This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Penn State vs. Ohio State Best Bets
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Penn State vs. Ohio State Betting Odds for Week 8
Spread: Penn State +4.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook); Ohio State -4.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Total: 45.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Penn State +164 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Ohio State -180 (Caesars Sportsbook)
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The Penn State Nittany Lions and Ohio State Buckeyes will unclog a logjam at the top of the Big Ten East Division standings. In this battle of top-7 teams, someone is going to take an L, but it might not disqualify either side from the College Football Playoffs or Big Ten Championship Game, depending on the margin of defeat.
Penn State has rolled up six victories with six covers, including three victories inside the conference. However, wins over Illinois, Iowa, and Northwestern are not exactly a murderer's row inside this conference, and Ohio State easily represents its biggest test of the season.
Ohio State has been involved in a marquee game already, pulling out a 17-14 win on the last second at Notre Dame back on Sept. 23. The Buckeyes also took care of a very good Maryland team by a 37-17 score and the Buckeyes have covered back-to-back games for the first time this season, while going 3-1 ATS in the past four outings. Ohio State is also 2-1 ATS in three games at 'The Shoe', including 2-0 ATS against FBS opponents.
After a slow start, QB Kyle McCord and the passing game have come alive, and he has completed 64.1% of his passes for 1,651 yards, 11 TDs and just one INT. His biggest weapon, WR Marvin Harrison Jr., has been everything as advertised. The future first-round pick has 31 grabs for 604 yards and 5 TD, while averaging 19.5 yards per reception. TE Cade Stover has picked up the pace, too, posting 359 yards and 3 TDs, and WR Emeka Egbuka is a threat in the short to intermediate game.
It isn't all about the passing game, though, as RB TreVeyon Henderson has 295 yards and 6.7 yards per attempt with 5 TD, and RB Chip Trayanum is the bowling ball in short-yardage situations and the hero from the Irish game.
For Penn State, QB Drew Allar has completed 65.2% of his passes for 1,254 yards, 12 TDs and no INTs, and his biggest downfield weapon is WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith with his 31 receptions, 402 yards and 3 TDs. And RBs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton have combined for nine rushing scores, so the Buckeyes defense will have its hands full.
Penn State vs. Ohio State Betting Picks for Week 8
The Buckeyes have dominated the Nittany Lions lately, winning six straight in the series and 10 of the past 11 overall dating back to Oct. 2012. That includes a 44-31 win in State College last season. The Buckeyes have scored 27 or more points in each of the past six meetings, with wins by nine or more points in four in a row.
The last time these teams played at Ohio Stadium, we had a 33-24 score in favor of the Buckeyes, while Ohio State posted a 28-17 win in Nov. 2019. The Nittany Lions have dropped the past five trips to Columbus, last winning at 'The Shoe' on Nov. 19, 2011, a 20-14 victory.
Neither of these teams has really faced a daunting schedule, but Penn State's toughest game to date is a home game against a mediocre West Virginia team or perhaps a battle against Iowa. Both of those games were at home, however, and the Nittany Lions have been on the road against Illinois and Northwestern, which aren't huge tests.
Ohio State has that Notre Dame experience to tap into, and it was tested for three quarters against a solid Maryland team at home before pulling away. I think the number is actually a little on the low side. I don't believe Ohio State blows out Penn State, but it gets the job done by at least a touchdown.
Penn State vs. Ohio State Expert Pick: Ohio State -4.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)
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Penn State vs. Ohio State Predictions for Week 8
As far as the defense is concerned, Ohio State has a lot of it. The Buckeyes are allowing just 263.5 total yards per game to rank No. 7 in the nation while limiting teams to just 154.3 yards per game through the air, checking in No. 4 in the country. Allar should put a dent in those numbers a little bit, although a formidable Maryland QB, Taulia Tagovailoa, was unable to rack up big numbers while being coaxed into two turnovers.
Penn State's defense is filthy, too, including shutouts against Iowa and UMass. The Nittany Lions are No. 1 in the country in total yards allowed (193.7) and passing yards allowed (123.8) per game while yielding just 69.8 rushing yards per game and 8.0 PPG. Ohio State should be able to do a little better than that, but they won't run up and down the field, either.
This has the feel of a 20-13 kind of game in the noon window on Saturday. It was actually surprising to see totals offered in the mid-40s. For single-game parlay players, playing Ohio State, laying the points while going low on the total is the way to go in this Big Ten East showdown.
