College Football Picks: Georgia vs Ole Miss Best Bets
Ole Miss puts their undefeated record on the line Saturday afternoon when it travels to face Georgia between the hedges. The Rebels are 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS, while the total went over in their first three, and under in their last three. Georgia comes in at 5-1 SU but just 2-4 ATS, while the total has alternated over and then under throughout those six games.
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Georgia vs Ole Miss Betting Odds for Week 8
Spread: Georgia -6.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Ole Miss +7.5 (ESPN Bet)
Total: over 56.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Under 57.5 (ESPN Bet)
Moneyline: Georgia -250 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Ole Miss +230 (BetMGM)
This line was available before last week's games and sat at just Georgia (-4.5), but was quickly adjusted to -7.5 by Sunday, following the Rebels' sleepwalking through a game against Washington State. We haven't seen a lot of movement throughout the week, never going higher than this or lower than the -6.5 we're seeing at some sites. It's obviously a key number. If you're looking for a big payday, this Saturday/Sunday line change has bumped Ole Miss from (+180) to its current number. No spoilers for picks below, but Mississippi hasn't won in Georgia since 1996.
The total has been steadily creeping up, opening at 53.5 and has been on the incline ever since.
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Georgia vs Ole Miss Betting Picks for Week 8
We've got some mild uncertainty at quarterback for Ole Miss as Austin Simmons is not on the injury report. The general assumption is that Trinidad Chambliss has played well enough to continue starting, but it's still just an assumption.
I think there's some value in the Rebels on the spread, so long as it's a touchdown or more. It feels like an overreaction to last week's dud, and Georgia hasn't exactly been impressive. I can't overlook Ole Miss' struggles in Athens, however, nor that this is their second road game. This is also a revenge spot for the Bulldogs after losing at Mississippi last year.
That leaves us with the total, and I'm siding with opportunity in its increasing number. We know Ole Miss can score, but they've been held to 24 points in each of the last two. UGA is allowing 17.0 ppg, Ole Miss 19.2 ppg. Against similar defenses, Georgia scored 21 on Alabama and 20 at Auburn. The implied final here is 31.8 - 24.8, and I don't see anything that suggests Georgia will score in the 30s, and they haven't given up more than 24 at home all season. See if this number continues to climb.
Georgia vs Ole Miss Expert Pick: Under 57.5 points, ESPN Bet)
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Georgia vs Mississippi Predictions for Week 8
I think there's a very real chance we see both Chambliss and Simmons play for Mississippi; either because Lane Kiffin will package them on drives together to attempt catching Georgia off guard, or because Chambliss starts, struggles, and Simmons is called upon to rally his team.
Both teams feature top 60 pass defenses, but Georgia is 17th against the run, allowing 2.9 ypc and 91.2 ypg. This is where the Bulldogs can attack the Rebels, who rank 96th against the run, allowing 4.8 ypc and 157.7 ypg. Georgia was completely bottled up on the ground at Auburn last week. I look for them to try and re-establish dominance up front, keep possession, and frustrate the Rebels' offense while keeping them sidelined. Chauncey Bowens was limited by a calf injury last week, but Georgia has plenty of depth with Josh McCray and Nate Frazier, while Gunner Stockton is a willing runner, too. Mississippi won't abandon the run, as Kewan Lacy has at least 16 carries in every game, helping keep the clock running.
The script in the SEC has largely been dominated by defense and low-scoring, one-possession games. A lot of them are coming with totals in the mid-40s. This one's elevated, and it's scary to go against an offense with as much explosive potential as Mississippi, but that's the play. Last year's game finished 28-10. We'll see a little more, but not a lot.
Final Score: Georgia 28 - Ole Miss 24
Georgia vs Ole Miss Player Prop Picks for Saturday, October 18
Weekly caveat for this new portion of the column: I live in Virginia, where we can't directly bet college player props. I'm blending some options between our College Football Picks and Props page, and what I can see at Underdog. It's not a market I routinely dabble in. Because of a lack of clarity on the Rebels' QB situation, and potentially the Bulldogs' backfield, there aren't a lot of prop options available as of Friday afternoon.
De'Zhaun Stribling, Mississippi - Under 24.5 yards receiving (Underdog)
You could argue Stribling is ascending off his 6-63 line last week, both season highs. But he went 1-9 against Kentucky, 2-6 against Arkansas, and 2-4 against LSU, seeing two, three, and three targets. His catch prop is 2.5, juiced to the under, and he's averaging 8.4 ypc.
Zachariah Branch, Georgia - Under 19.5 longest reception (Underdog)
Branch has cleared this in three of six, but one was against depleted Marshall in the opener and one against Tennessee in a shootout. Ole Miss is allowing 5.8 ypa and only 10 pass completions of 20+ yards. Branch remains a small slot option who Georgia gets the ball to in space, not downfield. Yes, he's capable of turning a screen into 20 yards, but he's more volume than stretch.
