The NCAA tournament has always been driven by a general public that is enamored by the idea of a good Cinderella story. Each year, we as Americans consider it our civic duty to fill out brackets and gather in arenas and sports bars around the country, either cheering on that unheralded lower-seeded team that is unexpectedly taking down one of the big boys or sitting anxiously/quietly by as our alma mater attempts to avoid a similar fate.
March Madness is defined by these games, as we hang with buddies and complete strangers both, ready to share high-fives and chest-bumps over that improbable "one shining moment" that revisionist history would indicate we knew would happen all along. From eighth-seeded Villanova's impossible championship run in 1985 to 11th-seeded George Mason's march as a mid-major to the Final Four in 2006, anticipating, predicting and either sitting in stunned silence or leaping in joyful exuberance at those moments has become a National Pastime.
Since the expansion of the field to 64 teams in 1985, 60.2 percent of the 156 teams to make the Final Four have come from the top two lines, with 30 of 39 champions (25 top seeds) coming from that group. If we expand that to include the top four seeds, 80.8 percent of all Final Four participants have come from within the top-16 teams of the tournament field. That leaves just under 20-percent of teams coming from beyond the top-four seeds, equating to just under one per season.
No seed lower than 11 has ever made a Final Four, while no seed lower than eight has made a National Championship (with those '85 Villanova Wildcats being the lowest seed to ever cut down the nets). In fact, we've seen just as many eight and 11-seeds (six apiece) as five and six seeds (also 12 total) navigate their way to the Final Four, indicating that a dark horse can come from nearly anywhere.
With this season's superiority at the top of the SEC, along with Duke and Houston dominating their way through their own respective conference regular seasons, the 2025 tournament field has the appearance of one that will be top-heavy. However, based on the evidence referenced above, there's a strong likelihood that one of these bracket busters will sneak their way into a trip to San Antonio for the Final Four.
For our first topic in a series of top-10 rankings columns before the NCAA Tournament, we'll look into the dark horse teams most likely to catch both professional and amateur bracketologists sleeping. Using the Final Four odds from FanDuel Sportsbook and projected seeding from RotoWire's bracketology page, I'm ranking the teams with odds of +1000 or greater that, if the chips fall a certain way, could find themselves as that team no one saw coming.
The Longest Shot
10. Arkansas Razorbacks (+9500)
Projected seed: 11
Key players: Adou Thiero (15.6 pts, 6.0 reb, 1.7 stl); Johnell Davis (10.6 pts, 3.5 reb, 1.4 stl); D.J. Wagner (10.6 pts, 3.4 ast); Zvonimir Ivisic (9.8 pts, 4.5 reb, 2.1 blk)
I'm starting this list with a team that may not even make the tournament and who recently lost its most dynamic player when Boogie Fland went down for the season with a thumb injury in early-February. However, as is noted in the intro, a remarkable six 11-seeds have reached the Final Four since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, including three over the last seven seasons.
There is also an interesting dynamic to this Razorbacks team that could make them dangerous if they do end up sneaking their way into the tournament. That dynamic is coach John Calipari, whose track record is unquestioned and who is just crazy enough to make this team believe that they can do some damage if they receive the invite.
A large part of this long-shot play is reliant upon the health of Adou Thiero, who is currently out indefinitely with an undisclosed injury. Already without Fland, the Razorbacks' faint hopes will likely be flushed out completely if Thiero can't compete.
But if he can go, he'll team with point guard D.J. Wagner, a surging Zvonimir Ivisic and a Final Four veteran in Johnell Davis who played an important role throughout the 2023 tournament as a starter for FAU during its Cinderella run. Arkansas has enough talent and has been battle-tested enough in a rugged SEC that they are the most likely team to emulate what NC State did last season.
The Dangerous Underachievers
9. Connecticut Huskies (+2100)
Projected seed: 8
Key players: Liam McNeeley (15.3 pts, 6.3 reb); Solo Ball (14.9 pts); Alex Karaban (14.3 pts, 5.0 reb); Hassan Diarra (6.0 ast); Tarris Reed Jr (10.2 pts, 7.4 reb, 1.8 blk)
There's a fine line between being battle-tested and just being bludgeoned. Each of the teams listed within this section began the season ranked inside the top-10 of the major preseason polls, loaded with Quad 1 opportunities, while three of the four have a coach with at least one national championship.
So what are the differentiators? For UConn, the answer is pretty obvious—"Never underestimate the heart of a champion." It's been three decades since Rudy Tomjanovich uttered those famous words following the Houston Rockets' second-consecutive NBA championship, and the same can certainly be said for UConn, a team vying for its third-straight crown.
