This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
After going 1-4 last week, Mario's record stood at 10-18 through four weeks. We've called in reinforcements to see if we can crack the code in Week 5.
CHRIS' PICKS
Washington (-3.5) vs. Stanford (Friday)
I'd expect a lot of public money to land on Stanford based on its recent success and a lack of familiarity with Washington, but I think the home-field advantage for the Huskies is somewhat undervalued here. Maybe it's the Miami Hurricane homer in me, but Husky Stadium against a top-ranked opponent is an awfully difficult place to play, and the prime-time opportunity will have that place rocking. Stanford's passing game has been non-existent, and is easily the most questionable unit in this contest, while Washington's pass defense is allowing only 175.3 yards per game. While stopping Christian McCaffrey is the obvious necessity no one has been able to accomplish, Washington brings an impressive linebacking corps to the table that, when paired with some help from the back four, seems up to the task. Yes, the Huskies were gashed for 308 yards rushing last week, but 176 of it came from Arizona quarterback Brandon Dawkins. Cardinals' QB Ryan Burns offers no such threat. With Stanford playing without its top two corners, expect quarterback Jake Browning to build on his 14 touchdown passes, the second highest total in the nation, and lead the Huskies to a convincing win.
Ball State (-4) vs. Northern Illinois
This number, in theory, is merely home-field advantage, for whatever advantage
After going 1-4 last week, Mario's record stood at 10-18 through four weeks. We've called in reinforcements to see if we can crack the code in Week 5.
CHRIS' PICKS
Washington (-3.5) vs. Stanford (Friday)
I'd expect a lot of public money to land on Stanford based on its recent success and a lack of familiarity with Washington, but I think the home-field advantage for the Huskies is somewhat undervalued here. Maybe it's the Miami Hurricane homer in me, but Husky Stadium against a top-ranked opponent is an awfully difficult place to play, and the prime-time opportunity will have that place rocking. Stanford's passing game has been non-existent, and is easily the most questionable unit in this contest, while Washington's pass defense is allowing only 175.3 yards per game. While stopping Christian McCaffrey is the obvious necessity no one has been able to accomplish, Washington brings an impressive linebacking corps to the table that, when paired with some help from the back four, seems up to the task. Yes, the Huskies were gashed for 308 yards rushing last week, but 176 of it came from Arizona quarterback Brandon Dawkins. Cardinals' QB Ryan Burns offers no such threat. With Stanford playing without its top two corners, expect quarterback Jake Browning to build on his 14 touchdown passes, the second highest total in the nation, and lead the Huskies to a convincing win.
Ball State (-4) vs. Northern Illinois
This number, in theory, is merely home-field advantage, for whatever advantage can be had at Scheumann Stadium. As such, it feels like a low spread against a Huskies team that hasn't won to date and is coming off of a loss to Western Illinois. NIU ranks 113th against the run, allowing 236.25 yards per game and only eight FBS teams have allowed more than the Huskies' 11 rushing touchdowns. Ball State, meanwhile, ranks 33rd in rushing offense, and with dual-threat quarterback Riley Neal also capable of throwing downfield, I'll take the Cardinals to cover.
Over 69 Florida State vs. North Carolina
The two team's combined are averaging 84.3 points and giving up 65.0 points. Is handicapping this simple? Florida State looked vulnerable to deep passes last week against South Florida with Derwin James sidelined, something at which UNC quarterback Mitch Trubisky flourishes. On the other side, the Tar Heels haven't had a clue against the run, allowing at least 181 yards in all four games and twice giving up more than 280 yards on the ground. With Dalvin Cook getting right last week, big plays should come often, and points should follow.
Texas A&M (-18) at South Carolina
Eighteen points is certainly a big number to lay on the road, but truthfully, anything less than 21 seems like a winning proposition. The Gamecocks simply don't have an offense. They're averaging 14.3 points, the second lowest total in FBS, and the best scoring defense they've faced is a 53rd-ranked Mississippi State squad. Meanwhile, the Aggies are putting up 43 points and boast the nation's 10th-ranked rushing attack, averaging 269.3 yards per game. South Carolina is 94th against the run. This game looks like a mismatch of great proportions, and the spread doesn't fully reflect that.
