9 senior forward Graham Ike (17.1 ppg, 7.5 rpg) helps the Bulldogs rank 11th nationally in two-point shooting. Senior guard Nolan Hickman (11.0 ppg) hits a team-high 43.6 percent from distance, while a stable of perimeter defenders hold opponents to 30.2 percent three-point shooting (16th). The Zags don't turn it over (4th) and drain free throws (5th), but a 3-5 record against tournament teams doesn't portend well. |
| Grand Canyon | Grand Canyon is back in the NCAA Tournament for the third consecutive year, bringing with it four starters from last year's team that upset Saint Mary's in the first round. The Antelopes play even faster than last season, ranking 14th in KenPom's tempo rating. Leading the breakneck offense is 6-8 senior JaKobe Coles (14.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg) and 6-7 senior Tyon Grant-Foster (14.5 ppg, 6.0 rpg). GCU ranks 149th in offensive efficiency (per KenPom) and doesn't shoot the three well (285th), but it gets to the line a lot, sporting a top-10 FTA/FGA in the country. Defense is also stout for a mid-major, as the Lopes rank 25th in opponent two-point shooting and create opportunities with the nation's 31st-highest turnover rate. Coach Bryce Drew's squad lost its only Quad 1 game by five points to Georgia -- the only tournament team it faced -- but had a Quad 2 win against Stanford and has the tools to pull another upset. |
| High Point | High Point rolled to the Big South regular-season and conference tournament titles for its first NCAA Tournament appearance in program history. Carrying the nation's second-longest active winning streak at 14 games, the Panthers feature a trio of upperclassmen who each average at least 13 points, led by senior combo guard Kezza Giffa (14.8 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 2.5 apg). The team thrives offensively, ranking 25th in offensive efficiency (per KenPom) with the 12th-highest effective field-goal percentage in the nation (56.4). Defense lags, however, as the Panthers are 227th in KenPom's efficiency metric. High Point periodically received top-25 votes this season despite not playing any Quad 1 games. The Panthers' lone Quad 2 win came against AAC second-place finishers North Texas in December. High Point's first-round opponent, Purdue, is the best team it has played all year. |
| Houston | After going 23-1 to close the regular season and running away with the Big 12, Houston earned its third consecutive NCAA Tournament No. 1 seed. Underrated senior guard L.J. Cryer (15.2 ppg) is one of four Cougars who shoot at least 40 percent on three-pointers, as Houston ranks fourth nationally in perimeter shooting (39.8 percent). The Cougars are 26th in turnover rate and 15th in offensive rebounding, and juniors Emanuel Sharp (12.6 ppg) and Milos Uzan (11.5 ppg, 4.3 apg) provide secondary backcourt options for an offense that is 11th in efficiency (per KenPom). Houston once again boasts a top-tier defense -- No. 2 in the nation. A frontcourt led by 6-8 J'Wan Roberts (10.8 ppg, 6.3 rpg) and emerging 6-8 freshman Joseph Tugler (5.6 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 2.1 bpg) holds opponents to the fourth-lowest two-point percentage. With seemingly no holes and a 14-3 Quad 1 record, coach Kelvin Sampson's squad could return to the Final Four for the first time since 2021. |
| Illinois | Illinois packs a punch offensively, ranking 15th in KenPom's efficiency metric and featuring five double-digit scorers, led by NBA lottery candidate Kasparas Jakucionis (15.0 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 4.6 apg). It's also getting healthier, with standout 6-9 freshman Morez Johnson (7.1 ppg, 6.7 rpg) returning from a five-game absence for the Big Ten tournament where he had 17 rebounds and four blocks in two games. The Illini rank top 20 in shooting from inside the arc but struggle from distance, shooting 31.1 percent from three-point range to rank 316th nationally. While the team is respectable top 40 in defensive efficiency, Illinois does not force turnovers much, ranking 360th in turnover rate. Coach Brad Underwood's squad has eight Quad 1 wins, including late-season victories against Michigan and Purdue, and advanced to conference tourney quarterfinals as the seven seed. Inconsistency makes it fair to question whether an extended run is possible, however. |
| Iowa State | Iowa State started the year 15-1, but then the injury bug hit and the Cyclones went 8-7 the rest of the way to finish fifth in the Big 12. A 6-8 sophomore forward, Milan Momcilovic (11.4 ppg) is healthy after a midseason wrist injury, but senior guard Keshon Gilbert (13.4 ppg, 4.1 apg) missed ISU's quarterfinal loss in the conference tournament with a muscle strain. Sixth-man Curtis Jones (17.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg) leads five players in double figures, and Cyclones still have firepower when at full strength, ranking 20th in offensive efficiency (per KenPom) thanks to a top-50 rank in effective field goal percentage. ISU also plays stout defense, as it is top 15 in turnover rate for the 10th-most efficient defense in the nation (per KenPom). Top 10 in both KenPom and the NET, the Cyclones are more than capable of getting to the second weekend. |
| Kansas | Despite a load of new and returning talent, the Jayhawks sputtered to an 11-9 Big 12 record and lost in the quarterfinals of the conference tournament, resulting in the lowest NCAA Tournament seed (No. 7) in coach Bill Self's 22-year tenure. Make no mistake, however, this is not a team the top seeds wants to meet in Round 2. Fifth-year seniors Hunter Dickinson (17.6 ppg,10.0 rpg) and Dajuan Harris (9.2 ppg, 5.7 apg) have more Big Dance experience than any center-guard combo in the field, plus Kansas added a three-point sharpshooter in transfer Zeke Mayo (14.5 ppg), who hits 41.3 percent from deep. While the offense ranks 48th in efficiency (per KenPom), the Jayhawks are 11th in defense, including top 15 in opponent effective field-goal percentage. Few major weaknesses stand out (other than foul shooting -- 222nd), and Kansas is capable of making a run. Ignore the seed. |
