College Football Picks: Picking Winners Week 14

CHRIS' PICKS

Back to back losing weekends has me rather nervous as I make picks for Championship Saturday. And again, no moral victories, but I nearly stumbled into a backdoor cover with Ohio State, while all Virginia needed was a lousy field goal to cover. I'd be a little less salty about my fading record if all my loses were as bad as Notre Dame's at Stanford. Let's see if I can regain my early season form just in time for the postseason.

And without knowing what my colleague will write up, I am not touching the ACC championship game. As a Hurricane, I've thought about trying to throw some voodoo sorcery out there, but I'm going to leave well enough alone and enjoy having rooting interest in an important game for the first time in more than a decade.

Louisiana Monroe +27 at Florida State

This is just a weird setting for the Seminoles. As I write, Jimbo Fischer has not confirmed his future with the program. There's also the announcement of tight end Mavin Saunders' transfer. While he's not an integral part of the offense, this seems like the kind of announcement that would come before a bowl game. It seems as though the school rescheduled this game to gain bowl eligibility, and the team isn't overly interested in preparation. There's enough talent to win going away, but a four-score win for a non-motivated squad seems to be asking for a lot.

Florida Atlantic -11 vs. North Texas

I'm back and forth as to whether prior meetings this season actually matter and as to whether I believe it's truly that big of a task to beat a team twice in a year. So if we ignore the 38-point beatdown Lane Kiffin and company put on North Texas earlier this season, we see that UNT ranks 104 nationally against the run, allowing 202 yards per game. FAU ranks sixth nationally in rushing, while UNT just allowed Army to gash it for 534 yards and seven scores on the ground. That suggests the Owls' offense should roll. And if we want to bring back into play that earlier meeting, FAU had 447 yards and seven rushing touchdowns.

Auburn –2.5 vs. Georgia

I think we know both teams want to run the ball, and both teams have physically dominant defenses that, in theory, should keep the ground games somewhat in check (assuming Kerryon Johnson is a full go.) What this game comes down to for me is quarterback play, and I find Auburn's Jarrett Stidham to be the far better bet. He's completing 68.5 percent of his passes and has tossed only four interceptions while Jake Fromm has topped 200 yards just three times. Stidham is more capable of catapulting his team to a big lead early, or bringing his team from behind late or putting them on his shoulders if the ground game is corralled.

Oklahoma –7 vs. TCU

TCU has had trouble stopping pass-happy offenses (sans for a Texas Tech outlier), allowing at least 314 yards to SMU, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Baylor and Saturday's opponent in the Sooners. The Horned Frogs also haven't been great offensively down the stretch, averaging 24.6 points over their final five, which includes the 45 points they posted on lowly Baylor last week. The Sooners' season low is 31 points and they average 45.3 points, including 48.5 in their last six games. I like the Sooners to score enough to win by double-digits.

Wisconsin +6.5 vs. Ohio State

This column feels a little chalky, even with the ULM pick included, so let's include one more underdog. Wisconsin ranks first nationally in rushing defense (80.5 yards per game) and second in scoring defense (12.0 ppg). The playoff rankings continue to point toward a lack of schedule strength for their statistical dominance, which is a fair point. But Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett isn't 100 percent healthy, and the Buckeyes' defense has shown lapses. If you expect a typical low-scoring, battle in the trenches, Big Ten-type game, there's no reason the Badgers can't keep this within one score with plenty of running and a timely play in the passing game.

Last week: 2-3; Season: 36-34-2

GREG'S PICKS

A strange Week 13 as only one game was close, but a familiar record of one off of .500 was the end result. This time it was on the wrong side of .500, but I've built up enough cushion to survive a down week and stay well above even for the season. The aforementioned close game was TCU, which did not show up on defense in the first half, and it was too much to overcome. The Horned Frogs won by 22, but it was a struggle to get that far ahead. The two wins were fairly easy and both Arkansas and Michigan were within one score for a majority or their respective games. The losses were pretty bad as Alabama trailed the entire way at Auburn and Tennessee played like, well, Tennessee, and looked terrible against a weak Vanderbilt.



Over 82 Memphis vs. Central Florida



If we divide the total by four quarters, we need little more than 20 points per quarter. When you look at it that way, suddenly a total of 82 doesn't seem so daunting. It also helps that UCF averages 48.3 points per game this season, while Memphis averages 47 points per game. Neither team has played much defense this year, either. Memphis allows more than 30 points per game and UCF gives up more than 22 points per game. UCF's number doesn't look so bad, but remember, its schedule is full of terrible teams that have no business scoring 20 points on a decent team.


Toledo -21.5 vs. Akron



I've actually put in a lot of time the last two weeks watching MAC football. Thank you, thank you for your condolences. It's been quite terrible. One thing I did learn, though, is that Akron might be the worst team to ever appear in a championship game of any sort. I'm talking high school, Pop Warner, you name it; the Zips are terrible. The Zips somehow won by 10 points last week and they couldn't have been less impressive. Their QB is terrible, their WRs can't catch, they can't block and any decent offense should run all over them. That was exactly what happened when they faced the Rockets in October and Toledo won going away, 48-21. It's a wonder that Akron scored 21 points in that game, but I dare say that feat will not be repeated this week. Toledo should get up early and turn this into a route by halftime. Oh, and if you think I am exaggerating how bad Akron is, think about this, the Zips are a 21-POINT UNDERDOG IN A CHAMPIONSHIP GAME! 



Georgia +2.5 vs. Auburn

First I take Alabama to beat Auburn, now I am on Georgia. I must have an anti-Auburn bias, but as I pointed out last week, that's not true, I was on the side of Auburn when these two teams met up the first time. So what's changed? For starters, the location of the game no longer favors the Tigers. The Tigers are also coming off a game against Alabama, and while the final score wasn't all that close, it was still an incredibly physical game and that's not easy to overcome. Last but not least, everything worked for Auburn the last time these two teams played and Georgia is in a position to make adjustments. Meanwhile, nothing worked for Georgia, so Auburn has no idea what to prepare for. I don't feel great about this one, but it's a huge game and I feel obligated to pick a side.

Clemson -9.5 vs. Miami



It's strange, the Hurricanes have looked their best against better competition this season. Their habit of letting teams stick around caught up with them last week at Pittsburgh. While the line might seem a bit high, I think it's in the proper range as Miami has played its best at home. On the road, the Hurricanes haven't looked like a top-10 team. Clemson has had no such issues as it went to South Carolina's home field and crushed the Gamecocks last week. Clemson also happens to be hitting its stride, and that's a bad sign for the Hurricanes, whose run is at an end.

Wisconsin +6.5 vs. Ohio State

How exactly are we to gauge the Badgers? It's absolutely true that they haven't played anyone this season, yet they've been impressive in dispatching lesser opponents with ease for the most part. In other words, they've done all they can do with what the schedule gave them. The same cannot be said for Ohio State, which lost two games by more than 14 points and beat only one quality opponent in Penn State. If not for the name on the jersey, this game would be a pick 'em and as such, I'm taking the points. I could be wrong, Wisconsin could be a total fraud, but I'm not sold on OSU as an elite team.

BOUNS PICK

TCU +7 vs. Oklahoma

I simply have a feeling about this one. TCU let me down last week, but I have faith in its defense and the same cannot be said about Oklahoma's defense.



Last Week: 2-3; Season: 37-29