The Huskies have certainly not performed as well this season as over the previous two campaigns, playing each game with a massive target on their back brought on by recent success, combined with arguably the most unlikeable coach in America in Dan Hurley. However, outside of a rough 0-3 stretch during the early-season Maui Invitational, UConn has managed 20 wins, stands at 12-6 in conference and is 4-5 in Quad 1 opportunities, including road victories over Texas, Marquette and Creighton along with a neutral-site win over Gonzaga.
Star freshman wing Liam McNeeley has returned to health after missing nine games during the early part of conference play with an ankle injury. Alex Karaban, Solo Ball and Hassan Diarra are each veterans with championship pedigree, and Michigan transfer Tarris Reed Jr has come off the bench and is beginning to dominate underneath. If they earn an 8-seed as is currently projected, they are the team no 1-seed will want to see across from them in second round and are more than capable of sweeping their way through any region.
8. Baylor Bears (+4400)
Projected seed: 10
Key players: Norchad Omier (15.6 ppg, 10.4 rpg); VJ Edgecombe (14.6 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 3.3 apg, 2.1 spg); Rob Wright (12.0 ppg, 4.4 apg)
Call me crazy, but I still believe in the Bears. Baylor has managed to turn a preseason top-10 ranking into a season worthy of being squarely on the bubble as we enter the final week of the regular season.
In their favor, the Bears have played 15 Quad 1 games, so they're definitely battle-tested, though a 5-10 record in those games and an 8-12 record if we include Quad 2 games doesn't exactly portend to postseason success. However, this list is meant for dark horses, and Baylor does have some factors working in their favor.
First of all, the Bears are finally getting healthy at the right time. Starting small forward Langston Love has missed two significant chunks of the season and is just now rounding back into form. Point guard Jeremy Roach, a senior transfer from Duke, has also missed six games this season, and while standout freshman VJ Edgecombe has only missed two games, those games were Quad 1 losses at UConn and at Texas Tech.
Edgecombe and Norchad Omier, a transfer from Miami who has averaged a double-double all five seasons he's been in college, are both capable of taking over a game, while Love shot greater than 48 percent from three last season and is capable of catching fire at any moment. Add in a national championship-winning coach in Scott Drew, and Baylor is a long shot capable of making noise in the big dance.
Something's missing: Kansas Jayhawks and Gonzaga Bulldogs
Simply put, nether of these teams have looked like the teams we're accustomed to seeing. Early in the season, the Jayhawks looked like they were ready for a bounce-back season as one of only three teams to put a blemish on Duke's record. However, they've since fizzled in conference play, losing nine of 19 games to fall completely out of the polls.
In watching their games, it simply feels like Hunter Dickinson and crew are mostly going through the motions for lengthy stretches. I'm not sure if it's a Bill Self issue or not, but something seems off, and the talent level is no different than what we've come to expect. They are still being projected to be in the 5-7 seed range but are much closer to being a first-round upset victim than suddenly putting everything together to make a surprising run.
As for Gonzaga, the team's best wins were an opening-night beat down of a Baylor squad that was playing with a lot of new faces and a win at San Diego State. They've otherwise been outshined in their major opportunities, including two losses to rival Saint Mary's that allowed the Gaels to win their second-consecutive regular season crown by three full games over the Zags. Gonzaga has famously excelled as a lower seed in the past, but this year's team does not appear to be a legitimate threat.
Getting ready for March Madness? For the latest in the projected field of 68 for 2025 NCAA Tournament, head to the RotoWire Bracketology page.
The Mid-Majors
7. #21 Saint Mary's Gaels (+2100)
Projected seed: 6
Key players: Augustas Marciulionis (14.4 pts, 6.1 ast, 1.4 stl); Paulius Murauskas (12.8 pts, 8.1 reb); Mitchell Saxen (10.4 pts, 8.0 reb, 1.3 stl, 1.2 blk)
The Gaels have become a March mainstay, having made the Big Dance as a five-seed during each of the past three seasons. They have not been able to make much of a dent, however, having not made it past the tournament's first weekend since making their only modern Sweet Sixteen appearance in 2010.
This year's crew is once again stout defensively, a staple of coach Randy Bennett, who is in his 24th season with Saint Mary's and will be leading the team into the tournament for the 10th time during his tenure. The Gaels are fifth in the country having allowed just 60.8 points per contest, including their two wins over Gonzaga in which they held the second-best scoring team in the nation to over 25 points below their season average.
Guard Augustas Marciulionis is capable of taking over a game offensively, both with his scoring and his ball distribution. They're also strong underneath with Luke Barrett, Paulius Murauskas and Mitchell Saxen combining for 32.9 points and 20.7 rebounds per contest.
The Gaels' two biggest wins have come against Gonzaga, a team they'll likely have a third shot against in the WCC tournament final. I don't believe their past performance is indicative of this years team, as they'll be hungry to get Randy Bennett to the Sweet Sixteen and possibly beyond for the first time in his career.
