This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Clemson vs. Kentucky Betting Odds and Best Bets
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A red-hot Clemson team heads to Jacksonville to face Kentucky on Friday. Clemson scuffled in the season's first two months but closed the year strong by winning four straight, covering in each as well. They sit at 8-4 SU overall but just 6-6 ATS, with the over hitting in just five of their games. Kentucky, meanwhile, lost five of their final seven but did rally to beat rival Louisville in their final showing. They sit at 7-5 SU and 6-6 ATS, with their games going over the listed total eight times.
Clemson vs. Kentucky Betting Odds
Spread: Clemson -4 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Total: 44.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Clemson -180 (Caesars Sportsbook); Kentucky +160 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
This spread moved amply once bowl games were announced, with Clemson opening as a seven-point favorite and moved down two points within the first week. It seems to be still trending downward, with a half-point variance as of Thursday afternoon across books. Personally, I think this has to do more with the low point total than the full backing of the Wildcats
The total has seen an almost identical slide in points, opening at 48.5 and trending lower to its current state. DraftKings is the only site with it at 45.0 as of Thursday evening, which likely falls before kickoff.
The moneyline has also moved in accordance with the spread. If you're backing Kentucky, the opportunity was early, as they could have been had as high as +260. Conversely, with things sliding against the Tigers, there's actually a little appeal in this price. They were previously as high as -325 to win outright.
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Clemson vs. Kentucky Betting Picks
Both teams seem interested and have their best players competing, so the prevailing thought is we won't see drastic line movement prior to kickoff. I don't have a great feel for the total here. It's a really low number, which speaks to the talent on defense. But both offenses are capable, and while we're not expecting a back-and-forth shootout, it's very reasonable to expect both sides to score in the 17-20 range, which would make just a game-winning score result in an over. That's my lean.
This game, for me, comes down to quarterback play. Clemson's Cade Klubnik has been uneven, but he seems more trustworthy than Kentucky's Devin Leary. The latter has familiarity facing the Tigers' defense from his days at North Carolina State. While he does have a four-touchdown pass performance against them, he's also had just one touchdown total in two other meetings, never throwing for more than 244 yards. Further, he finished the year with 206 yards or less in eight of his final nine games. Sure, he can make some timely plays, but I believe this makes Kentucky one-dimensional. Both sides boast stout run defenses, but with Clemson focusing solely on RB Ray Davis and forcing Leary to beat them, I think they'll succeed.
Clemson vs. Kentucky Best Bet: Clemson -4.0 (Caesars Sportsbook)
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Clemson vs. Kentucky Predictions
We may need to monitor pregame availability just a touch. Clemson lost WR Beaux Collins to the portal, but could be welcoming back Antonio Williams from injury, which would be a major addition.
It's two very good defenses facing two good rushing attacks, so we're likely looking at which side will take a few risks and if they can connect. I simply don't trust Leary and the Wildcat receivers to make game-changing plays. They were incredibly fortunate in the second half against Louisville. Clemson won't make the same mistakes. The Tigers will key on Davis, find RBs Will Shipley and Phil Mafah in the passing game in addition to powering them forward on the ground, and out-grind the Wildcats.
CLEMSON 27-20.
