CFB FanDuel DFS Breakdown for Saturday CFP First Round
We have reached the point of the college football bowl season where the games that matter the most are upon us. While Friday's action between Alabama and Oklahoma kicks (or kicked, depending on when you read this) off the action, Saturday is the entree to Friday's appetizer, and I've got my DFS selections for FanDuel for the trio of contests.
First, let's break down the trio of games.
Obviously, we have a pair of one-sided contests on the docket, and one that is expected to be close between Texas A&M and Miami. Based on the odds, the only team that doesn't figure to be in play would be James Madison with just a 12.5 implied total. Even Tulane, as a 17.5-point underdog, sports an implied total of 20 that could yield some fantasy-relevant outputs.
Grading the teams
Miami
SP+ Rating - 21.9
PFF Rush Def Rk - 13th
PFF Pass Rush Rk - 2nd
PFF Coverage Rk - 12th
Texas A&M
SP+ Rating - 22
PFF Rush Def Rk - 25th
PFF Pass Rush Rk - 8th
PFF Coverage Rk - 32nd
Tulane
SP+ Rating - 7.7
PFF Rush Def Rk - 101st
PFF Pass Rush Rk - 12th
PFF Coverage Rk - 83rd
Ole Miss
SP+ Rating - 23.1
PFF Rush Def Rk - 31st
PFF Pass Rush Rk - 78th
PFF Coverage Rk - 58th
James Madison
SP+ Rating - 14.2
PFF Rush Def Rk - 4th
PFF Pass Rush Rk - 9th
PFF Coverage Rk - 3rd
Oregon
SP+ Rating - 27.1
PFF Rush Def Rk - 40th
PFF Pass Rush Rk - 24th
PFF Coverage Rk - 10th
As we dig into the ratings from various sources, we catch a glimpse of some of the perceived differences in SP+, as well as some of the perceived defensive deficiencies of each team.
The Tulane-Ole Miss matchup sticks out like a sore thumb, especially given Tulane's struggles on the defensive side of the ball. However, you can see why the Green Wave is expected to put up some points as well. Arguably, they are viewed as the worst pair of defenses on the slate.
You can see why Miami-Texas A&M is a close matchup, with SP+ slightly favoring Texas A&M but Miami's defense grading out better on PFF.
JMU's defense certainly grades out well on PFF, but I'm not sure it's fully adjusted for competition, and this will certainly be its toughest test to date. Even so, SP+ actually views JMU as a solid squad as well, so the massive line may speak a bit more to Oregon's excellence than JMU
College Football DFS Weather (winds 15+ MPH, precip. chance 50-plus percent and hot/cold temps noted)
Miami at Texas A&M - Winds potentially 15-17 MPH
Tulane at Oregon - Slight chance for some rain throughout the contest
Notable College Football Injuries/Absences for Saturday, December 20
QB
None
RB
Le'Veon Moss, Texas A&M - hasn't playedsince October due to an ankle injury but is a GTD for this one.
WR
Dakorien Moore, Oregon - Viewed as a likely GTD for Saturday.
Gary Bryant, Oregon - Expected to be a GTD
Evan Stewart, Oregon - Likely GTD, hasn't played at all this season to date. Seems like the longest odds of the trio to play but still stands a chance it seems. Tough to read
Bryce Bohanon, Tulane - Expected to warm up Saturday after being upgraded to questionable on the availability report
TE
Dae'Quan Wright, Ole Miss - Expected to play against Tulane
College Football DFS Tools
- FanDuel Lineup Optimizer
- Matchups Page (Vegas odds, opponent averages, etc.)
- Advanced Lineups Page
- Stats
- Team Trends
- Targets
- Defense vs. Position
- Team Rankings
FanDuel CFB DFS Plays for Saturday, December 20
Quarterback
Trinidad Chambliss, Mississippi ($12,500) vs. Tulane
No reason to get too cute at the quarterback position, even though I found myself waffling on Chambliss because Tulane does present a decent pass rush, he's alrady proven he doesn't need a big showing on the ground to put up solid fantasy numbers. Tulane's secondary is a bit of an issue, and Chambliss should be able to make things happen in the passing attack versus a defense yielding 7.5 yards per pass attempt and 255.2 passing yards and 1.7 passing touchdowns per contest. Plus, I think the team wants to show up Lane Kiffin after Kiffin departed for LSU.
Dante Moore, Oregon ($11,000) vs. James Madison
Same thing here with Moore, we can find ways to save up elsewhere, so let's look at the top of the board for the quarterback position. He's put up solid numbers down the stretch despite being without some of his top weapons, and there's a chance he could get the full allotment of weapons and more back for the start of the College Football Playoff. JMU has great ratings from PFF, but we saw Louisville drop 28 on them earlier this season, and a subpar Wazzu team dropped 20, so Oregon should be able to put some up as well.
