Salute to Veterans Bowl: Troy vs. Jacksonville State Best Bets
What do you get when you lose in your Group of Five conference's title game? Well, you get a chance to play in Montgomery, Alabama, on a Tuesday in the middle of December. Now, both Troy and Jacksonville State are Alabama schools, so that makes all the sense in the world. The Trojans lost, as expected, to Jameson Madison, while the Gamecocks were upset by upstart Kennesaw State. I would call these two "solid" Group of Five squads, but the world of bowl season in modern college football is always interesting to navigate. Navigate I shall, though, to the best of my abilities.
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Salute to Veterans Bowl: Troy vs. Jacksonville State Betting Odds
Spread: Jacksonville State -1.5 (Caesars Sportsbook), Troy +1.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 49.0 (Caesars Sportsbook); Under 49.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Jackonsvill State -112 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Troy +100 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Not every bowl game has a line this close. We have here, in essence, a toss-up at a neutral site. That makes sense, and it also makes it so that your pick here mostly comes down to which team you think is going to win. So, which team do I think is going to win?
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Salute to Veterans Bowl Troy vs. Jacksonville State Betting Picks
Both of these teams are 8-5, and weirdly, Troy's status as a favorite may come down to losing to a better opponent in its conference's title game. "Of cours,e Troy lost to James Madison, but it made things tough," one might say. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks lost to an Owls team in its second year as an FBS team, and a lot of people probably have no sense of the Owls as a program. All told, though, these teams are evenly matched based on results and play. Troy ranks 87th in SP+, while Jacksonville State ranks 91st+. Notably, Troy has a lot of mediocrity, while Jacksonville State ranks poorly in defense and special teams, but ranks 61st offensively.
However, there are a couple of reasons why I am leaning toward the Gamecocks here. One, it took them a second to figure out the offensive plan. The key was to stick with Rich Rodriguez's run-first, run-second offense even though RichRod left for West Virginia prior to this season. To make that happen, Caden Creel took over as quarterback, and Cam Cook became the focal point of the offense. Cook was one of the best running backs in college football this season. He has 1,666 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns through 13 games. Cook never ran for fewer than 75 yards in a game, and he was over 100 total yards in every game, thanks to receiving yards. Only twice did he not find the end zone as well. Creel took over as quarterback in the Gamecocks' fifth game. While he only threw for eight touchdowns against four picks, he ran for 997 yards and six touchdowns.
Also, crucially, Jacksonville State seems to have managed to keep the key pieces out of the transfer portal, at least for now. Troy wasn't so lucky. Tae Meadows, the team's lead running back, is in the portal and thus unlikely to play in this one.
The Creel-and-Cook-centric offense of the Gamecocks makes the team better than the overall numbers indicate, and the lack of Meadows for the Trojans makes them less impressive than they were during the regular season. Those two facts, combined with this being a toss-up of a bowl game, have me going Gamecocks.
Salute to Veterans Bowl Troy vs. Jacksonville State Best Bet: Jacksonville State -1.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)
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Salute to Veterans Bowl: Troy vs. Jacksonville State Betting Predictions
Jacksonville State is going to run the ball. Then, it is going to run the ball. After that, it'll run the ball once more. Creel and Cook will pace the offense, and Troy allowed 182.3 rushing yards per game. The Trojans are better against the pass than the run, but this matchup is not ideal for that. Now, Troy got to 8-5 with a spot in the Sun Belt title game with a bad run offense, so the loss of Meadows won't obliterate the offensive plan. The thing is, Troy also only averaged 215.4 passing yards per contest. Troy's path to a win is through defense and special teams. Betting on special teams is dicey, and Cook has run all over better defenses.
Jacksonville State 23, Troy 20
Salute to Veterans Player Props for Tuesday, December 16
Deondre Johnson, WR, Jacksonville State – Anytime TD (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Johnson is +320 to score a touchdown. I know I said that the Gamecocks' offense is built around Creel and Cook, and that's true. However, when a pass is necessary, or being used to catch the defense off guard, it tends to go to Johnson, and it tends to be a big play. The redshirt sophomore wasn't part of the offense early in the season. Then, over JSU's has six games he had 19 catches for 550 yards and six touchdowns. At +320, I'll take a shot on Johnson. After all, it's a bowl game. The Gamecocks can get a little loose.
Cam Cook, RB, Jacksonville State – Over 107.5 rushing yards (FanDuel Sportsbook)
I was essentially going to take the over on Cook at almost any number. Nine times this season, Cook had over 107.5 rushing yards, and one time he had 105 rushing yards. If the Gamecocks are serious about winning, and Cook is serious about playing, he'll pass this number with no problem.
