College Football Picks: Picking Winners Week 7

CHRIS' PICKS

I learned quite a bit last week. I learned that I kind of do know "my" conference in the ACC. I also learned I'm happy to post a losing week when it comes with my Hurricanes snapping a seven-game losing streak to their rival. I also learned that East Carolina and Connecticut could be the worst teams I've ever seen and that I should never doubt their futility. It's been a trying week for me personally, so these picks come with a lot of immediate emotion and/or gut feel. But my gut is big, and I'm due a winning week!

There are a lot of lines I don't think are large enough, but despite their size there seems to be more reason to take them than not. They include UCF –35 vs. ECU, Alabama –30 vs. Arkansas, Temple –10 vs. UCONN and Georgia –30 vs. Missouri. Four-game teaser anyone? Anyway, on to the picks.

Illinois –2.5 vs. Rutgers

The last time the Scarlet Knights were within three points of a Power 5 school was September 2015. So until they break that streak, I'm comfortable playing against it. Illinois isn't much better, ranking 123rd in total offense, one spot below Rutgers, but it's at least beaten an FCS school. This isn't supremely high on my confidence meter, but without looking at the opponent, it's hard not to like Rutgers to lose by at least three.

Virginia –3.5 at North Carolina

Yes, I realize Virginia hasn't beaten North Carolina in seven years. But these teams are going in completely opposite directions. UNC is still fighting, and this is one of the few winnable games left on its schedule. But the Tar Heels haven't scored more than 17 points in their last three games, while Virginia is averaging 36 during its three-game winning streak. I mentioned last week that UVA likely needed to win at least three of its next four games for bowl eligibility, as it closes the season with Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami and Virginia Tech. UVA is a motivated team that's playing solid defense, and that motivation allows it to break the curse against the Heels.

Miami –5.5 vs. Georgia Tech

Going against my Canes last week paid off, as I lost but they won. One of my cardinal rules is not to pick my team, but I find this one hard to look away from. The line opened at seven, so the public seems to like the Yellow Jackets. And Miami has a known history of letdowns following the FSU game, but that history is coming off losses. Mark Richt is 14-2 against Georgia Tech, and the Jackets haven't won in Miami since 2007. Color me unimpressed by the Jackets' winning at home against Pitt and UNC. They've had a propensity for turning the ball over, which the Canes will exploit en route to a comfortable win (I hope).

Mississippi State –24 vs. BYU

The Cougars are a get-well game for many teams this year. They haven't won since Week 1 against Portland State and have been held to seven or fewer points in three of their last four games. Mississippi State is coming off a bye, which gave it plenty of time to lick its wounds after blowout losses to Georgia and Auburn. BYU allowed 296 yards on the ground to LSU and 235 to Wisconsin, and I think the Bulldogs' 17th-ranked rushing attack gets cranked up in this one.

North Carolina State –11 at Pittsburgh

It seemed some were a little too overexcited by Pittsburgh's explosion against Rice two weeks ago, as the Panthers garnered plenty of picks in my ACC Survival Pool last week at Syracuse (which was great news for me as I went with the Orange and stole a week). Pitt continues to search of an offensive identity, and now is without starting quarterback Max Browne (arm) and running back Chawntez Moss (suspension). This as a business trip for the Wolfpack, who won't encounter much hostility on the road at Heinz Field. So long as they come with a workmanlike approach, they'll have no trouble exploiting the Panthers' 108th-ranked defense.

Last week: 2-3 ; Season: 18-15-1

GREG'S PICKS

Six weeks into the season and I've yet to do better than 3-2 or worse than 2-3 in any week. Last week, however, was a good 2-3 as I was fortunate to get my two wins. One of those wins were Purdue, which was behind most of the second half only to take the lead with little time left and pile on a pick-six on the final drive. The other win was the Texas Tech over, which was on a great pace most of the game, but, like blowouts often do, the game slowed in the fourth quarter. Fortunately, the Red Raiders kept scoring and their final TD was enough to push it over the total. The losses were pretty bad, with Oregon and Maryland never in it, and Illinois which was close for a while, but got blown out in the end because of a pick-six.



California (+14) vs Washington State



It might seem like I have a vendetta against Washington State, but I don't. At least, I don't think I do. It's not so much a vendetta as distrust, I guess. Perhaps I'm not giving the Cougars enough credit as they've met every test this season. So why do I doubt them in this spot? Believe it or not, this is one of the toughest spots for an up-and-coming team to handle – the double–digit road favorite against a conference opponent. The last two games, which have been the Cougars' best to this point, were against the upper echelon of the Pac-12 and the players undoubtedly got up for those games with ease. This will be different, though, as everyone expects them to win with ease at Cal, except, of course, the Bears, who will be amped for this one. The Cougars win, but will lack the intensity to cover this number.


Wisconsin (-16.5) vs. Purdue



As you know, I was all over Purdue last week against the Gophers, and even though the Boilermakers covered, I walked away unimpressed with them as a whole. Purdue was behind the entire game and that highly touted passing attack never really got going against a beat-up secondary. This could be one of those spots where the pesky underdog gives the big bad Badgers a fight, but I don't see it playing out like that. With Michigan's loss last week, the Big Ten has a clear separation between its top-three teams and everyone else. However, Michigan was among that top-tier until it lost last week, which is something Wisconsin will be aware of here.



Over 75.5 Texas Tech at West Virginia

The total on this game has dropped about four points in the last couple days, which definitely has me worried, but I think that may be an overreaction to the relatively low-scoring game the Mountaineers played last week. But that was against a TCU team that plays defense, something the Red Raiders do not. In fact, when not playing the likes of TCU or Virginia Tech, the Mountaineers have found themselves in shootouts. That's likely to happen again this week as shootouts are all Texas Tech does. The Red Raiders barely creeped over the number last week, but that had everything to do with their opponent, which couldn't keep up at all.

Michigan State (-4) at Minnesota



Have you heard that I'm pretty locked in on the Gophers? As mentioned last week, I just have a good feel for them, and my feeling this week is that they are in trouble. Don't get me wrong, I'm still not a believer in the Spartans, even after their big win last week, but this game is one they should handle with ease. The only thing working for the Gophers offense is their run game, but stopping the run is what the Spartans do best. This is going to be an ugly game, but the Spartans have been winning ugly game all season.

Oklahoma State (-24.5) vs Baylor

I expect the Cowboys to come out with a chip on their shoulder this week after the events that unfolded in Norman last week. Yes, OU plays in Norman, and that's exactly what I am talking about. A couple weeks into the season, the nation was looking ahead to a heavyweight matchup between OSU and OU, but when the Cowboys lost to TCU, that matchup lost some luster. A couple weeks later, OU lays an egg at home to Iowa State and suddenly, both teams are looked at as failures. But the Cowboys are probably tired of being lumped in with OU as at least their loss was to a good team. Expect the Cowboys to take out some frustration this week and blow out a terrible Baylor team.

Last Week: 2-3; Season: 16-15