6. #16 Memphis Tigers (+2200)
Projected seed: 7
Key players: PJ Haggerty (21.4 pts, 5.4 reb, 3.8 ast, 1.9 stl); Tyrese Hunter (14.2 pts, 3.9 reb, 3.4 ast, 1.4 stl); Dain Dainja (13.3 pts, 7.0 reb)
The other mid-major to make the list is Memphis, and unlike Saint Mary's, the Tigers have a strong historical track record in the tournament. Memphis has made three Final Four appearances in its history, losing in the championship to UCLA in 1973 and to Kansas in OT in 2008, while also making a trip in 1985 as the only non-Big East team, losing to Villanova as their penultimate victim during their famed Cinderella run.
This year's version is going to represent Penny Hardaway's third team to make the tournament since he took over in 2018 and likely earn their highest seed since his arrival. An argument against Memphis is a relatively poor NET rating of 45 despite being ranked 16th in the latest AP poll. This ranking is due in large part to a point differential of just +6.8 which ranks 81st in the country.
However, Memphis has an impressive Quad 1 record of 6-2 including wins over Missouri, UConn, Michigan State, Clemson and Ole Miss. The Tigers have great guard play, which is always a plus come March, with PJ Haggerty and Tyrese Hunter representing one of the most dynamic backcourts in the country. Add in Illinois-transfer center Dain Dainja, who has played his best basketball over the last 10 games, and Memphis has three stars capable of leading the Tigers on a deep run for the first time in 17 seasons.
The Best Bets
5. #23 Brigham Young Cougars (+2300)
Projected seed: 7
Key players: Richie Saunders (15.8 pts, 4.3 reb); Egor Demin (10.7 pts, 5.7 ast)
BYU got off to a disappointing start, losing in its only Quad 1 non-conference opportunity against Ole Miss, then dropping four of six to start Big 12 play. However the Cougars have since flipped a switch, winning 10 of their last 12 to move into a tie for fourth in the conference standings, including five wins against teams currently projected to make the 68-team field.
This BYU team is similar to last year's team in that it has an explosive offense that averages 81 points per game and a deep rotation with nine guys that play at least 17 minutes with no one averaging 30 minutes per contest.
Richie Saunders has emerged with a breakout season, and he's stepped things up in conference play, averaging nearly 18 points per contest while shooting better than 45 percent from three. Add in five-star freshman Egor Demin, a projected future NBA lottery pick, and this is a talented team that is playing its best basketball of the season.
4. #17 Michigan Wolverines (+2300)
Projected seed: 4
Key players: Vladislav Goldin (16.1 pts, 6.4 reb, 1.4 blk); Danny Wolf (12.5 pts, 9.7 reb, 3.7 ast, 1.4 blk); Tre Donaldson (11.9 pts, 3.6 reb, 3.9 ast)
Michigan was picked to finish ninth in the Big Ten preseason media poll but currently ranks second in the conference thanks to an overhauled roster put together by first-year head man Dusty May. May led FAU to a surprising Final Four berth two years ago and has Michigan in prime position to make their own run this year.
The Wolverines are an impressive 8-4 in quad 1 games, though outside of an early-season, neutral-site win over Xavier, seven of those wins have come in conference.
May brought in Vladislav Goldin, who was a key member of FAU during that Final Four run, while also adding Danny Wolf to give Michigan a couple of versatile seven-footers for teams to contend with. If the Wolverines can get solid guard play from a group led by Auburn transfer Tre Donaldson, they have the potential to be a matchup nightmare for any club they face.
3. #11 Clemson Tigers (+1400)
Projected seed: 5
Key players: Chase Hunter (16.3 pts); Ian Schieffelin (13.1 pts, 9.6 reb); Viktor Lakhin (11.5 pts, 6.1 reb, 1.7 blk); Jaeden Zackery (10.9 pts, 3.3 ast, 1.9 stl)
Clemson entered last year's postseason unranked following a first-round loss in the ACC tournament, then made a surprising run as a six seed to the Elite Eight of last year's tournament.
Despite this year's outfit being ranked within the top-15 of both polls and returning two of the heroes from last year's run -- Chase Hunter and Ian Schieffelin -- coach Brad Brownell's squad is once again currently projected to be a 6-seed. However, unlike last year's squad, the Tigers are entering March like a lion, having won 16 of 18 conference games and 12 of their last 13 heading into the final week of the regular season.
Having added veterans through the portal in point guard Jaeden Zackery (Boston College) and Viktor Lakhin (Cincinnati) to go along with Hunter and Schieffelin, who both excelled during last season's tournament run, the Tigers have displayed their upside with wins this season over Duke and Kentucky.
The Tigers will be favored in their final two regular season games, as well as during each game of the ACC Tournament leading up to an anticipated championship rematch with Duke, meaning their stock is likely to rise from this point forward.
