CFB Picks Week 1: Arizona vs Kansas State
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This Week 3 game serves as a fine test case of how much this season means compared to last season at this early point. It's also a conference game, though it will actually not count as such and will instead qualify as a nonconference opponent. The Arizona Wildcats are hosting the Kansas State Wildcats. That one Simpsons joke was really onto something. Last season, the perception of how this game would go would have been clear. In fact, they did play, and Kansas State won 31-7. No surprise in hindsight, but what about here in 2025?
Arizona vs Kansas State Betting Odds
Spread: Kansas State -1 (Caesars Sportsbook); Arizona +1.5 (Bet MGM)
Total: Over 54 (Caesars Sportsbook); Under 54.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Kansas State -110 (Caesars Sportsbook), Arizona Even (ESPN Bet)
Kansas State, which won this matchup with ease last season, is the favorite. However, it is barely the favorite. That spread, found across the sportsbook board at this juncture, is within toss-up territory. Given how this season has gone, particularly for Kansas State, that is not surprising.
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Arizona vs Kansas State Betting Picks
Last season, Kansas State went 8-4, won a bowl, and came into this season considered in the mix for the Big 12. To be fair, more than 12 teams were considered to be in that mix in 2025. Arizona, in its first year under Brent Brennan, went 4-8. Making a bowl in 2025 felt possible, but did not feel like a given. Not even with Brennan's impressive ability to hold onto Noah Fifita as his quarterback.
Arizona has yet to feel a challenge this season. It hosted Hawaii and won 40-6, and then it beat Weber State 48-3. Not the toughest competition, but when you face that kind of competition, winning with gusto is about as positive a thing as you can do. Kansas State has kept things interesting, but also instilled quite a bit of worry. It lost 24-21 to Iowa State, but the Cyclones seem to be quite good, and it was in Dublin. Then, K-State beat North Dakota 38-35. Sure, it barely beat an FCS team, but a win is a win. Then, it lost to Army 24-21, who had previously lost to Tarleton State. Okay, but, um, already at this point, the results are wholly, entirely concerning for Manhattan, Kansas' version of the Wildcats.
In fact, Arizona has now jumped Kansas State in SP+, 41st to Kansas State's 43rd. That definitely speaks to the toss-up nature of this one. Do you look at last season and say Kansas State was way better than Arizona, and even if this is a new season, not that much has changed? Or do you look at this year's results and do the intuitively obvious thing of taking the home underdog? Probably tipped my hand with that last rhetorical question.
Arizona vs Kansas State Best Bet: Arizona +1.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
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Arizona vs Kansas State Betting Prediction
One team has played two blowouts, while the other has played three games decided by a total of nine points. I expect this one to be on the close side of things. Fifita versus Avery Johnson is quite the quarterback battle, as Johnson has not been the problem for Kansas State. Arizona's Kedrick Reescano (undisclosed) is questionable, while Dylan Edwards (ankle) has been cleared to return to action Friday. Brennan did a good job at San Jose State, and a Fifita-led Arizona team in 2023 went 10-3 under Jedd Fisch. A 1-2 record with a three-point win over an FCS team could be a slow start, but it's not a fluky start at this point. Arizona bearing down and scoring a win along the lines of the two 24-21 losses Kansas State has already suffered feels about right.
