College Football Fantasy Five: SEC Analytics, Systems and Trends

College Football Fantasy Five: SEC Analytics, Systems and Trends

This article is part of our College Football Fantasy Five series.

Even though there are no official college football games being played, it doesn't mean that we can't start preparing for the 2022 fantasy college football season. I've already revealed my top five new head coach landing spots with significant college fantasy football (CFF) implications. 

Now I'm going to dig into each conference to find some interesting offensive trends with an emphasis on Offensive Yards Per Play data over the last five seasons. Offensive YPP is a great indicator for a team's true efficiency and is extremely relevant for CFF purposes. I'll also sprinkle in some team passing and rushing percentages which help us understand whether a team has a tendency towards a certain play style on offense. Please be aware that 2020 was an odd season with the COVID-19 protocols and a smaller sample size of games.

Big Ten Offensive Analytics and Trends (6/6/22)
ACC Analytics, Systems and Trends (6/13/22)
Big 12 Analytics, Systems and Trends (6/21/22)
Pac 12 Analytics, Systems and Trends (6/27/22)

Here are five interesting trends and patterns that popped off the paper at me:

Top Five Offensive Trends and Analytics for the SEC

5.) More About Volume than Efficiency at Mississippi State

   20212020201920182017
Mississippi St Rank63108372379
  Off YPP5.94.836.166.325.51
  Total Yards57393032520148245442
  Total Pass Att704489315291353
  Total Rush Att270139529472634
  Pass %72.28%77.87%37.32%38.14%35.76%

Head Coach Mike Leach took over in Starkville in 2020 and installed his infamous Air Raid offense where he has consistently utilized a passing rate in excess of 70 percent. Here are his numbers as a coach for the last five years:

HC Mike Leach  Miss. St.Washington St.
   20212020201920182017
  Rank6310853370
  Off YPP5.94.837.146.215.56
  Total Yards57393032656855425653
  Total Pass Att704489710628713
  Total Rush Att270139210264303
  Pass %72.28%77.87%77.17%70.40%70.18%

With SEC defenses having the ability to adjust and plan for pretty much any type of college offense, I don't see the Bulldogs getting near a top-10 efficiency like Leach's 2019 Washington State squad, but the play volume will be plentiful. Outside of the conference, Mississippi State should roll with some monster fantasy performances against Memphis, Arizona, Bowling Green and East Tennessee State.

CFF Players to Consider
QB Will Rogers (ADP ~ Rounds 3-5)
RB Jo'quavious Marks (ADP ~ Rounds 10-12)
WR Jaden Walley (ADP ~ Rounds 17-20)
WR Austin Williams (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)
RB Dillon Johnson (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)

4.) Restocked and Reloaded via the Portal at Mississippi

   20212020201920182017
Mississippi Rank37105479
  Off YPP6.37.0267.126.9
  Total Yards64024508534361265548
  Total Pass Att430263332441434
  Total Rush Att589379559419370
  Pass %42.20%40.97%37.26%51.28%53.98%

Ole Miss is returning just five starters on the offensive end, yet make this list because they hit the transfer portal hard. They bring in Zach Evans from TCU, a former five-star recruit who has the upside to be one of the best running backs in the country, and Jaxson Dart from USC to replace two-year starter, Matt Corral, at quarterback. Lane Kiffin is one of the best offensive minds in college football as he more than proved that while at Florida Atlantic where he ranked 57th, 38th and 11th in Offensive FPP in his three years there.

CFF Players to Consider
RB Zach Evans (ADP ~ Rounds 3-4)
TE Michael Trigg (ADP ~ Rounds 5-7)
WR Jordan Watkins (ADP ~ Rounds 5-7)
QB Jaxson Dart (ADP ~ Rounds 10-12)
WR Jonathan Mingo (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)
WR Jaylon Robinson (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)

3.) It's Not Just the Defense That's Great at Georgia

   20212020201920182017
Georgia Rank43646512
  Off YPP76.126.087.256.7
  Total Yards66373792571362246529
  Total Pass Att407267415322305
  Total Rush Att545353525537670
  Pass %42.75%43.06%44.15%37.49%31.28%

The Bulldogs are known for their NFL-level defenders, yet their offense has been one of the best and most consistent units over the last five years as well. Last season's national championship squad averaged 39 points and 442 yards of total offense per game. In early summer drafts, tight ends Brock Bowers and Arik Gilbert have been their only playmakers getting some ADP love. That's an oversight as this team is going to be productive and put up all kinds of offense. In my opinion, Kendall Milton has breakout potential and Stetson Bennett is worth at least a flyer late in drafts as he had seven different games with more than 20 fantasy points in 2021. You can not go wrong with building depth on your fantasy squad with Georgia playmakers.

CFF Players to Consider
TE Brock Bowers (ADP ~ Rounds 3-4)
WR Arik Gilbert (ADP ~ 14-16)
RB Kendall Milton (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)
WR Ladd McConkey (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)
QB Stetson Bennett (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)

2.) Transfer Receivers are Worth Targeting at Alabama

   20212020201920182017
Alabama Rank1623213
  Off YPP6.67.97.897.926.59
  Total Yards73235378664068596217
  Total Pass Att571307406374332
  Total Rush Att547374436492612
  Pass %51.07%45.08%48.22%43.19%35.17%

The Crimson Tide's offense has been statistically awesome and early ADP data is certainly suggesting that notion. One trend to note is the uptick in pass percentage last year with Bryce Young, so I think there's a chance that continues to go up. Young will be showcasing for the NFL and he has a loaded receiver corps with a couple of transfers coming over. I'm a huge fan of speedster Tyler Harrell, who is going undrafted in some leagues. In my eyes, he's a realistic candidate to replace the role played by Jameson Williams and is significantly easier to attain than Jermaine Burton. Alabama wouldn't have brought in the transfer receivers if they didn't feel they needed them. 

CFF Players to Consider
QB Bryce Young (ADP ~ Mid-1st Round)
RB Jahmyr Gibbs (ADP ~ Mid-1st Round)
WR Jermaine Burton (ADP ~ Rounds 2-3)
WR Ja'Corey Brooks (ADP ~ Rounds 10-12)
WR JoJo Earle (ADP ~ Rounds 12-14)
TE Cameron Latu (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)
WR Tyler Harrell (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)

1.) All the Arrows are Up at Tennessee

   20212020201920182017
Tennessee Rank17916788121
  Off YPP6.55.225.795.464.77
  Total Yards61693249475239063493
  Total Pass Att376265360297319
  Total Rush Att576358461419413
  Pass %39.50%42.54%43.85%41.48%43.58%

HC Josh Heupel and OC Alex Golesh worked their offensive magic in their first year with Tennessee and the Volunteers set an all-time scoring record with 39 points per game. They return eight starters from that squad including their top quarterback, running back and wide receiver. The SEC is loaded with some nice offenses, but Tennessee is my favorite and the one I trust most to return value on players selected in college fantasy drafts. If some of those starting playmakers go down with an injury, I would just lock and load with this offense, so I advise keeping an eye on this team for waiver wire purposes as well.

CFF Players to Consider
QB Hendon Hooker (ADP ~ Rounds 1-2)
WR Cedric Tillman (ADP ~ Rounds 1-2)
RB Jabari Small (ADP ~ Rounds 14-16)
WR Jalin Hyatt (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Nick Grays
Grays covers college football for RotoWire by night and is a Financial Analyst by day.
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