Oregon vs Texas Tech Best Bets for the Orange Bowl
No. 5 Oregon meets No.4 Texas Tech in the first of three playoff quarterfinal games Saturday at noon est from Miami, FL. The Ducks are fresh off smashing James Madison in the first round, though the game was statistically close. They're 12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS, while the over has hit seven times. Texas Tech has had a lengthy break, something we saw impact all four top seeds in last year's playoff. They sit at 12-1 SU, and equal and impressive 12-1 ATS, while the over has hit just five times. We've got you covered with our favorite picks, predictions and best bets below.
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Oregon vs Texas Tech Betting Odds for the Orange Bowl
Spread: Oregon -2.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Texas Tech +2.5 (BetMGM)
Total: Over 50.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Under 50.5 (BetMGM)
Moneyline: Oregon -134 (Caesars Sportsbook); Texas Tech +114 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Not a lot of line movement here, at all. Oregon opened at (-1.5), and it's ticked up a point. Obviously, that has moved the moneyline, where both teams began with minus odds. This seems to be the trend with all playoff games. The teams are fully intact, they are known commodities, and everyone has their opinions on them.
The total has moved down one point from open, so again, not much shaking. You'd want to believe Texas Tech's incredible against-the-spread record was a matter of folks doubting them all season. But they've been an underdog just once (winning handily at Utah), and they've covered 10 times as double-digit favorites.
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Oregon vs Texas Tech Betting Picks for the Orange Bowl
This is a really, really tough game to find any edge in. I could bore you with top 10, top 30 stats in almost all categories, but it's frivolous. This is the playoff, so of course, these teams have elite stats; it's why they are here. I'll just say I'm not touching the total. Two elite defenses against explosive offenses; it could sail over in three quarters, or it could be a slug fest where the defenses dominate, and neither side wants to make the game-changing mistake.
The one area where I'm giving Oregon a bigger advantage at is under center. While neither Dante Moore nor Behren Morton has big-game experience, this feels like a spot where Moore has to prove he's worth the clout he's receiving as a possible No. 1 overall draft pick this spring. You can't run on Texas Tech at all. They're allowing 2.3 ypc, six rushing scores all season, and only three opponents have topped 100 yards against them. That will put the game on Moore's shoulders.
On the other side, Morton still isn't fully healthy, stating during the week he's thankful for the bye and "probably 80-85 percent" in his recovery from a hairline fracture in his right fibula. It's worth noting that he didn't play in the Red Raiders' only loss, but he didn't look great against BYU in the Big 12 Championship game.
This is as narrow a pick as I've had all year. I'll detail more concerns below. But I'm rolling with the Ducks until I again see it from Texas Tech. This line sits at 2.5 universally, but so long as it's not north of a field goal, and with minimal confidence...
Oregon vs Texas Tech Orange Bowl Expert Pick: Oregon -2.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Oregon vs Texas Tech Predictions for the Orange Bowl
So, about those concerns. If we're assuming the onus is on Moore to move the Ducks' offense, he'll have ample opportunities to make mistakes. He's thrown eight INTs on the year, two of which came last week against JMU, and two in their only loss to Indiana. We know the Red Raiders can get after the quarterback and pressure Moore into mistakes, and they have 16 interceptions on the season. Morton, on the other hand, has only four picks.
Oregon's run defense has been a bit leaky, allowing 340 yards over the last two weeks. I feel like I'm talking myself out of Oregon and on the Texas Tech side. My heart really wants to pick the Red Raiders, and I have no rooting interest. I also don't have the guts to do it. This should be an incredible, back-and-forth matchup where I'll back Moore and his bevy of skill players, all back at full health, to deliver a game-winning drive at the end.
Oregon 28 - Texas Tech 24
Oregon vs Texas Tech Player Props for the Orange Bowl
Dante Moore, QB, Oregon - Over 232.5 passing yards (DraftKings); Over 1.5 Touchdowns
These are probably my favorite plays of this game. Moore has hit this in four straight and simply has to produce a number bigger than this for the Ducks to win, and will have ample attempts if they don't. It does look like it's a rising number, as I saw some 228.5 earlier in the week while prewriting. It won't get that high, but I'm comfortable at anything under 250.
Noah Whittington, RB, Oregon - Under 62.5 rushing yards (DraftKings)
Correlated play that you can use with Moore on sites like Underdog (where it sits at 61.5). Again, you can't run on Texas Tech. Whittington is a touch undersized and only saw five carries against Indiana when the Ducks' run game was stuffed. He could double those carries and would need to average 6.0 ypc to flirt with this number.
Cameron Dickey, RB, Texas Tech - Over 69.5 rushing yards (Sleeper)
This is sitting at 72.5 on most other sites, and that does get a bit dicey, but roll with it if you're in need of picks on both sides. As noted above, Oregon has been a bit susceptible to the run of late. Dickey is a lock for volume, unlike Whittington, carrying at least 11 times in six straight, three times going 18+. It seems prudent for the Red Raiders to pound him as often as possible and try to keep the Ducks' offense sidelined.
