This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
CHRIS' PICKS
It's a pretty sad state of affairs when a 40 percent clip qualifies as a success, but I have no problems admitting my shortcomings. This column, in four weeks, has does wonders to discredit my previously impeccable reputation. Right?
I won't lament or vent last about last week's choices, I'll simply state this week has been hellacious at the day job, and I'm traveling to South Bend by way of Chicago to take in the rivalry that made me a Hurricanes fan on Saturday, so I've had little chance to over-analyze this week's spreads, which is probably a good thing. It's gut reaction time – maybe that bucks my dismal record? And if you find yourself agreeing with me, well, fading may be the better choice.
Kentucky (+5) at Missouri
Taking the Wildcats on the road is a scary prop, as they've been outscored 75-13 outside of Lexington in two games, (coming against Florida and Alabama). Missouri is neither of those, and the Tigers have only beaten Delaware State and Eastern Michigan, and have allowed at least 40 points in three consecutive games. That includes last Saturday against Middle Tennessee State, who managed 51 points. I'm not sure the Tigers are interested in playing, and getting a handful of points against a struggling defense feels prudent.
Under 52 Washington at Utah
The line here is hovering around minus-10 in favor of the Huskies, so we're looking at an expected 31-21 projected betting line. Washington ranks sixth in scoring
CHRIS' PICKS
It's a pretty sad state of affairs when a 40 percent clip qualifies as a success, but I have no problems admitting my shortcomings. This column, in four weeks, has does wonders to discredit my previously impeccable reputation. Right?
I won't lament or vent last about last week's choices, I'll simply state this week has been hellacious at the day job, and I'm traveling to South Bend by way of Chicago to take in the rivalry that made me a Hurricanes fan on Saturday, so I've had little chance to over-analyze this week's spreads, which is probably a good thing. It's gut reaction time – maybe that bucks my dismal record? And if you find yourself agreeing with me, well, fading may be the better choice.
Kentucky (+5) at Missouri
Taking the Wildcats on the road is a scary prop, as they've been outscored 75-13 outside of Lexington in two games, (coming against Florida and Alabama). Missouri is neither of those, and the Tigers have only beaten Delaware State and Eastern Michigan, and have allowed at least 40 points in three consecutive games. That includes last Saturday against Middle Tennessee State, who managed 51 points. I'm not sure the Tigers are interested in playing, and getting a handful of points against a struggling defense feels prudent.
Under 52 Washington at Utah
The line here is hovering around minus-10 in favor of the Huskies, so we're looking at an expected 31-21 projected betting line. Washington ranks sixth in scoring defense, allowing 14.6 points per game and has seen only Oregon (who allowed 70 points) and a rushing quarterback-led Arizona reach 20 or more points. Utah got burned for 45 points last week, largely through the air, but had previously not given up more than 27 points. It feels like a trap game on the road for the Huskies, and the Utes can use their rushing strength to bleed the clock and keep it close, and low scoring.
Baylor (-3) at Texas
You have to assume it's a rare instance when a 7-0 team is only a three-point favorite against a 3-4 team, despite playing on the road. It's a line that's begging for action, and maybe the over at 70 is a better play, but the Longhorns' defense ranks 78th against the rush and 102nd against the pass. Baylor's defense isn't much better against top competition, and they'll give up theirs, but the Bears are simply the better team.
Oregon (-8) vs. Arizona State
The Sun Devils have lost their two road Pac-12 games by a combined 45 points, being outscored 81-36 against Southern Cal and Colorado. Although the Ducks have been woeful defensively, they seem to have found an offense under freshman quarterback Justin Herbert, who has eight touchdowns in two weeks. It's certainly hard to place faith in a team that's lost five consecutive, and it's fair to assume a home-field advantage is dying at Autzen Stadium, but the Ducks are due a win and should be able to score at will.
Under 50.5 Tennessee at South Carolina
The 34 points South Carolina scored last week against UMass was a season high, 14 points more than its previous high. That outburst raised the Gamecocks from last to second-to-last in scoring offense nationally. With a -13.5 line in favor of Tennessee, we're looking at a projected final somewhere around 33-17, and the Gamecocks have yet to give up more than 28 points in a game. Depending on your line, the under is no worse than 1-5-1 through seven games for the Gamecocks, and the only worry could be mistakes from quarterback Jake Bentley in his first conference appearance.