| Kentucky | In Kentucky's first year since 2008-09 without John Calipari at the helm, former BYU coach Mark Pope led Big Blue to a solid 10-8 SEC record, with non-conference wins against Duke, Gonzaga and Louisville. Pope re-tooled quickly, grabbing all his starters from the transfer portal. Leading scorer Otega Oweh (16.2 ppg) topped 20 points in six of the last nine games and 6-7 guard Koby Brea (11.5 ppg) shoots a team-high 43.9 percent from long range. The Wildcats rank eighth in offensive efficiency (per KenPom), playing at a top-25 tempo. Defensively, Kentucky struggles on the interior, ranking 289th in opponent two-point shooting, despite the presence of 7-0 Amari Williams (11.0 ppg, 8.5 rpg) in the middle. The Wildcats also lost three-point sharpshooter Jaxson Robinson to a wrist injury and are still without senior guard Kerr Kriisa (foot). But with 11 Quad 1 wins and no bad losses, Kentucky is more than capable of making a run. |
| Liberty | In his second season, coach Ritchie McKay led Liberty to the C-USA regular-season and tournament titles, earning an NCAA Tournament bid for the first time since 2021. Simply put, the Flames can shoot the lights out. A whopping 47.7 percent of their field-goal attempts are from distance, and they convert at the fifth-highest rate in the country (39.0 percent). Liberty also limits opponents to just 28 percent from three-point range, the third lowest. Leading scorers Taelon Peter (13.9 ppg) and Kaden Metheny (13.5 ppg) have cashed 75 and 99 three-pointers, respectively, with Peter shooting a team-high 46.0 percent and Metheny 39.0. Four others have hit at least 20 treys, with three converting at more than 40 percent. Oddly, sharpshooting Liberty is poor from the charity stripe (65.4%, 348th). It also has a bottom-5 offensive rebounding rate, so the shots better fall. Liberty's first-round matchup will be the first Quad 1 opponent it has played this season. |
| Lipscomb | Lipscomb captured a share of the Atlantic Sun regular season before running the table in the conference tournament to secure its second-ever NCAA Tournament bid. The Bisons can matchup up offensively with any mid-major, ranking top 50 in three-point shooting, top 25 inside the arc and top 10 at the foul line. A 6-8 senior, Jacob Ognacevic (20.1 ppg, 8.1 rpg) leads a thin rotation composed entirely of upperclassmen, with three other double-digit scorers. Ognacevic scored in double figures in 32 of 34 games, including the last 26 in a row, with three games of 30-plus. Lipscomb's best win came in Quad 2 against non-conference Chattanooga, but it also lost handily to Arkansas and Kentucky. The Bisons struggle to get second-chance opportunities -- 329th in offensive rebounding rate -- so they'll need the shots to fall to get out of the first round. |
| Louisville | After two seasons as ACC bottom-feeders, Louisville was revitalized this season with new coach Pat Kelsey. The Cardinals finished a game out of first and then advanced to the ACC tournament final (losing to Duke) while winning four Quad 1 games and 11 in Quad 2. Now they're back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019. Kelsey rebuilt the roster with upperclassmen transfers, with no pickup more important than All-American point-guard candidate Chucky Hepburn (16.2 ppg, 5.8 apg, 3.5 rpg), who leads three others in double figures. The Cardinals are top 27 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (per KenPom), and are particularly effective inside the perimeter, ranking 19th in two-point shooting. Outside the perimeter, seniors Reyne Smith (13.4 ppg) and J'Vonne Hadley (12.1 ppg, 7.3 rpg) each shoot 38 percent. Louisville is hot, having won 21 of its last 23 games, but a down year in the ACC raises questions of how far it might go. |
| Marquette | Marquette was top 15 in the country most of the non-conference season with wins against Maryland, Purdue and Wisconsin -- all top-5 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. Things went downhill in February (despite a soft year for the Big East) as the Golden Eagles finished the regular season going 4-6. Senior guard Kam Jones (19.3 ppg, 5.9 apg, 4.5 rpg) is one of four players in double figures in a thin rotation -- the Golden Eagles rank 298th in bench minutes. Despite struggling from the perimeter (32.5%, 245th), Marquette is 32nd in offensive efficiency (per KenPom). In fact, 6-11 center Ben Gold is the best three-pointer shooter (37.0%), which isn't a great sign, though two others shoot at least 36 percent. Defensively, the Golden Eagles are also top 30 in efficiency, ranking top 20 in turnovers. Even with the strong start, Marquette has just six Quad 1 wins, and it's worth noting coach Shaka Smart has advanced past the Sweet Sixteen once in three tournament appearances. |
| Maryland | Coach Kevin Willard has Maryland back in the NCAA Tournament after missing last year. The Terrapins ended the regular season on an 11-2 run to finish second in the Big Ten, ranking 10th in the NET and 13th on KenPom. Willard has plenty of weapons for his top-30 offense (per KenPom), including 6-10 five-star freshman Derik Queen (16.3 ppg, 9.0 rpg) and 6-9 senior Julian Reese (13.1 ppg, 9.0 rpg). In the backcourt, point guard Ja'Kobi Gillespie (14.7 ppg, 5.0 apg) shoots 41.2 percent from the perimeter while Selton Miguel (12.0 ppg) and Rodney Rice (13.9 ppg) hit 41.6 and 37.6 percent, respectively. Maryland is strong defensively on the primer too, limiting opponents to 30.7 percent three-point shooting (27th) for a defense that ranks sixth in efficiency. With a 8-7 Quad 1 record and no bad losses, Maryland certainly has the tools to surprise Big Ten critics in the Big Dance. |
