Start vs. Sit: Who to Play, Who to Bench Week 7

We're a little short on ranked matchups in Week 7 with [looks at schedule] oh wow ... zero games featuring two ranked squads. Sheesh. Still, we have some pivotal matchups like a potential Mountain West championship preview between San Diego State and Boise State, along with a Texas Tech-West Virginia showdown that is peak Big 12. We also get to see what the heck Iowa State actually is after the Cyclones pulled off one of the more stunning upsets in recent memory.

PLAYERS TO START

AAC

Dontrell Hilliard, RB, Tulane (at Florida International): Hilliard is the workhorse in one of the most run-heavy offenses in the nation. The Green Wave keeps it on the ground 75.9 percent of the time, fifth highest in FBS and more than noted option team New Mexico. Hilliard's coming off an almost unrepeatable performance Saturday when he thrashed Tulsa for 175 yards and four touchdowns. While the touchdown production is tough to replicate, Hilliard's outing Saturday wasn't a fluke as it was his third consecutive 100-yard game – one of which came against Oklahoma. Hilliard should at least be able to keep his 100-yard streak alive against an FIU defense that ranks 111th in defense per S&P+ and 80th in rushing yards allowed per game. (Also, Zach Abey is a top-three quarterback for me this week. Automatic start.)

ACC

Cam Akers, RB, Florida State (at Duke): Yeah, yeah, yeah, Duke lets up just 88.0 rushing yards per game. The Blue Devils held Miami to less than 4.0 yards per carry and totally shut down Northwestern's Justin Jackson. That said, Akers just posted his first career 100-yard game against a Miami defense that might be tougher than Duke's. A breakout is coming for Akers, who broke 11 tackles and averaged 6.55 yards after contact against the Hurricanes – according to Pro Football Focus and has runs with bad intentions every time he gets the ball. If he gets even 15 carries against Duke, it'll be enough for Akers to formally introduce himself to the college football world.

BIG 12

Trey Sermon, RB, Oklahoma (vs. Texas): The Red River Rivalry is a personal favorite every single year, where two teams and two fan bases who genuinely dislike each other get together to eat Deep Fried Chicken Noodle Soup on a Stick (I'm serious) at the Texas State Fair. But seriously, this game is always bonkers and often brings out the best in both teams. Sermon could be the next player to truly make a name for himself in this storied rivalry. He averages 6.1 YPC as the Sooners' leading rusher and ranks first among Big 12 backs in Pro Football Focus' Elusive Ratingas a true freshman! Texas has been tough against the run, but Sermon is a problem for any defense. I also see a Darius Anderson bounce-back, for what it's worth.

BIG TEN

D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland (vs. Northwestern): Maryland being on its third-string quarterback (at best) heading into Saturday is a bit concerning, but this game looks a lot different on its surface than what the Terrapins were up against a week ago in Columbus. Northwestern is in the bottom third of the FBS in pass defense, and Moore is simply too talented to be shut down by the Wildcats. Moore has nearly twice as many targets (50) as Taivon Jacobs, who is Maryland's No. 2 option in the passing game. Look for Moore to see plenty of volume Saturday, and his breakaway ability could be on full display as well.

CONFERENCE USA

Jeremy Cox, RB, Old Dominion (at Marshall): Marshall has one of the better run defenses in Conference USA, but that's a fairly low bar to clear. Cox isn't quite matchup-proof, but he showed what he's capable of against C-USA competition Saturday by shredding FAU's defense for 202 yards and two scores. As long as Ray Lawry is out, Cox is the bell cow for the ODU backfield and should see a ton of work Saturday as the Monarchs look to control the tempo and win the possession battle.

MAC

Diontae Johnson, WR, Toledo (at Central Michigan): Cody Thompson likely being done for the season is a huge bummer, but Johnson's ascension could be the silver lining for the Rockets. Johnson has five touchdowns on 28 receptions, and his catch rate of 84 percent (28/33 TAR) is superb. He was held out of the end zone last weekend, but he still managed to pull in a season-high eight receptions after Thompson suffered a leg injury. Jon'Vea Johnson is still a featured part of this offense, but Diontae Johnson brings a speedy and sure-handed element that makes him a suitable replacement for the injured Thompson.

MOUNTAIN WEST

Kelton Moore, RB, Nevada (at Colorado State): Moore had a breakout performance against Hawaii after starter Jaxson Kincaide (knee) suffered an injury. He responded by taking 19 carries for 216 yards to help deliver Nevada its first win of the season. It's fair to wonder whether carries will skew back to Kincaide if he's healthy Saturday, but it's also fair to wonder why Nevada would go away from Moore if he's running like this. Moore (5-foot-10, 220) is a much bigger back than Kincaide, which should serve him well against Colorado State's front. He'll certainly have a tough time replicating his Week 6 numbers on the Rams, but Moore and his physical running style should see plenty of work against Colorado State.

PAC-12

Khalil Tate, QB, Arizona (vs. UCLA): So ... last week was something, huh? Tate comes in off the bench and shredded Colorado for 327 yards and four scores on 14 carries. He had 86 rushing yards coming into Saturday and now he leads the team in that category. He'll be going against UCLA this week. While numbers back this up as well, I've watched more UCLA than any Pac-12 team this year and the Bruins cannot stop the run to save their life. Tate is going to be a nightmare for the Bruins to stop, even if their game plan is centered on slowing him down. (Also, this Hunter Johnson fellow on Washington is pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty good.)

