College Capper: Best Bets Week 3

Chris' Picks

Hey, look at that, a winning Week 2. A blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then. Let's see if I can do it two weeks in a row.

Central Florida (-7.5) at Georgia Tech

There's no doubt the Jackets are heading in the right direction, and have a keeper in quarterback Jeff Sims. But I'm seeing roughly 63 percent of bets going towards GT, and I'm happy to go against the grain in what's a big step up in competition. UCF expects QB Dillon Gabriel to take a big step forward, return three RBs, three starting OL and an experienced defense that was anything but last season. The Jackets had trouble finishing drives against FSU last week, and that won't get it done against the Knights.

Boston College (+5.5) at Duke

This line has moved all over the place, opening at +6, tumbling to +4.5 before seemingly now settling in. I was impressed with Duke's feistiness at Notre Dame, and QB Chase Brice looks like an upgrade. But I'm banking on the Irish beating Duke twice after last week's physical battle. It's a slippery slope when one team has played while the other hasn't. Will the Eagles suffer from a lack of hitting, or will they be more prepared having seen Duke on tape? I believe Eagle RB David Bailey will be the best player on the field, and that BC can grind this out in a low scoring affair, winning outright.

Pittsburgh (-21.5) vs. Syracuse

Syracuse actually battled at North Carolina last week; they're just an awful football team. A 10-6 game went to 31-6 in a matter of five minutes, and the Orange managed only 202 total yards (134 passing, 68 rushing), as offensive line woes from 2019 carried over with UNC posting seven sacks. That's bad news with Pitt on the horizon, a defense that put up 51 sacks a year ago, tying for second. The Panthers handled their tune up with Austin Peay easily, and the offense looks to be improved from a year ago. I'd hoped this number was a bit more friendly, but I'm going to pick on the 'Cuse often.

Western Kentucky (-14) vs. Liberty

I thought WKU had a chance last week at Louisville, and while they were shredded through the air, their defense was feisty against the rush, and they didn't throw in the towel, playing four hard quarters. I think that unit will fair much better against a rebuilding Liberty squad that is replacing it's top QB, RB and WR. The Flames undoubtedly saw the Hilltopper's deficiencies, and Auburn transfer Malik Willis can certainly make big plays. But Liberty's receivers aren't nearly the caliber of Louisville's, and I expect WKU to get their rushing attack going with ease here, dominating time of possession.

Louisiana-Monroe (+6) vs. Texas State

TSU opened at just (-1), and with 82 percent of slips coming in on the Bobcats, this number has moved up all the way to six, a spot I am starting to feel okay with. ULM was simply awful against Army in their season opener, there's no getting away from that. But they've had a week off to lick their wounds, and have to come with a better effort. Texas State allowed 51 points to UTSA last week, and 31 to SMU in Week 1. I'm content to let this number rise as much as possible and fade the public.

Last Week: 3-1, Season 5-4

GREG'S PICKS

Certainly a rough start to the season. I hope everyone is taking my advice and treading lightly in the early going. Last week was filled with bad losses and tough breaks. It started poorly when UAB could not hang onto the cover against Miami on Thursday night. It got worse when Syracuse, which was down just four points heading into the 4th quarter, gave up 21 unanswered to lose the cover. The Army over never really had a chance as UL Monroe didn't have anything on offense and Clemson hasn't hit its stride yet, so no blow out there.   

The slates are starting to improve as we get more games under our belt. I feel much better about the games this week as opposed to last week. As the cards get bigger, I'll also increase the number of games selected. As for now, I'm sticking with four games because there just aren't enough good games to choose from until the SEC starts play next week. 

Syracuse (+22) at Pittsburgh 

If you are only looking at the final results from this past week, this line makes sense. After all, Pittsburgh won by 55 and Syracuse lost by 25. As just mentioned however, the Syracuse game was much closer than the final score would indicate and Pittsburgh blowout win came against Austin Peay. While I don't like the way Syracuse collapsed this past week, I do like how the Orangemen were able to hang with a North Carolina team that should be better than this Pittsburgh team. I'll take the huge number once again this week and hope Syracuse can play more than 45 minutes.            

Tulane (-7) vs Navy

I know the stink from Navy's first game is still lingering in my mind and that's never a good thing to allow one game to cloud your judgement, but it's not the only reason I am siding with Tulane in this spot. Sure, it's hard to imagine that Navy can improve enough off of its opening season loss to make this a game, but even if it figured out how to tackle, the Midshipmen might still be in trouble. Tulane has the offense to give Navy fits, heck the Green Wave scored 38 on Navy last season in a close 41-38 and I dare say that these two teams have gone in opposite directions since. Expect a slight improvement from Navy this week, but not enough to keep this game close as Tulane gets revenge on a vulnerable Navy squad.             

 Over (47.53) FAU at Georgia Southern 

Everything about this seems fishy. Both of these teams were involved in a lot of high-scoring games last season and there's no reason to think things will change all that much this season. GSU's game last week resulted in 53 combined points and while that's not a lot, it's enough to get over this total. Factor-in that FAU has plenty of fire power on offense and you'd think that this game would get over 50 with ease. FAU is also replacing a ton of starters on defense to start the this AND this is its first game and we all know the tackling issues for teams in their first games. To add to my confusion, this line opened at 50.5 and has dropped three points. I don't get it. I know it's hurricane season, is there a hurricane making landfall in Statesboro, GA on Saturday?        

Cincinnati (-33.5) vs Austin Peay

Ah, the aforementioned Austin Peay. Again, I'm hoping recency bias isn't affected my play here, but this team just got trucked by a decent Pittsburgh team and now it has a tougher test in front of them in 13th-ranked Cincinnati. Sure, this is the Bearcats first game, but that didn't seem to matter this past week when Pittsburgh was playing its first game of the season. Have I mentioned yet that the two teams decided to play 10-minute quarters during that 55-0 beat down? This game comes down to one factor alone – does Cincinnati deserve to be ranked in the top-20 right now? If so, then this game is over at the half.             

Last Week: 0-4-0, Season: 1-7-0