This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Futures Bets: 2023 College Football Win Totals Wagers for MAC
The 2023 NCAA Football regular season is quickly approaching, and unlike many other conferences in the country, we aren't seeing a lot of change in members either entering, exiting or planning an arrival or departure anytime soon.
In addition, plenty of teams from the Mid-American Conference (MAC) get underway early. In Week Zero, which begins the weekend of Saturday, Aug. 26, the Ohio Bobcats are in action on the road against San Diego State in a nationally-televised game. Then on Thursday, Aug. 31, two teams get their seasons underway, as Kent State plays a 'money' game at UCF of the Big 12, while Western Michigan hosts FCS St. Francis (PA). In Friday action on Sept. 1, Eastern Michigan hosts FCS Howard, while Central Michigan gets a crack at Michigan State on the road, and Miami (OH) travels to Miami (FL) to determine Miami supremacy.
If you're a MAC win total bettor, you won't have to wait until the season gets started, in earnest, on Saturday, Sept. 2, as plenty of teams will already have a game under their belts by then. We'll take a spin around the MAC and give you the tools to make sure you make an educated win total futures play.
College football bettors now have a bevy of payment method options at their disposal. Check out RotoWire's curated list of the best credit card betting sites and top-rated PayPal betting sites. The BetMGM promo code gets new users a $1,000 welcome offer.
Bowling Green Falcons Win Totals (5.5 at FanDuel)
The Falcons posted six victories last season, and Bowling Green made an appearance in the Quick Lane Bowl, falling to New Mexico State as a favorite. Despite the postseason loss, it was a success for head coach Scot Loeffler's bunch, and the team hopes to take another step forward in 2023.
The Falcons landed QB Connor Bazelak in the transfer portal, after he had previous stops with Power 5 schools Missouri and Indiana. His stats might have been marginal in those previous outings, and he was overmatched at IU, but he is a good fit for this program, replacing long-time QB Matt McDonald. He'll have one of the better backs in the MAC, taking pressure off of the pass game, as RB Terion Stewart is a good one. WR Odieu Hiliare also makes life easier for the signal caller.
The defense needs to replace five starters, including key contributors S Jordan Anderson, who transferred out to UCLA, and EDGE Karl Brooks, who is now with the Green Bay Packers. Those are mammoth shoes to fill for new DC Steve Morrison.
For the schedule, trips to Georgia Tech, Liberty and Michigan will likely have the Falcons in a familiar hole, and a visit from East favorite Ohio for the league opener is no bargain, either. The schedule really doesn't lighten up much in October, either, with visits to Buffalo and Miami (Ohio). Bazelak could make this team competitive, but it's conceivable this team could start 2-5 or 1-6. The lean is to go low.
Under 4.5 wins (+116 at FanDuel) represents with the best value, with a flat 5 (-155 at Caesars) providing some insurance, in the event of slight exceeding of expectations.
Bowling Green Win Totals Best Bet
- UNDER 4.5 WINS (+116 at FanDuel)
The FanDuel Ohio bonus code gives new customers access to an offer to 10X their first bet up to $200.
Buffalo Bulls Win Totals (5.5 at BetMGM)
I don't like the schedule for the Bulls, particularly the non-conference slate. Buffalo starts out at Wisconsin, and it also faces Liberty at home and a trip to Louisiana, although the latter is manageable. Buffalo also faces trips to Toledo and Miami (Ohio), facing arguably the two best teams in each division on the road, and it also catches Ohio at home.
The cross-division misses for Buffalo have it miss Western Michigan, who is expected to have a down year, and likely would be a win, while also missing marginal Ball State and Northern Illinois teams. For this level, the schedule is rather loaded for a team which is replacing six starters on the defensive side of the ball.
There are some decent pieces on offense, starting with RBs Ron Cook and Mike Washington, as well as QB Cole Snyder, but getting to seven wins with this schedule is rather challenging. I can see UB sneaking into a bowl at 6-6, but it's hard to find more wins than that.
As far as the markets, you can find Under 7 (-165 at BetRivers), if you want to insure against a possible push. I don't see UB winning seven games, let alone eight, but if you're high on the Bulls, it's good insurance. There is no value playing Under 6 (-110 at Caesars), as six wins is certainly possible. Go in the middle and play Under 6.5 (-120 at DraftKings) for the best sweet spot with UB.
Buffalo Win Totals Best Bet
- UNDER 6.5 WINS (-120 at DraftKings)
College football fans located in New York can check out the best New York sportsbook promos to find the best deals in their area.
Eastern Michigan Eagles Win Totals (5.5 at BetMGM)
As much as I am bearish on Buffalo, mostly due to the strength of schedule, I am bullish on the Eagles. I like Eastern Michigan's schedule almost as much as I hate its gray turf at Rynearson Stadium. Almost.
While EMU does take the short mid-week November jaunt down to Toledo late in the season, the Eagles miss both Miami and Ohio in the cross-division games, and that's huge. Instead, the Eagles will get both projected East doormats Akron and Kent State at home for a pair of likely wins. The non-conference home schedule also features winnable games against FCS Howard and UMass. A trip down to Jacksonville State early in the season could also bear fruit.