| McNeese State | With only one loss since Dec. 22, McNeese is dancing for the second consecutive season under coach Will Wade. The Cowboys return multiple double-digit scorers in forward Christian Shumate (10.6 ppg) and guards DJ Richards (10.1 ppg) and Javohn Garcia (13.0 ppg), in addition to key transfers Sincere Parker (12.2 ppg) and Quadir Copeland (8.7 ppg, 4.5 apg). The offense is balanced with Richards shooting 45.0 percent from three-point range while getting second-chance opportunities with a top-45 offensive rebounding rate. McNeese gets after it on defense -- top-15 in steals rate, top-20 in turnover rate and top-40 in opponent effective field-goal percentage. But while the Cowboys go eight deep, they have just one player taller than 6-6 and struggle at the foul line (70.7%, 235th). McNeese doesn't have a Quad 1 win (though it hung tough at Alabama and at Mississippi State) and just one Quad 2 win. A first-round victory in the 12-5 matchup in the Midwest would be its best of the season. |
| Memphis | Coach Penny Hardaway struck gold in the transfer portal this season, picking up one of the country's best scorers in PJ Haggerty (21.8 ppg), an elite big man in 6-9 Dain Dainja (14.3 ppg, 7.2 rpg), a double-digit scorer in Colby Rogers (10.8 ppg) and an experienced point guard in Tyrese Hunter (13.7 ppg, 3.6 apg), though the latter missed the AAC tournament final with a foot injury. The result is an offense that plays fast (28th in tempo, per KenPom) and can close gaps quickly with a top-20 three-point percentage. On the other hand, the Tigers are prone to turnovers (308th) and struggle from the foul line (244th), which is partly why their offense ranks just 71st in KenPom's efficiency metric. But Memphis has shown it can hang with anyone, collecting impressive wins over Michigan State, UConn, Clemson, Ole Miss and Missouri, in addition to winning the AAC regular-season and tournament titles. Predictive metrics don't love Memphis, but the results say Hardaway has the firepower to win a few. |
| Michigan | Coach Dusty May, who guided FAU to the Final Four just two seasons ago, turned around Michigan in his first season, taking a team that finished 8-24 last season to the Big Ten tournament title as the three seed. May brought 7-1 senior Vladislav Goldin (16.7 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.4 bpg) with him from FAU and also added 7-0 transfer Danny Wolf (13.1 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 1.3 bpg), giving Michigan a dominant interior that ranks 11th nationally in opponent two-point shooting and 32nd in blocks rate. While the defense is 14th in efficiency (per KenPom), the top-50 offense is stifled a bit by turnovers - 328th in the nation. Transfer point guard Tre Donaldson (11.6 ppg, 4.2 apg) commits 2.2 turnovers per game but shoots 38.1 percent from distance, while senior guard Nimari Burnett (9.7 ppg) hits 40.6 percent. Michigan is 12-7 in Quad 1, but struggled in non-conference with losses three losses to non-tournament teams. |
| Michigan State | Michigan State enters the NCAA Tournament almost a bit under the radar. The Big Ten regular-season champs might lack star power -- only two players average double figures -- but the rotation goes 10 deep, keeping legs fresh to play lockdown defense. The Spartans rank fifth in defensive efficiency (per KenPom), partly thanks to suffocating perimeter defense that is second nationally in opponent three-point percentage (27.8). The offense is led by senior guard Jaden Akins (12.7 ppg, 3.6 apg) and freshman guard Jase Richardson (12.0 ppg, 3.2 rpg), the son of former NBA star Jason Richardson. Jase, who shoots 41.2 percent from distance, has averaged 17.3 points and 4.8 rebounds since entering the starting lineup in mid-February. MSU does not shoot the three well (329th nationally), but it gets second-chance points with the 21st-ranked offensive rebounding rate. The Spartans have 13 Quad 1 wins (third nationally behind Auburn and Houston), and if any Big Ten team has a chance to cut down the nets, it's Tom Izzo's squad. |
| Mississippi | After a 10-8 record in a tough SEC and signature non-conference wins over BYU and Louisville, Ole Miss is in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019 and in search of its first win since 2015. The Rebels are balanced on both ends, ranking top 31 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (per KenPom). Leading scorer Sean Pedulla (14.9 ppg, 3.5 apg) and senior Jaylen Murray (10.6 ppg, 3.5 apg) split point-guard duty for an offense that has the third-lowest turnover rate in the nation. Four others average double figures, including 6-9 Malik Dia (10.6 ppg, 5.7 rpg) and 6-8 sixth-man Jaemyn Brakefield (10.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg). Other than those two, though, no rotation player is taller than 6-foot-6, which is partly why the Rebels rank 313th and 233rd, respectively, in offensive and defensive rebounding rates. With eight Quad 1 wins, a 5-1 Quad 2 record and no bad losses, Ole Miss will be a barometer on the SEC's strength this year. |
| Mississippi State | Mississippi State went 8-10 in SEC play, but seven Quad 1 wins and no bad losses were more than enough to punch its NCAA Tournament ticket for the third consecutive year. Coach Chris Jans has a top-25 offense (per KenPom), led by sophomore point guard Josh Hubbard (18.7 ppg, 3.2 apg) and 6-10 junior KeShawn Murphy (11.8 ppg, 7.5 rpg). But the Bulldogs struggle from the perimeter, ranking 298th nationally in three-point shooting, as Hubbard leads the team with a mere 34.3 percent from distance while attempting 303 treys, more than any player in the tournament. MSU's defense ranks 47th in efficiency (per KenPom), which is the worst in Jans' three-year tenure, allowing opponents to shoot a 51.7 percent effective field goal rate -- 240th in the nation. The Bulldogs also skidded down the stretch, losing five of their last seven, with both wins against SEC bottom-feeder LSU. |