Arizona State (+10) at USC
Taking a team that doesn't even attempt to play defense to keep things close certainly scares me. The Sun Devils have given up 91 points in their two games against Power 5 schools, though they came against pass-happy California and Texas Tech. The Trojans showed some fight and a semblance of an offense last week against Utah under new quarterback Sam Darnold, but I find myself asking what have they done to deserve to be this large of a favorite?
Buyer beware: The following games have the "too obvious" look, and fall into the category that always have casual bettors asking what the book knows that you don't.
Tennessee (-3) at Georgia
Tennessee's defense is better than the Ole Miss unit that dismantled Georgia last week. And while that game was at home for the Rebels and the Vols are on the road, it's hard to see the Bulldogs' offense improving much when it's likely to be without its top weapon in running back Nick Chubb. Tennessee has shown it can play 30-plus minutes of lackadaisical football and then flip a switch, so maybe the Dawgs keep this close for a bit, but Tennessee should pull away late for a comfortable cover.
Michigan State (-7) at Indiana
Yes, Sparty was boatraced by Wisconsin last weekend and could suffer from a hangover. Its defense could be without two starting linebackers, but the offense has been efficient against lesser opponents. Across the field is just that in a Hoosiers squad that just gave up 33 points to offensively challenged Wake Forest in a home loss. Michigan State is simply a better team, bringing a top-15 rush defense into Bloomington that can force the Hoosiers to be one dimensional. Indiana quarterback Richard Lagow threw five interceptions last week, and any mistake will have his confidence shaken.
GREG'S PICKS
Like the left-handed specialist from the bullpen, I've been called-in to take on this pesky slate of games this week. Is it a good call by the manager, or will it be second-guessed all week?
There's only one way to find out.
Memphis (+14.5) at Mississippi
Memphis has beaten-up on some weak competition this season, and while the Tigers are certainly moving up in class this week, they proved they could handle a top-tier team last year when they beat these very same Rebels. What about the revenge factor, you say? I hear you, but with Alabama, Florida State and Georgia in their rear-view mirror and dates at Arkansas and LSU on the road in the next two weeks, I highly doubt the Rebels are too concerned with getting revenge this week. If ever there was a spot to let up, it's right here.
Iowa (-13.5) vs. Northwestern
The Hawkeyes aren't as good as we thought they were at the beginning of the season, but their loss to NDSU works in our favor. Northwestern gave everything it had last week at home against Nebraska and still couldn't cover a 7-point spread; I certainly don't like the Wildcats' odds on the road against a team that has a lot to prove the rest of the way.
Ohio State (-38) vs. Rutgers
Ohio State has had two weeks since its statement win against Oklahoma and with Rutgers on deck, there's no reason to look past the opponent in front of it. As such, the Buckeyes will do what's needed this week to grab some national attention, and that's win by a huge margin.
Clemson (+2) vs. Louisville
Imagine you are the Clemson Tigers. You battled the king of the hill in the national title game last season, you return most of your weapons and you are a home dog to a team that had little to no buzz entering the season. You might be a little ticked off, no? Imagine you are Deshaun Watson, one of the best players in the nation last year, Heisman front-runner at the beginning of this season and now you are a dog at home to the guy who's the new Heisman front-runner. You might be a little ticked off, no? Look, I love Lamar Jackson as much as the next guy. He's an all-world talent who looks unstoppable, but Clemson is a complete team, and if the Tigers can slow Jackson at all, they will win this week. I realize that's a large task, but with each passing week, opposing teams get more film and with it more ideas on how to stop Jackson. Louisville passed a big test at home against FSU a couple weeks ago, but this is an entirely different test, one that I think it fails this week.
The following games are high-profile matchups I don't have a strong opinions on. But they has obvious interest to the college football-viewing public, so I'll throw in my two cents. By rule, I can receive praise for these picks, but I cannot receive scorn. I didn't make the rule, I just play by it.
Stanford (+3.5) at Washington (Friday)
This game comes down to battle-tested vs. new to this. Stanford has been there and done that the Last couple years and many of its players have played in some really big games, while the Huskies are fairly new to this, which is never a good thing in tight games. I'll take experience over home-field advantage in this one. Oh, and I'll take the points too.
Wisconsin (+10.5) at Michigan
I've watched a lot of Badger football this season and while I'm not all that impressed with the results, I think this line is a bit inflated. In fact, it's so big, that I'm worried about a trap.
