This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Cotton Bowl Picks: Ohio State vs. Texas
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The College Football Playoff kicks back into high gear with the two semifinal matches. Notre Dame punched its ticket to the Championship thanks to a last-second field goal to outlast Penn State. The Texas Longhorns (13-2) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (12-2) will now converge in Arlington to decide who the Fighting Irish will play in Atlanta. After a decisive win over Clemson, Texas barely got past Arizona State in the CFP Semifinal. A questionable targeting call went Texas' way, which all but sealed the outcome. Conversely, the Buckeyes sent top-seed Oregon packing with a convincing 20-point victory.
Ohio State vs. Texas Betting Odds for Cotton Bowl
Spread: Ohio State -5.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Texas +6 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: Over 51.5 (FanDuel Sportbook), Under 52.5 (ESPN Bet)
Moneyline: Oho State -238 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Texas +215 (Caesars Sportsbook)
We're seeing different spreads varying between 5.5 and 6 points on either side, and I predict late money may fall Texas' way, bringing the books down to 5.5 or even five points. The moneyline and O/U total have been relatively static throughout the week.
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Ohio State vs. Texas Betting Picks for Cotton Bowl
There's no question that momentum is on Ohio State's side entering this matchup. The Buckeyes have saved their best performances for the end of the season, and if the offense is dialed in, they look practically unstoppable.
According to several metrics, the semifinal game features the best two defenses in the country. These numbers can be deceptive when you measure strength of schedule alongside the stats, however. The Longhorns enjoyed a pretty safe walk through the SEC during their first season in the conference, while the Buckeyes faced a string of tough opponents in a surprisingly strong Big 10 field. I am noticing that many pundits are looking at Ohio State's terrible showing against Michigan as some defining metric for this semifinal outcome, but I'm not on that bandwagon.
The logic is that Michigan's defense is on par with Texas, but I would contend that Michigan's D improved dramatically as the team gained more confidence. This brings us back to the quality of Texas' opponents. Will Howard have the luxury of throwing to the best wideout tandem in the country? Although Texas' secondary is strong, have they faced wideouts like Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka? One could argue that Clemson's wideout crew ranks up there, but overall, one has to question the veracity of Texas' pass-defense ranking.
Then, there's the question of Texas' offensive attack. Quinn Ewers probably doesn't get enough credit for his performance this season. He's a very good quarterback, and he's handled injuries and Arch Manning's shadow quite well. He's accurate and also has quality pass-catchers at his disposal, but last week's game against Arizona State showed how a lesser, highly motivated opponent can wreak havoc on their offensive game plan. Steve Sarkisian had to find another way to win last week, as the running game was limited to 53 total yards. You can bet that OSU DC Jim Knowles has watched the tape to see how the Sun Devils did it. Knowles is also notorious for making adjustments at halftime that have stymied opponents in the second half.
The Buckeyes are also ranked second in the country in Opponent Red Zone Scoring Percentage, which is bad news for a Texas team that has recently struggled to hit paydirt inside the 20. Against more formidable opponents, the Buckeyes rank #1 in almost every major defensive category, and I think it counts for more, considering the team's difficult schedule. Ohio State's defensive front will be able to pressure Ewers and simulate pressure, forcing Ewers into spots where he might miss the coverage. The offenses make an interesting case for the Over, but I am taking the Buckeyes to win this by more than a touchdown.
Ohio State vs. Texas Expert Pick: Ohio State -6 (Caesars Sportsbook)
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Ohio State vs. Texas Predictions for Cotton Bowl
If Will Howard can replicate his recent play, the Longhorns could have a long day ahead of them. The Buckeyes can get clever by using Jeremiah Smith as a decoy and instead dump it off to Egbuka or Carnell Tate, who would be the marquee starter with another team. Ohio State also has two very talented backs in Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, but it's Henderson that the Longhorns need to look out for. Texas' offense will need to strike early, but I predict a wrinkle if they end up down by multiple scores early. Texas may elect to send out Arch Manning to provide a spark, and the change in dynamic might be a tough adjustment to make for Knowles and the defense. Still, the Buckeyes' defense has been able to contend with whatever opponents have thrown at them, and they are stout enough to give the offense plenty of scoring opportunities.
Ohio State 34-21