2. #15 Missouri Tigers (+1000)
Projected seed: 5
Key players: Caleb Grill (14.3 pts, 3.6 reb, 1.8 stl); Mark Mitchell (13.9 pts, 4.7 reb); Tamar Bates (13.3 pts, 1.5 stl); Anthony Robinson (9.7 pts, 3.2 reb, 3.6 ast, 2.1 stl)
When searching for teams that are off the radar that could make a surprising run to San Antonio, finding teams that have already knocked off a big boy or two is always a good place to start.
Mizzou is firmly within the second tier of the all-powerful SEC, which alone helps to make them a dark horse contender, but its performance this year has solidified its spot on this list. The Tigers are seventh in the nation in scoring, averaging 84.7 points while also ranking in the top-20 in point differential at +12.8. They also have zero bad losses this season, sweeping their way to a 15-0 record against Quads 2-4 and holding a respectable 6-8 mark against Quad 1 competition.
Of course, their Quad 1 competition is different than many others on the list since they've had to navigate their way through arguably the deepest conference in the history of college basketball. The Tigers have knocked off Kansas (when they were ranked #1), Ole Miss and Alabama at home while pulling off road victories over Florida and Mississippi State.
All told, they have three top-5 wins along with a competitive four-point loss at Tennessee. Thanks to the depth and the talent in the SEC, it's easy to overlook a team like Missouri that doesn't have that All-American-caliber player and sits just behind the big boys at fifth in the conference standings. But they've proven they can beat anybody, including two wins over teams that will be seeded at number one or two on Selection Sunday. This is one of the few teams on the list that doesn't necessarily need a favorable draw or a few upsets to pull off the four victories it would take to get into the Final Four.
1. #13 Maryland Terrapins (+1000)
Projected seed: 4
Key players: Derik Queen (15.9 pts, 9.0 reb); Jacobi Gillespie (15.1 pts, 4.8 ast, 1.8 stl); Rodney Rice (13.7 pts); Julian Reese (13.3 pts, 9.4 reb, 1.6 blk); Selton Miguel (11.9 pts)
The Terrapins are not a deep team but feature one of the best starting units in the country, with each starter playing at least 28 minutes while averaging double figures in scoring. Specifically, the starters account for 85.1 percent of the team's average of 82.1 points per game. That fact should be more of an issue in the upcoming Big Ten tournament when they'd need to play three-consecutive games to win it, as opposed to the NCAA tourney when they'll face no more than two games per week.
The Terps shoot the ball well from deep, averaging 36.8 percent as a team, and they have two dominant big men in Julian Reese and Derik Queen combining for 29.2 points and 18.4 rebounds per game. It's a battle-tested team that is 6-6 in Quad 1 opportunities while having not lost a game this season by more than six points.
Their biggest vulnerability would come if they get into a tightly called game that lands either Reese or Queen in foul trouble and on the bench for an extended period. A run to the Big Ten championship game would likely land Maryland a more favorable seed, but even if the Terps land in the 4/5 range as anticipated, this is a talented, proven team that is capable of taking down any team in the country.
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The Wild Card
Plus-1. #22 Texas A&M (+1200)
Projected seed: 3 or 4 (falling)
Key players: Wade Taylor (15.1 pts, 4.6 ast, 1.4 stl); Zhuric Phelps (14.4 pts, 5.2 reb, 1.9 stl)
Texas A&M is included as a wild card entry simply because I'm interested in seeing if it can bounce back from some adversity.
Just two weeks ago, the Aggies were amongst the top tier of the SEC with a 20-5 record and ranked seventh in the country. This included non-conference wins over Ohio State, Creighton, Texas Tech and Purdue as well as conference wins at Oklahoma, at Ole Miss and at Missouri. However, the wheels have fallen off a bit over the past two weeks, losing four straight, including a bad home loss to Vanderbilt and more excusable performances in ranked losses at Mississippi State, at Florida and to Tennessee.
The Aggies have fallen to seventh in the conference and to 22nd in the polls, but I still think there's a chance for this team. Perhaps a run starts Tuesday night with a home victory against Auburn. That immediately get them back on track and gives them some discernible evidence that they are capable of making a run.
It's not always about getting punched in the mouth, it's often how you respond to it. The Aggies are on the deck but still have time to respond. This is a team that has never made it beyond the Sweet Sixteen in its history, but they've got a great coach in Buzz Williams, a top-end backcourt with Wade Taylor and Zhuric Phelps and are one of the best rebounding clubs in the country, ranking eighth with a +8.6 differential and first on the offensive glass at +6.0 per contest.
All told, the Aggies have the tools in place that can give them a chance to become the most storied team in program history if they're able to build some momentum from Tuesday's massive win.
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