| Missouri | After going winless in the SEC a season ago, coach Dennis Gates orchestrated a remarkable turnaround. Missouri went through a gauntlet of conference foes and emerged 10-8 and middle of the pack. That alone might not scream a top-15 overall team on KenPom, but taking into account signature wins against Alabama, Florida and Kansas, the picture becomes clearer. Gates uses a deep rotation led by Duke transfer Mark Mitchell (14.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg), but the X-factor is sixth-man Caleb Grill (13.7 ppg), who shoots 40.5 percent from three-point range and isn't afraid to shoot from any part of the court. Senior guard Tamar Bates (13.4 ppg) adds 40.0 percent shooting from distance, as the Tigers rank 18th nationally in effective field-goal percentage. It adds up to the No. 5 offense in KenPom's efficiency metric. Defense lags behind and rebounding can be a struggle at times, but Missouri can win a shootout against anyone. |
| Montana | Montana won a share of the Big Sky regular season before taking the conference tournament to earn its sixth trip to the NCAA Tournament since 2010. The Grizzlies boast a top-100 offense (per KenPom) thanks to quality shooting, ranking 18th nationally in effective field goal percentage. Despite no rotation player taller than 6-foot-8, the Grizzlies convert 57.3 percent of two-pointers (17th), and they rank 55th in three-point percentage, led by junior guard Malik Moore (12.8 ppg), who shoots 41.1 percent from deep. Three others average double figures, including sophomore point guard Money Williams (13.3 ppg) and 6-5 senior guard Joe Pridgen (11.5 ppg, 6.9 rpg), the team's leading rebounder. Defense is a secondary (250th in efficiency on KenPom) and the Grizzlies came up short in four Quad 1 opportunities, with notable losses of 30-plus to Oregon and Tennessee. Montana's first-round opponent, Wisconsin, is at least that caliber. |
| Mount St. Mary's | A surprise run to the MAAC tournament title as the No. 6 seed has Mount St. Mary's dancing for the seventh time in program history and first since 2021. The Mountaineers have one of the worst offenses in the field, ranking 293rd in KenPom's efficiency rating. They struggle to protect the ball, posting the sixth-worst offensive turnover rate among 364 D-1 teams. When the Moutaineers are rolling, it's thanks to 6-8 junior forward Dola Adebayo (13.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg) with help from sophomore shooting guard Dallas Hobbs (12.6 ppg). The Mountaineers are also short-handed, as 6-7 forward Terrell Ard (10.9 ppg) was lost for the year in late February (Achilles) and guard Carmelo Pacheco (9.5 ppg), the only dependable long-range shooter at 46.4 percent, missed the conference tournament with a finger injury. The Mountaineers will find it tough to even survive the 16-seed play-in game. |
| New Mexico | Despite losing to Boise State in the Mountain West tournament semifinals, New Mexico is dancing for the second consecutive season. The Lobos earned non-conference wins against UCLA, USC and VCU before capturing the MWC regular-season title at 17-3. Conference Player of the Year Donovan Dent (20.6 ppg, 6.4 apg) is one of the nation's best guards nobody has heard of, while 6-10 senior Nelly Junior Joseph (14.0 ppg, 11.2 rpg) holds down the paint. Defense is a strength. New Mexico ranks top 20 in KenPom's efficiency metric, including top 35 in turnover rate and top 15 in block rate. Coach Richard Pitino's squad takes quick shots, with the fourth-fastest tempo in the nation (per KenPom). But the Lobos don't necessarily shoot that well. They rank 176th in effective field-goal percentage and are outside the top 300 in free-throw percentage, with no player converting higher than 78 percent. But the Lobos have the feel of a high-major and could pull an upset. |
| Norfolk State | After winning a share of the MEAC regular-season title and defeating co-leaders South Carolina State in the conference tournament, Norfolk State is headed to the NCAA Tournament for the third time in the last five years. The Spartans posted a Quad 2 win against High Point along the way and played a tough Tennessee team within 15 points on the road in December. Senior combo guard Brian Moore Jr. (18.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.1 apg) leads a trio of double-digit scorers for an offense that ranks 168th in KenPom's efficiency ranking. The Spartans struggle shooting from distance, ranking outside of the nation's top-300 at 31.3 percent. They're also a bottom-30 team in the country in defensive rebounding rate. That will make things difficult in a first-round matchup against No. 1 seed Florida in the West. |
| North Carolina | The Tar Heels went from being a No. 1 seed in 2024 to barely making the field of 68 in 2025 as the final at-large team selected. The Tar Heels have beat up on lower-tier teams for a respectable 36 ranking in the NET and 33 on KenPom, but UNC struggled tremendously against high-caliber competition -- 1-12 in Quad 1 games. That win came against UCLA in December, and the Tar Heels lost to Duke three times this year, most recently in the ACC tournament semifinals. UNC still has leading scorer RJ Davis (17.0 ppg, 3.7 apg, 3.5 rpg), while freshman Ian Jackson (12.4 ppg) provides a secondary threat for the nation's 22nd-ranked offense (per KenPom). The defense is 53rd, partly because it doesn't force turnovers, ranking 310th in turnover rate. The Tar Heels are lucky to be here, and their results against top teams don't bode well, even if they survive the 11-seed play-in game in the South. |
