College Cappers: Picking Winners Week 14

Chris' Picks

Wait, what? I couldn't have possibly gone 4-1 last week, could I? If I'd only have stayed away from my Hurricanes, it would have been a clean sweep. A lot of favorites for me this week, which feels scary given the rivalry nature, but let's see if we can keep some momentum.

Virginia Tech (-3) at Virginia (Friday)

Hate the line movement, and this feels like low-hanging fruit. The Hokies have won 15 consecutive in this rivalry, and 18 of 19 with only four results settling in at one possession. The Hokies also haven't allowed a point in two games while the Cavaliers have surrendered at least 27 in three straight to the likes of Georgia Tech and Liberty. I don't love the VT offense, but UVA's secondary is banged up, and the Cavaliers have had a glaring lack of  skill-position talent all season. Until they knock off the Hokies, I'm always assuming they won't. 

Miami (OH) (+3.5) at Ball State (Friday)

This line just seems strange. Miami is 6-1 in conference and 7-4 overall, wining their last five and covering in four of those. Ball State, meanwhile, is 3-4 in conference and 4-7 overall, dropping four straight while covering just once, yet are favored? Miami doesn't do anything particularly well, and Ball State could run all over it. But the RedHawks allow only 19.8 points in conference, and should at least keep this close. While they've already wrapped up the MAC East, I expect they'll play with more effort after a lethargic showing against lowly Akron last week and try to build some momentum heading into next week's MAC championship.

North Carolina (-9) at North Carolina State

More low-hanging fruit as these teams are going in opposite directions. NCST showed some fight in the second half last week and had extra time to prepare/recoup, but they've also dropped five consecutive outright and ATS, and are 1-8 ATS since covering in the first two weeks. All but two of UNC's game's have been decided by one possession, but I like QB Sam Howell to gash the Wolfpack. He's thrown multiple touchdowns in every game, and the Pack have allowed three or more TD passes in four straight, five times allowing at least 295 yards. UNC also needs this win for bowl eligibility.

Marshall (-7.5) vs. Florida International

I'm trying to not overthink this, because I'm not a big believer in the Thundering Herd. But this just seems like an obvious spot for them to bounce back after a somewhat stunning 11-point loss at Charlotte as seven-point favorites. They had won five consecutive prior to that, and need a win and an FAU loss to keep hopes alive for a division title. Conversely, FIU just won its Super Bowl over Miami, gaining bowl eligibility in the process. Expecting them to be completely flat. Marshall's 36th-ranked rushing attack will gash FIU, something Miami was too stubborn to do a week ago.

Charlotte (-9.5) at Old Dominion

A third game where I hate the line movement, and wish I could have encouraged locking this in Sunday night when lines came out. Charlotte has been quietly good, winning four straight while covering in three. The Monarchs haven't played well, only beating Norfolk State while covering four times in 11 outings and just once in their last five. They simply can't score, with a season-high 24 points. Charlotte hitting its 31.0 scoring average covers easily.

Last week: 4-1; Season 30-36-1

GREG'S PICKS 

A 2-3 showing last week and,  to be honest, I was fortunate to get that second win. The weekend started well enough, with Illinois again coming through. Although they didn't win, the Illini were inside the number the entire game against Iowa. As that game was being played, East Carolina was struggling to put away Connecticut. The Pirates never did put away the Huskies and barely managed to get the win. Indiana could only manage to hang with Michigan for little more than a quarter and was routed by the Wolverines. Texas Tech battled Kansas State to the finish, but the Red Raiders were one step behind the entire game. Wake Forest was in the lead for most of the game against Duke, but needed a late score to get the cover.  

Virginia Tech (-3) at Virginia (Friday)

I'm generally big on the intangibles, and Virginia has a lot of the intangibles this week, but the Hokies are rolling and I don't see them losing this game. The fact that Virginia Tech has beaten Virginia 15 consecutive times is actually a little concerning, but again, the Hokies have been on a roll since nearly beating Notre Dame and they aren't about to be slowed by their in-state rival. Virginia has played well this season, but not quite up to expectations. Something has been off the entire season, and unless the Cavaliers are hitting on all cylinders, they won't win this game.  

West Virginia (+13.5) at TCU 

This season has been a struggle for the Mountaineers, but they haven't really embarrassed themselves even though they're 4-7. Sure, there have been a couple bad games, but they hung tough with Texas, Oklahoma State and Baylor and they beat Kansas State on the road. The Mountaineers have also saved their best football for the end of the season. TCU enters 5-6 and though the Horned Frogs will be playing to become bowl-eligible, I can't imagine that will be much of a prize for this group. TCU is the better team, and will win this game, but the fire power is lacking and covering this number is a huge ask.             

Marshall (-7.5) vs. Florida International 

Back to the aforementioned intangibles. You might have heard about FIU's upset of Miami as a 20-point underdog last weekend. It was a devastating loss for a Miami team that has become all too accustomed to losing as a big favorite, but this loss tops them all. That's from Miami's perspective. Now imagine the other side and how big of a win this was for FIU. In addition to toppling Goliath, the Panthers are now bowl eligible at 6-5. In other words, there's little to play for this week, which means the Panthers will spend more time celebrating last week vs. preparing for this week. Marshall is more than equipped to take advantage as the Thundering Herd are the better team to begin with.      

Michigan (+9) vs Ohio State

For weeks I haven't given much thought to this game as I've had OSU pegged as an undefeated Big Ten champion for a while now, but as we get closer, I'm starting to have second thoughts. OSU owns Michigan, but that only feeds my doubt. Everyone seems to be looking past this game and that has me worried. In addition, Ohio State finally showed some vulnerability last week against Penn State and Michigan did not, in a spot, at Indiana, where I expected the Wolverines to slip up. I can't explain it, but somehow, Michigan keeps this game close and possibly has a chance to win in the end.         

Minnesota (+2.5) vs. Wisconsin 

It's weird what 12 months can do to the perception of two programs. Twelve months ago, Minnesota went into Madison as a huge underdog and absolutely dominated the Badgers. Even after the game, though, it was tough to tell if the Gophers were that much improved or if the Badgers were just having a down season. Fast forward 12 months and it's pretty clear that the Gophers program has taken a huge step forward while the Badgers seem to be stuck in second gear. Wisconsin hasn't been the same since blowing a huge lead at Illinois and the Gophers, well, the Gophers are simply the better team now. As for the line, well it's clear that the public still doesn't buy into the Gophers, but that will only serve as even more motivation for Minnesota as P.J. Fleck gets to play the disrespect card once again.        

Last Week: 2-3-0, Season: 32-32-2