However, most of the books have EMU with an Over/Under of 7.5 wins, and that's a bit high. This team lost big downfield threat WR Hassan Beydoun, as well as WR Dylan Drummond. While RB Samson Evans is back to buoy the offense, it must break in a new quarterback, too. The defense has eight started back, but this is a D that coughed up 28.5 points per game in 2022, and it lost arguably its best player in DE Jose Ramirez.
I still like the Eagles to go bowling, and perhaps get to seven wins, but you'll have to pay heavy juice at BetRivers (-167) and/or DraftKings (-170) to get Over 6.5, and that could be bumped up at any minute depending on the action.
Eastern Michigan Win Totals Best Bet
- OVER 6.5 WINS (-167 at BetRivers)
Check out the best Michigan sportsbook promos to find the best offers in the Mitten State.
Miami (OH) Redhawks Win Totals (5.5 at BetMGM)
The Redhawks welcome back QB Brett Gabbert after an injury-plagued 2022 season, and that is good enough reason to like Miami to contend in the East Division with Ohio.
While the Redhawks travel to South Florida to battle the 'other' Miami in the opener, the non-conference schedule isn't terrible. Miami has a trip to UMass, as well as a trip to Cincinnati, but it could catch the rival Bearcats in a down year. It also welcomes FCS Delaware State in a pay game, and a likely win. Miami could negotiate the non-league schedule at 2-2 at worst, and perhaps 3-1, setting itself up for a nice run.
Miami could get off to a quick start in the conference, too, with three winnable games to start against Kent State, Bowling Green and Western Michigan. It has a difficult trip to Ohio on the slate, but it gets to host Toledo in late October, while missing Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan and Northern Illinois in the cross-division schedule.
I can see Miami winning as many as eight games, but getting to seven victories should be easily doable. Most books have Over 6.5 wins for Miami, ranging from -155 (at BetRivers), to as high as -175 (at BetMGM). If you're adventurous, you can also play Over 7 (-125 at Caesars), but you risk a potential push.
Miami (Ohio) Win Totals Best Bet
- OVER 6.5 WINS (-155 at BetRivers)
Northern Illinois Huskies Win Totals (5.5 at BetMGM)
On the surface, seeing NIU with a win total of just 5.5 at most shops seems too tasty to pass up. I mean, QB Rocky Lombardi is fully healthy again, and he has a tremendous downfield threat in WR Trayvon Rudolph. RB Antario Brown is a stud, giving the Huskies an outstanding offense.
But this defense was putrid last season, allowing 395.8 total yards per game, 252.8 passing yards per contest and an unseemly 32.8 PPG. That simply will not do, and it must be a ton better. But will it? Some of the best pieces are gone, as head coach Thomas Hammock must replace productive CB Jordan Gandy, DE Izayah Green-May and LBs Daveren Rayner and Kyle Pugh, the only four defenders who did anything in '22. Ouch.
I also do not like the schedule setup for NIU, as it catches both Ohio and Toledo within two weeks of each other in late September/early October, and that's after an ugly non-conference slate featuring trips to Boston College and Nebraska. There are respites, including FCS Southern Illinois, and winnable games at Akron and home against Western Michigan, but this has the look of a five-win team at best. NIU will be fun for Over results, scoring plenty of points, but it will give up a lot, too.
Most books have NIU at Under 5.5, ranging from +104 (at FanDuel) and +110 (at Caesars, BetMGM). There is a flat Under 6 (-125 at BetRivers), but there is a risk of a push. I like a little insurance, and Under 6.5 (-165 at DraftKings) will cost you a little more, but is the best course of action. No way these Huskies get to seven wins with this brutal schedule.
Northern Illinois Win Totals Best Bet
- UNDER 6.5 WINS (-165 at DraftKings)
Toledo Rockets Win Totals (5.5 at BetMGM)
The Rockets edged EMU for the West Division title last season, winning eight games, including five conference tilts, and Toledo figures to be even better in 2023.
Toledo has 16 starters returning, and that includes versatile QB Dequan Finn, perhaps the best signal-caller in the league. He'll have WRs Devin Maddox and Jerjuan Newton at his disposal, too, and teams will be hard-pressed to stop both. All five starters from the offensive line are back, which is great news for the run game, allowing Finn to dance.
The defense was overlooked, but is one of the best units in the MAC, too, although a handful of key players did depart, including all-conference performers Jamal Hines, Desjuan Johnson and Dyontae Johnson.
Still, Toledo has the potential for a 10-win season, and it wouldn't be shocking to see the Rockets upset Illinois in the season opener. If that happens, expectations will be through the roof. Even if it loses to the Power 5 team, the next three games against FCS Texas Southern and San Jose State, as well as the conference opener against Western Michigan, should all be wins. In fact, the only possible trouble spots on the entire schedule look to be at Illinois (Sept. 6) and at Miami (Oct. 21). All of the other more difficult games are at home.
This team now only should win the West Division, and the MAC, but it could crack the Top 25 rankings this season, and it might be one of those dark horse non-Power 5 contenders. It would be stunning to see Toledo lose three or more games, making Over 8.5 wins a likely shoe-in, and best bet of this entire conference.
Toledo Rockets Win Totals Best Bet
- OVER 8.5 WINS (-115 at BetMGM)
