College Football Picks: Iowa State vs. Kansas State
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The Iowa State Cyclones and Kansas State Wildcats clash to open the 2025 College Football regular season Saturday. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, and the game can be viewed or streamed on ESPN.
Iowa State leads the all-time series 54-50-2, with the Cyclones winning the past two matchups. That includes a 29-21 win in Ames last season on Nov. 30, while posting a 42-35 victory in Manhattan on Nov. 23, 2023, in the previous meeting. The last win by K-State was a 10-9 nail-biter at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames on Oct. 8, 2022, the only win by the Wildcats in the past five in the series.
The Cyclones have scored 29 or more points in each of the four victories in that five-game span, while the Wildcats have scored 21 or fewer points in four of the past five in the series.
Iowa State vs. Kansas State Betting Odds for Week 0
Spread: Iowa State +3.5 (-120 at FanDuel Sportsbook); Kansas State -3 (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Total: Over 50.5 (-115 at ESPN Bet); Under 51.5 (-115 at ESPN Bet Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Iowa State +140 (Caesars Sportsbook); Kansas State -160 (BetMGM)
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Iowa State vs. Kansas State Betting Picks for Week 0
Both of these Big 12 teams enter the season with great expectations, carrying a preseason ranking in The Associated Press' Top 25. Iowa State heads into the Aer Lingus Classic ranked No. 22 in the nation, while Kansas State enters at No. 17.
Iowa State heads overseas for the first time in school history, and the stakes for this "Farmageddon" matchup against Kansas State couldn't be any higher. Each of these teams has designs on playing in the Big 12 Championship game in December, and an early-season conference loss would be devastating for either side.
The Wildcats are playing out of the country for the second time in institution history, as they appeared at the Tokyo Dome in 1992, falling to Nebraska.
Expectations are high for both sides, mainly due to the experience factor under center. Iowa State QB Rocco Becht is back to lead his offense, while dual-threat QB Avery Johnson leads his respective team.
Becht completed 59.4 percent of his passes in 2024, compiling 3,505 yards, 25 touchdowns and nine interceptions, and he was sacked 15 times.
Johnson had a 58.3 percent completion percentage last season, going for 2,712 passing yards, 25 TDs and 10 INTs, while he was sacked on 13 occasions. In addition, Johnson has the run factor, going for 605 yards on the ground, averaging 6.4 yards per carry, and he found the end zone seven times in that manner. He will be even more important in the run game, as DJ Giddens has moved on, and is now cashing paychecks in the NFL.
The good news for the Wildcats is that they have a veteran-laden offensive line, and the running back cupboard is certainly not bare. RB Dylan Edwards returns, and he piled up 546 yards and five scores, while galloping for 7.4 yards per tote in 2024.
K-State is a couple of years removed from Ben Sinnott at tight end, but head coach Chris Klieman has a talented pair with TEs Garrett Oakley and Will Swanson. Look for those two to see plenty of targets in Dublin.
Iowa State lost some big-time receivers, so that's the biggest question for it. Will Becht be able to gel quickly with the new starters, with WRs Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel gone? The offense could be a little more run-heavy to start, with talented returnee RBs Carson Hansen and Abu Sama III in the backfield behind a strong offensive line.
While Iowa State has dominated this series in recent seasons, Kansas State seems to have fewer questions on offense, and the versatility of Johnson is an added plus.
Iowa State vs. Kansas State Expert Pick: Kansas State -3 (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)
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Iowa State vs. Kansas State Predictions for Week 0
As far as the total is concerned, we have two experienced quarterbacks, and that could mean plenty of points.
While, yes, Iowa State has some turnover at the receiver positions, Becht is an experienced signal caller who has had all summer to learn the quirks and tendencies of his new starting wideouts.
Kansas State has the dynamic Johnson, who can not only be effective in the red-zone with his arm, but also with his feet. He figures to take another step forward in 2025.
The Cyclones got off to fast starts on offense last season, crushing the first-quarter total for Over results in seven of the final eight games, and it high on its point total in the first half in five of the final six.
On the flip side, the Wildcats cashed high on their first-half point total in five of the final six games of 2024.
In the past three games in Ireland, we have seen 59, 45 and 45 points scored, with 50 or fewer points in four of the past five games since Aug. 30, 2014. The lean here, though, is to go slightly Over, in a 27-24 kind of game, but go very, very lightly.
