This article is part of our Sweet 16 Preview series.
Site: San Jose
Tip-off: Thursday
There isn't anything wrong with chalk. It is useful for writing on blackboards and driveways. Those filling out brackets with a chalk-based approach might take some heat for the lack of upsets, but those picks set up excellent Sweet 16 and beyond match ups. Xavier is the only non-chalk interloper in the West Region. They used a 1-3-1 zone to befuddle Florida State and advance to meet a former Musketeer coach. The teams last met in the Sweet 16 two years ago, but only one starter (Trevon Bluiett) and three other players (J.P. Macura, Parker Jackson-Cartwright, and Dusan Ristic) are still on their teams' rosters. At the top of the bracket, we have a battle of contrasting styles.
No. 1 Gonzaga vs. 
No. 4 West Virginia
Key Matchup: Bulldog guards vs. Press Virginia. West Virginia prides itself on its hellacious full court press that causes opponents to turn the ball over repeatedly. This is a problem for most teams, but Gonzaga has a backcourt of Nigel Williams-Goss, Josh Perkins, and Silas Melson that could be able to break the press. Williams-Goss and Perkins do the majority of the ball handling and average 4.1 turnovers. If Gonzaga can break the press, they should get plenty of easy baskets from their huge frontcourt.
Gonzaga will Win IF: it can break the press. There are few games that determined in backcourt before the team with the ball even gets into its halfcourt offense. While it may be overstating
Site: San Jose
Tip-off: Thursday
There isn't anything wrong with chalk. It is useful for writing on blackboards and driveways. Those filling out brackets with a chalk-based approach might take some heat for the lack of upsets, but those picks set up excellent Sweet 16 and beyond match ups. Xavier is the only non-chalk interloper in the West Region. They used a 1-3-1 zone to befuddle Florida State and advance to meet a former Musketeer coach. The teams last met in the Sweet 16 two years ago, but only one starter (Trevon Bluiett) and three other players (J.P. Macura, Parker Jackson-Cartwright, and Dusan Ristic) are still on their teams' rosters. At the top of the bracket, we have a battle of contrasting styles.
No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 4 West Virginia
Key Matchup: Bulldog guards vs. Press Virginia. West Virginia prides itself on its hellacious full court press that causes opponents to turn the ball over repeatedly. This is a problem for most teams, but Gonzaga has a backcourt of Nigel Williams-Goss, Josh Perkins, and Silas Melson that could be able to break the press. Williams-Goss and Perkins do the majority of the ball handling and average 4.1 turnovers. If Gonzaga can break the press, they should get plenty of easy baskets from their huge frontcourt.
Gonzaga will Win IF: it can break the press. There are few games that determined in backcourt before the team with the ball even gets into its halfcourt offense. While it may be overstating things that the game will be won or lost simply if the Bulldogs can efficiently advance the ball to the halfcourt line, the play of Williams-Goss and Perkins will go a long way to do determine who wins. The Bulldog backcourt has not faced this type of press before, so their fitness levels will be tested.
West Virginia will Win IF: it can keep the ball out of paint. Gonzaga has impressive size. If the press fails, then the Mountaineer forwards will have to contain the bigger Zag frontcourt of Przemek Karnowski, Zach Collins, and Johnathan Williams. The 6-foot-9 Williams played against West Virginia as a freshman with Missouri and had two points and four rebounds in 28 minutes. Nathan Adrian, Esa Ahmad, and Elijah Macon are talented forwards, but they will get pounded by the Gonzaga frontcourt if the game slows down a bit.
Player to Watch: Zach Collins, Gonzaga. I have a feeling that Karnowski will not be much of a factor in this game. Despite his gargantuan size, he is simply too slow. Collins is not quite as big as his Polish teammate, but is fleeter afoot. In the first two games of the NCAA Tournament, the 7-0 freshman has averaged 12.0 points on 58.3 percent from the field, 5.5 rebounds, and 3.5 blocks in just 21.0 minutes. He should play more minutes than Karnowski. Keep an eye on third-string center Killian Tillie who had eight points and five rebounds in 14 minutes in the win over Northwestern.
Prediction: As the first two sections show, the key to the game will be the Mountaineers' ability to force turnovers. West Virginia is excellent at creating steals and the led the nation with 10.2 steals. Even with a few days to practice to prepare themselves, I just don't think the Bulldog guards will be able to penetrate Press Virginia. West Virginia will be able to neutralize the size difference and win the game by 8-12 points.
No. 2 Arizona vs. 
No. 11 Xavier
Key Matchup: Lauri Markkanen vs. the Musketeer Zone. Unlike a team like Syracuse, Xavier is not known for just one style of defense. They played a wonderful 1-3-1 zone against Florida State and the Seminoles were not able to hit enough 3-pointers to stay in the game. FSU did not have a player like the 7-0 Markkanen who can score inside and out. While the freshman has only attempted two 3-pointers in his last three games, he will need to step out and make a long-range bomb or two to loosen the Musketeer defense.
Arizona will Win IF: it slow down Trevon Bluiett. The All-Big East performer has upped his game in the NCAA Tournament. He has averaged 25.0 points on 51.7 percent from the field with eight 3-pointers and 12 made free throws. The Wildcats will send a variety of players at Bluiett, but his main defenders will be freshmen Rawle Alkins and Kobi Simmons. Alkins will be playing with a dislocated and fractured right index finger. If the finger hampers Alkins, Simmons could be a key figure in the game after playing a combined 20 minutes in the first two games of the Big Dance.
Xavier will Win IF: it can continue to knock down 3-point shots. Through the season, Xavier was a below-average 3-point shooting team. The team hit 34.9 percent of its 3-pointers. One might thing that losing Edmond Sumner might open up some spacing since he only hit 27.3 percent of his 3-pointers, but replacement Quentin Goodin is hitting just 26.5 percent. The Musketeers have hit 50 percent of their 3-pointers (10-of-20) in the first two rounds. That rate is unsustainable, but Xavier might need to hit 40 percent of its 3-pointers for a chance to win.
Player to Watch: Allonzo Trier, Arizona. Before Jan. 21, the Wildcats were a good team, but probably slightly below Oregon and UCLA in the Pac-12 pecking order. When Trier returned to the team against UCLA after missing 19 games while suspended, Arizona jumped up a notch. He has provided another excellent offensive option and is leading the team with 17.1 points, hitting 40.3 percent of his 3-pointers. He averaged 16.0 points in Salt Lake City, but could have a breakout game against the Musketeeers.
Prediction: After losing six straight games in Big East play, Xavier looked like they would not make the NCAA Tournament. They rallied with a pair of wins over DePaul before beating a solid Butler squad in the Big East Tournament. Still, I think they were playing a bit above their heads in wins over Maryland and Florida State. Xavier coach Chris Mack served as an assistant under Sean Miller at Xavier for five seasons before Miller headed to the desert. In other words, Mack probably won't be able to spring any surprises on his old boss. Arizona has talent advantages at nearly every position and will use them to win comfortably.