| Oklahoma | It took four years, but former Loyola-Chicago coach Porter Moser finally has Oklahoma dancing. The Sooners have seven Quad 1 wins, including signature victories against Arizona, Louisville and Michigan, despite going 6-12 in in their first season in the SEC. The one-two punch of freshman guard Jeremiah Fears (17.0 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 4.1 apg) and senior forward Jalon Moore (16.0 ppg, 5.8 rpg) gives Oklahoma's 21st-ranked offense (per KenPom) multiple options capable of taking over a game. The Sooners are 35th in three-point accuracy, with four players shooting higher than 35 percent, led by Duke Miles (9.5) at 44.0 percent, and they're top 10 at the foul line. Oklahoma need the shots to fall because it is a dreadful on the boards, outside the top 275 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates. Defense ranks 70th in efficiency, but the Sooners boast a top-25 perimeter defense. With a 7-13 record since January, though, those big non-conference wins are a distant memory. |
| Omaha | Omaha won the Summit League regular season before capturing the conference tournament to send the Mavericks to the NCAA Tournament for the first time. A rotation that runs eight deep is paced by 6-8 senior forward Marquel Sutton (19.1 ppg, 8.0 rpg), who has eight double-doubles, including an impressive 22 points and 18 rebounds in the conference tourney final. Four players shoot at least 36.5 percent from distance, led by senior point guard JJ White (13.7 ppg, 4.0 apg) and his 43.9 percent, as Omaha ranks top 50 in the nation in three-point shooting. The Mavericks are 252nd in KenPom's efficiency rating, but Sutton and a deep frontcourt give them a top-20 defensive rebounding rate. The team's best win is a Quad 2 victory against conference-foe North Dakota State, and while it lost big to Iowa State, the Mavs kept things close against Minnesota and UNLV. Still, the resume doesn't suggest first-round upset potential. |
| Oregon | Oregon lost six of seven midseason games but rallied to win eight in a row before bowing out of the Big Ten tournament in the quarterfinals. Coach Dana Altman hopes to carry that momentum into the NCAA Tournament with a resume that includes eight Quad 1 wins and a signature neutral-site victory against Alabama. The Ducks have four double-digit scorers, but the main contributors are 7-0 senior center Nate Bittle (14.1 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 2.2 bpg) and sophomore point guard Jackson Shelstad (13.2 ppg, 2.9 apg), who shoots 36.6 percent from the perimeter. Senior guard Keeshawn Barthelemy (10.1 ppg) hits a team-high 41.7 from three-point range. The Ducks rank No. 41 in offensive efficiency and boast a top 30 defensive efficiency (per KenPom, which suggests they don't do any one thing exceedingly well but don't have any glaring weaknesses either). Considering Altman has at least one victory in each of his five consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances, the Ducks shouldn't be counted out. |
| Purdue | A Big Ten preseason favorite, Purdue started 19-5 only to lose five of its last seven and finish middle of the pack. Still, the Boilermakers sport a top-10 offense (per KenPom), and All-American candidate Braden Smith (16.1 ppg, 8.7 apg, 4.6 rpg) is a big reason why, as he shoots 38.4 percent from three-point range and leads the conference in assists average. The 6-9 Trey Kaufman-Renn (20.2 ppg, 6.2 rpg) turned out to be a formidable Zach Edey replacement. Purdue gets it done from outside, with a top-10 three-point shooting percentage (38.5), led by junior guard Fletcher Loyer (13.8 ppg), who hits 46.4 percent from deep. Defense is questionable -- ranked 27th on the perimeter but 350th inside the arc, allowing opponents to shoot 56.4 percent on two-pointers. But Purdue totaled seven Quad 1 wins and no bad losses, and with a coach in Matt Painter who has national championship experience, a deep run can't be ruled out. |
| Robert Morris | The Horizon League regular-season and conference champ, Robert Morris enters the NCAA Tournament on a 10-game winning streak. Four players score in double figures, led by senior guard Kam Woods (15.1 ppg, 5.1 apg, 4.6 rpg), a North Carolina State transfer. Anchoring the frontcourt is 6-9 sophomore forward Alvaro Folgueiras (14.1 ppg, 9.1 rpg), who has 13 double-doubles and helps the Colonials rank top 35 nationally in offensive rebounding rate. Folgueiras can also step outside, shooting the three at an impressive 42.3 percent. Four players have cashed at least 40 three-pointers for a team that shoots 34.9 percent from distance. The Colonials' resume is lacking, though. Robert Morris lost its only Quad 1 matchup by 28 points to West Virginia, and while it has a Quad 2 win against Cornell, it also has three Quad 4 losses. That's partly why the Colonials landed in the 15 seed in the East. |
| San Diego State | San Diego State finished fourth in the Mountain West, lost its conference tournament opener and has a 52 NET rating but is nevertheless headed to its fifth consecutive NCAA Tournament under coach Brian Dutcher. Defense continues to be Dutcher's forte, as the Aztecs are 13th in KenPom's efficiency rating, their sixth consecutive season in the top 25. SDSU is seventh in opponent effective field-goal percentage and is the nation's top shot-blocking team. 7-0 freshman Magoon Gwath (8.5 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 2.6 bpg), the MWC Defensive Player of the Year, missed the last five games with a knee injury, but will play in the tournament. The offense runs a nine-man rotation led by guards Nick Boyd (13.4 ppg, 4.0 apg) and Miles Byrd (12.6 ppg, 4.5 rpg) but ranks 111th in efficiency. SDSU beat Houston and Creighton, and defense should keep it competitive, but lack of offense could be a problem if they get by North Carolina in the East Region 11-seed play-in game. |
