This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Mississippi vs. Georgia Betting Odds and Best Bets
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The undefeated Bulldogs welcome Ole Miss between the hedges for a Saturday night affair. Despite their clean, winning record, Georgia has not been a covering machine, sitting at just 2-6-1 ATS, though you can argue some of that has to do with the huge spreads they've been assigned, as their average margin of victory has been 23.9 points per game. Their games have gone over the mark five times. Mississippi is off a hard-fought win over Texas A&M, where they blew a double-digit fourth-quarter lead before rallying for a push. They sit at 8-1 SU, falling to just Alabama while going 6-2-1 ATS. The over has cashed in just four of their nine outings.
Mississippi vs. Georgia Betting Odds for Week 11
Spread: Georgia -10.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: 58.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Georgia -420 (Caesars Sportsbook); Mississippi +350 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Currently, Caesars Sportsbook is the popular place for odds on this game, offering the best moneyline for the Bulldogs, the best odds for them to cover, and the lowest game total. But as always, we're splitting hairs,, as the differences are fractional. And with UGA more heavily juiced elsewhere, if you're backing Ole Miss, the moneyline odds are notably better at other spots as of Thursday afternoon.
We've seen substantial line movement in this contest. Preseason betting had this as high as -19.5 for the Bulldogs. It dropped to a massive 7.5 points once it came online this week and continues to slide to its current number. It seems difficult to think it will continue this trend and get below ten points, but it's worth waiting to see any additional fluctuation if you're backing the Dawgs.
The total opened at 59.5, dropped as low as 57.5, and is trending back upward. Caesars is the only spot currently with a 58.0, with 58.5 being universal everywhere else.
Mississippi vs. Georgia Betting Picks for Week 11
It's crazy to consider in a game with nearly a 60-point total, but the top storyline for me is defense. Georgia hasn't allowed more than 21 points all season, though four of six league opponents have gotten to at least 20. Ole Miss' offense has averaged 38.8 ppg and has gotten at least 27 in every league game except their lone loss to 'Bama, where they mustered just 10.
Conversely, the Rebels defense has been inconsistent. They allowed 48 to LSU and 35 last week to an otherwise struggling Aggies attack but are giving up just 22.8 ppg overall. Georgia hasn't seemed to be clicking on all cylinders until recently, but their point production hasn't suffered. They average 39.3 ppg, have scored at least 24 in every conference game and are surging.
I'm personally not considering the total here. It stands to reason if Mississippi is competitive, it will be a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair. If Georgia prevails, it can go either way, either scoring in bunches or beating Ole Miss physically up front and keeping the Rebels offense sidelined.
So that leaves the spread, and I just can't get there with the Rebels. I think Georgia's defense will be ready for whatever Lane Kiffin schemes up, and Ole Miss' defense won't get enough stops to keep this competitive for four quarters.
Mississippi vs. Georgia Best Bet: Georgia (-10.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook
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Mississippi vs. Georgia Predictions for Week 11
Georgia's defense seems to be able to play however they want. They are stout against the run, and the secondary can pick its poison. Over the first four weeks, they were opportunistic, intercepting seven balls. Over the last five weeks, they've kept things in front of them and not been deep, picking off only four balls but allowing just 15.8 completions per game.
I like what the Rebels have done; Tre Harris has been a phenomenal addition to the offense that already had juice. But I don't trust their defense to go into Sanford Stadium at night and be overly competitive. Georgia won't immediately blow them out but will limit the Rebels' trickery, get a key turnover in the second half and stretch this out. Georgia 34-20.
