College Football Picks: Picking Winners Week 12

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Updated on November 18, 2016 5:18PM EST

CHRIS' PICKS

I'm honestly not sure the internet has see a run like this, so that I'm not getting more credit is starting to get on my nerves. I've now picked 38 games, and been wrong 26 times, a 68.4 percent clip.

It seems virtually impossible for one to miss that often, and if you received standard 1.91:1 return on the spread, by fading me with a $100 bet on each pick, you'd be up nearly $4,000. Maybe now that I've been so frank with the numbers, I'll pick a few correctly?

Florida (+13.5) at LSU

This game features the nation's fourth- and fifth-ranked scoring defenses, which makes this spread seem awfully big. Florida has allowed more than 14 points only twice this season, and while LSU has been much more dynamic offensively sans Les Miles, the Gators allow just 3.06 yards per carry, giving them a shot at containing Leonard Fournette. Assuming they don't get shut out, I think they can keep this within two touchdowns.

Massachusetts (+30) at BYU

Despite being 2-8, the Minutemen give a great effort each week and are battle tested, having already played at Florida, South Carolina and Mississippi State. Their largest defeat in those games was 17 points to the Gators, and while BYU is arguably better than South Carolina or Mississippi State, it's only topped 30 points in a game three times this year, one coming against Southern Utah. Assuming UMass isn't looking forward to next week's vacation in Hawaii, I

The Hokies have two losses that make you turn your head and ask how is it possible? This team is far too good to to lose to Georgia Tech and Syracuse. But after falling to the Orange, the Hokies rebounded to rout Miami. I expect a similar effort after last week's upset by the Jackets. Yes, first-time visitors to Notre Dame Stadium are 13-59-1 straight up, and maybe I'm attempting to put the jinx on here, hoping my friends and family traveling to South Bend for the game come home as disappointed as I did when we visited for the Miami game a few weeks back. But the Hokies are simply a better team and should emerge victorious.

Over (67) Navy at East Carolina

Taking the over in a game with Navy always worries me due to its clock-churning option offense. But the Midshipmen have put up at least 42 points in four of their last five games and should have no trouble doing so again against a defense that has allowed 582 rushing yards in its last two games. If I think Navy gets to 42 points, and the spread in this game is Navy +7, that tells me oddsmakers think East Carolina is capable of scoring 30. They won't need that much to push this game over the total.

Old Dominion (-8) at Florida Atlantic

Despite its 3-7 record, FAU has been competitive, with four losses by six or fewer points. And all three of ODU's losses have come on the road. So, I'll go against conventional wisdom and take a surging Monarchs team that still has an outside shot at winning its division in CUSA. ODU's seven wins have all been by at least 10 points, and its average margin of victory is 21.4. The Monarchs average 5.0 yards per carry on the ground, which plays right into the Owls' woeful 107th-ranked rush defense, which should allow them to move up and down the field while also keeping FAU's offense sidelined and not scoring.

Penn State (-28) at Rutgers

I'm apparently all in on road teams this week, so why not pick one more in hopes of a blowout? After Rutgers' embarrassing outing last week against a bad Michigan State team, how can anyone think they haven't quit on the season? They lost to Michigan and Ohio State by a combined 136-0 and rank 124th against the run nationally, allowing 251.3 yards per game and 27 rushing scores. Saquon Barkley should have a field day in this one as the Nittany Lions win going away.

Last Week: 0-5, Season: 11-26-1

GREG'S PICKS 

 Line-moves are just a part of this game. Sometimes you are on the right side, sometimes the wrong side. More often than not, the breaks will even out throughout the season (you hope), but that doesn't soften the blow when you are on the wrong side of a couple games in the same week.

I'm referencing two of my games last week. Games that, for purposes of this article were losses, but if you had moved late on said games, then you probably won. The first game was the under in the Ole Miss – Texas A&M game. Early in the week, when I wrote my article, the total was 55, by game time, it had risen to nearly 60. The actual score came in 29-28 – right in the middle. The second game was another total, in the Alabama game. As of writing, the total was 55.5, by game time it had fallen to 51. The game ended up 51-3, again, in the middle of the two lines. Hopefully, if you did play, you got in at the right time.

As for the rest of the week, I finished 2-2. An outright winner with Pittsburgh as a 21-point dog and a fairly easy cover from Oklahoma. The losses were Arkansas, which was never close and the total in the WKU game, which had a chance, but couldn't quite get over the number.

 Northwestern (-1.5) at Minnesota

I've been in a pretty good groove with both of these teams this year and I expect a close game here, but the Wildcats should prevail. The Gophers played a great game last week, but quite honestly, I'm not sure they are capable of duplicating that effort this week. The last time they came off a tough loss was Week 5, after an overtime loss at Penn State they came out flat against Iowa. Northwestern has lost to all of the upper-echelon teams in the Big Ten, but the Cats have taken care of business against the lower and middle-tier teams in the conference.

 Over (65.5) West Virginia vs. Oklahoma

  This should be a very entertaining game and one in which I expect Oklahoma to dictate the pace. The Mountaineers don't play nearly as fast as Oklahoma, but they are going to stay close in this game, which means they'll have to put up points. Oklahoma won easily last week against Baylor, but it didn't appear as though the Sooners were firing on all cylinders. Expect that to change this week as any hope of a playoff berth will be on the line.

Virginia Tech (+1.5) at Notre Dame

Don't be fooled by the walloping the Irish put on Army last week, they are not back. A week prior they lost to Navy and two weeks prior, to a Stanford team in disarray. Yes, they beat Miami, but the Hurricanes aren't exactly setting the world on fire this season. The moral of the story is this – Notre Dame can't beat good teams. Virginia Tech is not a great team, maybe not even that good, but when motivated, like it will be this week, the Hokies can play the part.

Colorado (-4.5) vs. Washington State

It's that time of the year where we get to see if Colorado is for real. The Buffs have already passed a number of tests this season, but this will be the biggest to date as they face a Washington State team that has won eight consecutive. The problem with the Cougars, however, is they've built that winning streak on the soft underbelly of the Pac-12. There's no USC, no Utah, no Washington in there; none of the teams considered tough, if you will. Just a bunch of Cal's, ASU's and teams from Oregon.

Ohio State (-22) at Michigan State

Credit the Spartans, they took care of business last week against the worst team in the country, but now it's back to reality. Not only has Michigan State lost to every decent team this year, but it's lost by large margins. In steps Ohio State, which, with Michigan's loss last week, no longer controls its own destiny as far as the Big Ten is concerned. The Buckeyes can bolster their image, however, with another blowout win this week. In fact, they might need a blowout win to keep their current momentum and as the last couple weeks have proved, they are certainly capable.

  Last Week: 2-4; Season: 20-25