Jake Retzlaff, Tulane ($8,500) at Ole Miss
As mentioned, the Tulane-Ole Miss game is still one to look at for fantasy production on both sides, and Retzlaff is the guy I'd most like to include from the Green Wave. Not only is he a contributor as a runner, totaling 610 rushing yards and 16touchdowns, but he can do it all, also throwing for 2,862 yards and 14 scores. Ole Miss has allowed 551 yrushing yards and six rushing touchdowns over 12 games this season, so there should be an opportunity for Retzlaf to get involved on the ground.
Running Back
Kewan Lacy, Ole Miss ($11,500) vs. Tulane
While Tulane's coverage unit is rough (83rd per PFF), the rush defense is its worst asset at 102nd. Lacy is a workhorse for the Rebels, racking up a combined 58 carries over the last two games. In a game where Ole Miss is a favorite north of two touchdowns, the game script certainly favors a healthy dose of the rushing attack. Making the players fit at the high-dollar salaries will be a challenge; there are other options at this position and others that should allow it.
Jamauri McClure, Tulane ($6,800) at Ole Miss
As mentioned, if we're aiming to include Lacy in the lineup, this is a spot where I think we can save some money at the running back spot. I'm not super keen on stacking multiple Tulane players with just a 20.0 implied total. McClure has taken on a workhorse role down the stretch, culminating in a season-high 22 carries for 121 yards and a touchdown against North Texas in the AAC Championship Game. While I wouldn't anticipate that number of carries in this contest, given the expected game script, he should get enough work to be worth a look from a fantasy standpoint at this salary.
Girard Pringle, Miami ($6,000) at Texas A&M
Pringle really burst on the scene down the stretch and put together a strong showing against Pitt in the regular-season finale, totaling 10 carries for 82 yards. While Mark Fletcher is likely still viewed as the starter for the Hurricanes, Pringle will get his fair share of totes against a run defense that ranks 25th overall.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
KC Concepcion, Texas A&M ($9,200) vs. Miami
While Malachi Toney may be the most popular option near the top of the board at wide receiver coming off of two mammoth efforts, I'm counting on that extra time for the Aggies to prepare to get more than prepared to slow him down. In games where I don't know if the scoreboard will be lit up, I'm more looking for the best opportunities to hit paydirt. Concepcion is that player for the Aggies, finding the end zone a slate-high nine times on the season. I think it will be tough for Texas A&M to find consistent running room, so let me take a shot here in the passing attack.
De'Zhaun Stribling, Ole Miss ($7,600) vs. Tulane
Stribling had a slow start to the season but really came on over the last pair of regular-season contests, totaling a combined eight catches for 142 yards and three touchdowns. While Stribling's target share (13.2 percent) is slightly below that of both Harrison Wallace (20.2 percent) and Cayden Lee (15. percent8) over the last three games, he did the most with his looks, racking up 166 yards and three touchdowns. Also consider Deuce Alexander ($6,900) if you need to save up a litle more salary, but I like the upside of Sribling a bit more.
CJ Daniels, Miami ($7,200) at Texas A&M
As mentioned above, I think the Aggies' defense will be keying on Toney in this one, which could open additional opportunities for Daniels. Daniels is no slouch himself, amassing 45 targets over eight games and turning in seven touchdowns over that span. He's the best bet to reach paydirt in the receiving room, in my eyes, and you can get him at a sizable discount from Toney.
Oregon healthy receivers
It's really tough to get a read on who will be available for the Ducks, but there are a number of players worth considering.
The top two on the list are Malik Benson ($8,000) and tight end Kenyon Sadiq ($7,500), who both carry no injury designation into the contest. I'm more interested in Sadiq, I think, given the potential for a number of talented wideouts to be available for the Ducks. Jeremiah McClellan ($6,300) is the other healthy name who has played recently, but he hasn't produced a ton even with other starters out.
Now, to the talented list of injured, questionable wideouts. First, we have freshman Dakorien Moore ($7,100). He sports just two targets fewer than Benson despite missing the final four contests, so there's a good bet he'll be significantly involved if he gets the green light. Gary Bryant ($5,700) is the next on this list for the Ducks, and he's tied with Benson for WR team lead in touchdowns despite missing most of the final four contests as well. That said, all four of his touchdowns came in the first five games.
The final wildcard here is Evan Stewart ($5,300), who has missed all season while recovering from a knee injury. Stewart was expected to serve in a starring role for Oregon this year before getting injured before the 2025 campaign. Even if he manages to suit up and play, I'd be concerned about both rustiness and conditioning concerns in his first game back, and I'm not sure he'd be back at 100 percent, either.
Favorite plays - Sadiq, Moore, Bryant (pending health for Moore and Bryant)