| SIU-Edwardsville | After finishing second in the OVC, the Cougars ran the table in the conference tournament, beating regular-season champion Southeast Missouri State to earn the first NCAA Tournament bid in program history. SIU Edwardsville is experienced with all but one rotation player an upperclassman and has an elite asset in senior point guard Ray'Sean Taylor (19.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.8 apg), who is one of the nation's most prolific three-point shooters (263 attempts, 34.6%). They're also sound defensively with a deep frontcourt that limits opponents to 46.3 percent shooting inside the arc (23rd nationally). But SIUE went 0-2 in Quads 1 and 2, losing by an average of 25.5 points to Indiana and Illinois, and its best victory is a road win against Indiana State in November. That doesn't bode well as the No. 16 seed in the Midwest against No. 1 Houston. |
| St. Francis (Pa.) | Despite a fourth-place finish in the NEC regular season and a 16-17 overall record, Saint Francis is in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1991 thanks to an improbable run in the conference tournament. By the metrics, the Red Flash are the lowest-ranked team in the field -- 311th on KenPom and 297th in the NET -- and have a whopping nine Quad 4 losses. Junior point guard Riley Parker (13.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 3.4 rpg) leads a nine-man rotation that features four double-digit scorers, three of whom shoot at least 37.9 percent from distance, including Parker at 39.9 percent. The Red Flash, though, struggle with turnovers (321st) and offensive rebounding (314th). Defense is a little better -- 293rd in efficiency (per KenPom). What's more, inexperience -- 349th in KenPom's D-1 experience metric -- could hurt the Red Flash in the South Region 16-seed play-in game. |
| St. John's | In just his second season, legendary coach Rick Pitino led St. John's to the Big East regular-season and tournament titles and its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2019. The 6-7 RJ Luis Jr. (18.4 ppg, 7.2 rpg) took a massive leap in his second year at St. John's, posting 10 double-doubles, while star guard Kadary Richmond (12.7 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 5.4 apg) and 6-9 Zuby Ejiofor (14.6 ppg, 8.0 rpg) transferred in to become key contributors. St. John's plays fast, but lockdown defense is its calling card. The Red Storm is No. 1 nationally in defensive efficiency (per KenPom), ranking top 20 in turnover rate and opponent effective field-goal percentage, and 12th in opponent two-point shooting. Resume is the biggest issue. A weak Big East resulted in just three Quad 1 wins (though St. John's is undefeated in the other three quadrants) and losses to Baylor and Georgia raise questions about how it might fare against power-conference foes. |
| St. Mary's (CAL) | Saint Mary's lost the WCC tournament final to Gonzaga but had already ensured itself an NCAA Tournament bid with four Quad 1 wins, including two against the Zags, a 6-2 Quad 2 record and no bad losses. While senior point guard Augustas Marciulionis (14.3 ppg, 6.1 apg) leads the attack, the team's strength lies down low in 6-8 sophomore Paulius Murauskas (12.5 ppg, 8.0 rpg) and 6-10 senior Mitchell Saxen (10.6 ppg, 7.9 rpg). The pair combined for 22 double-doubles, helping the Gaels rank second nationally in offensive rebounding rate, top 25 in block rate and top 15 in opponent two-point shooting. Saint Mary's slows the pace (sixth slowest, per KenPom), which keeps games close and helps the defense rank ninth in KenPom's efficiency metric. This could be the Gaels' best shot at advancing to the second weekend since they did so in 2010. |
| Tennessee | Tennessee enters the NCAA Tournament thriving off coach Rick Barnes' calling card -- lockdown defense that ranks third nationally in KenPom's efficiency metric. The Volunteers are suffocating on the perimeter, holding opponents to the lowest three-point percentage in the nation (27.6) to rank No. 1 in opponent effective field-goal shooting. Offense can be a struggle, especially if leading scorer Chaz Lanier (17.6 ppg) doesn't produce, as happened in the SEC tournament final. At 40.0 percent, Lanier is the only Vol with at least 50 three-point attempts who shoots higher than 33 percent from distance. The 6-10 Igor Milicic Jr. (10.0 ppg, 6.9 rpg) helps supply second-chance opportunities as Tennessee ranks 19th in offensive rebounding rate, but senior point guard Zakai Zeigler (13.7 ppg, 7.3 apg), who is known for defense, might need to help more on offense for an extended run. The Vols are 11-7 in Quad 1 with no bad losses, making a trip to at least the second weekend likely. |
| Texas | Texas boosted its resume with wins over fellow tournament teams Vanderbilt and Texas A&M in the SEC tournament to bring its Quad 1 win to seven, and the Longhorns will just sneak into the Big Dance despite a 6-12 record in conference play. Five-star freshman Tre Johnson (19.8 ppg) leads a group of four double-digit scorers for a top-40 offense (per KenPom) that protects the basketball with a top-20 offensive turnover rate. Johnson is the only freshman in the rotation, with coach Rodney Terry's squad ranking No. 21 in the country in D-1 experience. The unit depended heavily on the transfer portal this offseason, with starters Arthur Kaluma (12.4 ppg, 7.6 rpg), Jordan Pope (11.2 ppg) and Tramon Mark (10.4 ppg) coming in from Kansas State, Oregon State and Houston, respectively. Playing in a tough SEC and no bad losses, Texas has the firepower to become a real threat if it makes it past the 11-seed play-in game in the Midwest. |
| Texas A&M | Texas A&M beat up on the SEC's bottom tier and struggled against the elites -- until a late-season win against Auburn. Mixed with non-conference wins against NCAA Tournament teams such as Creighton, Texas Tech and Purdue, the Aggies enter the Big Dance a No. 4 seed, despite a second-round loss in the conference tournament. Texas A&M wins with defense, ranking eighth nationally in KenPom's efficiency metric and top 50 in opponent two-point shooting. It also thrives on the glass as the nation's No. 1-ranked offensive rebounding team. Second-chance opportunities are important because Texas A&M shoots so poorly. The Aggies rank 317th in effective field-goal percentage and three-point shooting. Senior guards Wade Taylor IV (15.7 ppg, 4.3 apg) and Zhuric Phelps (14.1 ppg, 5.0 rpg) lead the offense, but both shoot lower than 40 percent from the field. Defense could carry Texas A&M to the second weekend, but Taylor will have to put the offense on his back for an extended run. |