Last week: 2-3, Season 6-15-1
GREG'S PICKS
A slight setback last week as I failed to capitalize on the previous week's success. I was unable to sustain the success of a strong start last week, but I have a good feeling about the slate this week and hope to get back on the plus side of the ledger. More on that later, let's take a quick look back at last week's games.
The quick start came Thursday when Virginia Tech covered with ease over Miami. A tough loss the next night as I had the under in the Oregon game pegged correctly … until the game went into overtime. Hopefully those kinds of breaks will even out. From there, a bad loss with Minnesota, which barely won, and an easy win with Northwestern, which was in control the entire game. The Alabama game could have gone over, but Texas A&M couldn't get anything going. Iowa was in the mix all day against Wisconsin, but the Badgers pulled away late.
Over 86.5 Texas Tech at TCU
After scoring just 10 points last week at West Virginia, the Red Raiders will be a welcome sight for the Horned Frogs. In case you weren't aware, Texas Tech plays an odd formation on defense, it's a standard 4-3, but no defensive backs. OK, so technically there are live bodies in the defensive back field, but they don't do much. TCU's defense is a little better, but I wouldn't plan on that unit slowing the high-powered Red Raiders offense either.
Purdue (+13.5) vs. Penn State
Purdue isn't very good, let's get that out of the way right now … BUT, the Boilers managed to play well enough last week to cover the number against Nebraska, and that has to count for something, right? Penn State is a good team; I wouldn't classify it as anything better at this point – even with the big win last week. A couple things in play this week; first, Penn State isn't a powerhouse team, like OSU or Michigan — you know, a team that covers big numbers on the road. Second, I highly doubt those kids will be ready for this game. Think about it; only six days removed from what will probably be the biggest win of their careers and now they have to get ready to beat a bottom-dwelling team? I don't think so.
Indiana (-4.5) vs. Maryland
If you've read this article the last few weeks, you know that I'm not sold on the Hoosier resurgence, but this is a pretty good spot for them. This is a game that they need to win to become bowl eligible and this is the type of spot where their perceived improvement should be visible. Maryland is coming off a "big" win against a suddenly pathetic Michigan State team and like Penn State, the Terps likely will have a difficult time getting back up for this game. The Terps win has not nearly as big as Penn State, but still, it was big in their eyes and there should be a letdown.
Clemson (-5) at Florida State
Clemson has often played to its competition this season and that will actually help its cause this week as the Tigers will need to up their game to cover this number. Florida State has been a bit of an enigma all season. The Seminoles have looked great in spots, see the second half of the Ole Miss game, and bad in others, see the entire Louisville game. Clemson is certainly aware of how badly Louisville beat FSU, and the Tigers will want to prove their superiority this week, as well.
Wisconsin (-9.5) vs. Nebraska
After another ho-hum effort last week against Purdue, I'm still not sold on Nebraska. The Huskers are undefeated, but I don't see an impressive win on the schedule. Wisconsin, on the other hand, has a nice win, a neutral-site game against LSU and a couple "good" losses against Ohio State and Michigan. If there were any concerns about the state of mind of the Badgers, they were addressed last week in Iowa City. The Badgers started slowly, but took control in the end. Look for a better effort from the Badgers this week, and a cover.
Michigan State (+24.5) vs. Michigan
I'll be honest, this line is shocking. I know Michigan is one of the best teams in the country and I know the Spartans are on tilt, but 24.5 points? I'll say this, though, if these teams play like they have up to this point in the season, then yes, Michigan is certainly 24.5-points better. But I can't imagine MSU will play as poorly this week as it has over the past month.
Utah (+9.5) vs. Washington
Washington is everybody's darling this season, and while I do like how the Huskies have played, I'm not sure they can cover a number like this on the road – against a solid team. Utah picked up a big win last week against UCLA, and while its defense needs a lot of work, its offense looks as good as ever.
Last Week: 2-4; Season: 11-15