| Texas Tech | Texas Tech quietly went an impressive 15-5 to finish second in the Big 12, and the Red Raiders are a darling of the efficiency metrics, ranking seventh in both the KenPom and NET ratings. The difference-maker is 6-9 sophomore center and New Mexico transfer JT Toppin (18.1 ppg, 9.2 rpg), who averaged 23.4 points and 10.5 rebounds in the last 11 games. Texas Tech also thrives at the perimeter with top-20 three-point shooting, ranking sixth in offensive efficiency (per KenPom). Three rotation players shoot at least 40 percent from distance, led by senior guard Chance McMillian (14.2 ppg), who hits 43.4 percent. Defensively, Tech is 37th in efficiency. The Red Raiders have questionable losses to UCF (at home) and TCU (on the road), but they also haven't lost consecutive games this season. The second weekend is a realistic goal for second-year coach Grant McCasland. |
| Troy | Four teams finished 13-5 in the Atlantic Sun regular season, but No. 3 seed Troy emerged with the automatic bid, resulting in its first NCAA Tournament trip since 2017. The defensive-minded Trojans are 71st nationally in defensive efficiency (per KenPom), thanks to ranking top 10 in steals rate and top 25 in opponent two-point percentage. Offense is harder to come by -- Troy is 332nd in offensive turnover rate and 339th in perimeter shooting -- but the Trojans give themselves second-chance opportunities with the nation's fifth-highest offensive rebounding rate despite not having a player taller than 6-foot-9. Senior point guard Tayton Conerway (14.3 ppg, 4.8 apg, 4.6 rpg) and sophomore forward Myles Rigsby (12.0 ppg) are the only double-digit scorers in a rotation that can run 11 deep. Troy's two Quad 2 wins both came against Arkansas State, and all three Quad 1 losses were by at least 15 points, making a first-round upset seem like a stretch for the Trojans. |
| UC San Diego | UC San Diego is not the typical mid-major, sporting a 30-4 record and receiving votes in the national rankings during the season. In their first year eligible, the Tritons enter the Big Dance with the nation's longest active winning streak (15 games) as Big West regular-season and tournament champs. Senior guard Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones (19.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 3.7 apg) scored in double figures in all but two games, while senior Tyler McGhie (16.4 ppg) is the main sharpshooter, knocking down 114 three-pointers at 38.6 percent. The Tritons live and die by the three, as 49.6 percent of their field-goal attempts are from distance -- eighth most in the nation. Senior point guard Hayden Gray (11.2 ppg, 3.3 apg) protects the ball tremendously well, helping UCSD to the nation's seventh-lowest offensive turnover rate. Defense is solid as well, ranking 30th in efficiency (per KenPom) with the country's second-highest defensive turnover rate. The Tritons' first-round opponent should be on upset alert. |
| UCLA | UCLA started the year 11-2 with wins against Oregon, Arizona and Gonzaga but went 11-8 the rest of the way, including a one-and-done appearance in the Big Ten tournament. The Bruins still totaled an impressive nine Quad 1 wins. Coach Mick Cronin runs a rotation that goes 8-10 deep, with no one playing more than 29 minutes per game. Mixed with a slow pace (301st in tempo), the result is just two players averaging more than 10 points: 6-9 junior Tyler Bilodeau (13.6 ppg, 4.5 rpg) and 6-8 sophomore Eric Dailey Jr. (11.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg), who both shoot at least 40 percent from three-point range for the 36th-ranked offense in the nation (per KenPom). With a stream of fresh bodies, UCLA's defense ranks 18th in efficiency, feeding off the nation's seventh-highest turnover rate. It's a style that's tough to game plan for and one that's well suited for tournament play. |
| UNC-Wilmington | UNC Wilmington finished two games behind Towson in the CAA regular season but captured the conference tournament to earn its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2017. The Seahawks run an all-upperclassmen eight-man rotation, led by senior point guard Donovan Newby (14.6 ppg, 3.5 apg), who shoots 35.7 percent from three-point range (210 attempts). In the frontcourt, the junior combo of 6-9 Khamari McGriff (11.6 ppg, 4.0 rpg) and 7-0 Harlan Obioha (9.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg) propel the Seahawks to a top-30 offensive rebounding rate, providing second-chance looks for an offense that ranks 84th in efficiency (per KenPom). The resume lacks, however, with no wins in Quads 1 or 2 and a trio of Quad 4 losses. UNCW's best opponent was Kansas, which was an 18-point loss, and its first-round opponent is an even higher-caliber team. |
| Utah State | Utah State snapped a 23-year winless drought last season in the NCAA Tournament and is back looking for more after finishing third in an above-average Mountain West. The Aggies started 10-0 and picked up their only two Quad 1 wins shortly thereafter, both on the road at Saint Mary's and San Diego State. With an 8-3 Quad 2 record and no bad losses, the resume is sufficient. Guards Ian Martinez (16.8 ppg) and Mason Falslev (14.9 ppg, 6.2 rpg) lead an offense that ranks 21st nationally in effective FG percentage. Those two and Dexter Akanno (8.3 ppg) have hit 50-plus three-pointers, each shooting at least 37.5 percent, with Akanno shooting a conference-high 43.9 percent. The Aggies score well inside the perimeter too, ranking 12th in two-point FG percentage, boosting the offense to 17th in KenPom's efficiency rating. Utah State does not defend as well, however (232nd in effective opponent FG%), and no player taller than 6-foot-5 plays more than 17 minutes. |
| Vanderbilt | Under first-year coach Mark Byington, Vanderbilt is dancing for the first time since 2017. The Commodores are ranked 47 in the Net and 50 on KenPom, but five Quad 1 wins and no bad losses proved more than enough. Vanderbilt has a top-30 offense (per KenPom), with fifth-year senior point guard AJ Hoggard (9.8 ppg, 4.6 apg) protecting the ball to help the Commodores rank 28th nationally in turnover rate. While three-point shooting ranks outside the top 200, junior guards Jason Edwards (17.0 ppg) and Tyler Nickel (10.5 ppg) shoot 36.0 and 40.6 percent, respectively. The Commodores lack height, with 6-8 Jaylen Carey (8.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg) the only rotation player taller than 6-7, and defense falls far behind (83rd), with perimeter defense especially poor, ranking 337th. Vanderbilt, which hasn't won since March 1, is looking to snap a three-game losing streak. |
| VCU | After winning A-10 regular-season and tournament titles, VCU is back in the Big Dance and searching for its first victory since 2016. The Rams get most of their scoring from fifth-year seniors Max Shulga (15.1 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 4.0 apg) and Joe Bamisile (15.1 ppg, 5.1 rpg), but Clemson transfer Jack Clark (9.6 ppg, 6.9 rpg) has been another difference-maker this year. The 6-10 center leads a frontcourt that limits opponents to 44.1 percent shooting inside the arc, good for fifth in the country. VCU also has a top-10 block rate and top-12 offensive rebounding rate. Defense ranks 22nd in KenPom's efficiency metric, forcing turnovers at the 26th-highest rate in the country. The Rams have Quad 1 wins against Colorado State and Dayton, five Quad 2 wins and only one bad loss, resulting in a solid NET ranking of 31. VCU's resume and high-major talent should put its first-round opponent on upset alert. |
| Wisconsin | Little was expected of Wisconsin this season, but coach Greg Gard guided the Badgers to eight Quad 1 wins, including a non-conference victory against Arizona and a trip to the Big Ten tournament final as the fifth seed. Transfer John Tonje (19.2 ppg, 5.3 rpg) has made all the difference, shooting 38.8 percent from the perimeter as the go-to option when the clock ticks down. Breakout sophomore John Blackwell (15.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg) is an excellent complement, often running point. The 7-0 Steven Crowl (9.6 ppg, 5.4 rpg) and 6-11 Nolan Winter (9.5 ppg, 5.9 rpg) anchor the interior. This is the best Badgers offense since the Frank Kaminsky days, ranking 13th in KenPom's efficiency metric, as they rarely turn the ball over and are the nation's top foul-shooting team at 82.8 percent. And with senior guard Max Klesmit (9.4 ppg, 2.7 apg) healthy again after a late-season injury, Wisconsin is a threat to get to the second weekend and beyond. |
| Wofford | Wofford is a Cinderella story before the NCAA Tournament even tips off, as the Terriers finished sixth in the SoCon regular season but ran the table in the conference tournament to secure the automatic bid for the first time since 2019. Second-year coach Dwight Perry has a dynamic offense that's led in scoring by senior point guard Corey Tripp (14.3 ppg, 3.2 apg), who shoots 35.5 percent from long range. The best all-around player is likely 6-9 senior center Kyler Filewich (11.9 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 3.1 apg). His presence down low helps the Terriers rank top-35 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates. The Terriers have a pair of Quad 2 wins over Saint Louis and Furman, both on the road, but also have a whopping nine Quad 3 losses. In November, they were blown out by Duke by 51 points. That's the caliber of opponent the Terriers face in the first round as the No. 15 seed in the Midwest. |
| Xavier | It was a down year for a top-heavy Big East, but Xavier still snuck into the NCAA Tournament as the league's fifth team. Coach Sean Miller's Musketeers likely saved their tournament hopes with a seven-game winning streak to close the regular season, though they were bounced immediately by Marquette in the conference tournament quarterfinals despite a 38-point effort from junior guard Ryan Conwell (16.8 ppg). The offense lives by the three-pointer, shooting 38.8 percent (6th), led by Conwell, who has drained a team-high 97 treys at 41.8 percent. Big man and leading scorer Zach Freemantle (17.3 ppg, 7.1 rpg) can even step outside on occasion, and the team's 56th-most efficient offense (per KenPom) sports a top-10 free-throw percentage. No bad losses helps Xavier's resume, but with just one Quad 1 victory, the Musketeers could struggle against the country's top teams, especially those that lock down the perimeter, if they survive the 11-seed play-in game in the Midwest. |
| Yale | Yale is headed to the NCAA Tournament for the second consecutive season, with three starters from last year's team that knocked out Auburn in the opening round. While 7-0 center Danny Wolf departed for Michigan, senior guard John Poulakidas (19.2 ppg) returned to shoot 40.9 percent from three-point range. Nick Townsend (15.4 ppg, 7.2 rpg) also had a breakout season, more than doubling his scoring average. The Bulldogs shoot 37.7 percent on three-pointers (22nd nationally) for an offense that ranks 61st in KenPom's efficiency rating. Yale is only 105th in defensive efficiency, but it's 28th in the nation in opponent two-point shooting (46.5%). The Bulldogs played Purdue within eight points on the road in their only Quad 1 game and also have a Quad 2 victory against tournament-bound Akron. While they lost two Quad 4 matchups, they're playing their best basketball entering the dance, winning 16 of 17 en route to the Ivy League regular-season and tournament titles. |
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