SEC

Damien Harris, RB, Alabama (vs. Arkansas): Generally it's against my credo to pick between Bama running backs, but Harris deserves major recognition. Bo Scarbrough gets most of the pub for looking like a Madden Create-A-Player; however, Harris has seven touchdowns compared to Scarbrough's four (on six less carries) and he averages nearly twice as many yards per carry as Scarbrough (8.47 to 4.52). That split widens when you look at SEC splits: Harris: 10.36 YPC against SEC. Scarbrough: 4.75 YPC against SEC. Oh, and Harris gets to go against Arkansas, which is allowing 5.69 YPC to SEC competition this year. Harris is about to go off and might only need 10 carries to do it. Look out.

SUN BELT

Trey Ragas, RB, Louisiana-Lafayette (vs. Texas State): Ragas (5-11, 227) doesn't have the most explosive numbers in the world, but, my goodness, is he consistent. He's had double-digit carries in each of his last four games and has rushed for at least 78 yards and a score in each. This week he squares off against a Texas State run defense that has already let in 10 rushing touchdowns and will have a hard time slowing down the physical Ragas. Also, Texas State ranks 107th in team defense per S&P+. You know what to do.

PLAYERS TO SIT

AAC

Thomas Sirk, QB, East Carolina (at Central Florida): The Pirates are one of the nation's most pass-happy teams in the nation, checking in just behind Texas Tech with a 55.3/44.7 Pass/Run split. On the other side of the coin, UCF isn't particularly well known for its defense, but maybe that should change. The Golden Knights rank in the top-10 against the run in terms of yardage allowed and the secondary has been opportunistic, picking off seven passes while allowing a mere four touchdowns. Sirk is generally a startable commodity thanks to volume and a quality supporting cast, but Central Florida might be too tough a challenge the way things are going right now. This game could get ugly, and even if Sirk throws a ton of passes, expect a low YPA and an increased chance at throwing multiple interceptions

ACC

Daniel Jones, QB, Duke (vs. Florida State): Jones had the look of an excellent fantasy quarterback earlier in the season, completing a high percentage of his passes, limiting his mistakes, and adding some rushing touchdowns. Fast forward to now and Jones looks almost droppable. He hasn't run for a score since Week 2 and has completed just 45 percent of his passes with two scores and three picks his last three weeks. The Noles may be down this year, but they still have a remarkably talented and disciplined defense that should give Jones fits Saturday.

BIG 12

Kenny Hill, QB, TCU (at Kansas State): Hill and Co. just survived a slugfest with West Virginia and, while the record and ranking may not suggest it, this is another tough matchup Saturday in The Little Apple. K-State has pretty middling numbers across the board in terms of pass defense, but that's not my main concern. It's Hill. His home/road splits this season are extreme (even if it's a small sample):

If your bench is deep enough, I'd swap Hill out for another option instead of starting him on the road in a tough environment after an exhausting win.

BIG TEN

Stanley Morgan Jr., WR, Nebraska (vs. Ohio State): In a surprising turn, Morgan is actually the Big Ten's most productive receiver as the season reaches the halfway point, catching 30 passes for 510 yards in just five games. He's far and away quarterback Tanner Lee's favorite target, but Ohio State will do all it can to erase him from Nebraska's attack. Sure, Ohio State's young corners were tested and toasted early in the season, but this Nebraska attack is several steps down from Baker Mayfield's Oklahoma squad that planted the flag at The Horseshoe. Morgan will see plenty of volume Saturday, but he won't be able to translate it into the production we've seen for much of the season.

CONFERENCE USA

Michael Lawrence, WR, North Texas (vs. UTSA): I'll be doing everything I can to find somewhere showing this game as North Texas vs. UTSA is one of the best offensive matchups in Conference USA this season. Both the Mean Green and the Road Runners have been electric and Lawrence has been a part of the North Texas resurgence with 17 grabs for 254 yards and two scores. My concern is volume: teammate Jalen Guyton has taken over as the go-to wideout for quarterback Mason Fine with 40 targets -- including 18 in his last game. With that, Lawrence may see limited targets against one of the better defenses in Conference USA. Fade him this week.

MAC

Billy Bahl, QB, Ball State (at Kent State): Bahl has some starting experience to his credit and gets to go against arguably the worst team in the country Saturday due to Gus Ragland's injury. While he might be a trendy streaming option considering the opponent, Bahl does have some serious talent around him, highlighted by star receiver James Gardner, but his track record suggests that a nice group of skill position players might not be enough to make him startable. Bahl has 17 picks against 16 touchdowns in his career while completing 48 percent of his passes. Don't fall for the trap this week.

MOUNTAIN WEST

Alexander Mattison, RB, Boise State (at San Diego State): This is a callback to last week when I recommended sitting Mattison only to see him rack up 118 yards and two scores on BYU. Well, like when Austin Powers decided to stay on 13, I like to live dangerously ... I'll recommend sitting him again. The matchup this week is a lot tougher than what he faced against BYU as the Aztecs sport the 37th-best run defense. It's also worth noting that it took Mattison 29 carries to hit 118 yards. In the NFL that's fine per-carry production, but it's sort of middling for college. I doubt that Boise State will be able to dedicate 29 runs to Mattison and still have a cohesive offense in what might be the showdown of the year in the MWC.

PAC-12

Charles Nelson, WR, Oregon (at Stanford): To be clear, Nelson is a stud and is going to be fired up going against Stanford in his first game in nearly a month. Unfortunately, he's not coming back to much. With Justin Herbert out, the Ducks are in a tough spot at quarterback between freshman Braxton Burmeister and a banged up Taylor Alie. Dillon Mitchell's return should help take some of the heat off Nelson from the Stanford secondary, but this would've been a tough matchup even if Herbert was playing. Expect a high-volume, low-efficiency outing from Nelson in his return Saturday.

SEC

Malik Davis, RB, Florida (vs. Texas A&M): Davis has been a revelation in the Gators' backfield with Jordan Scarlett, coming out of nowhere to average 7.18 YPC through his first five games. My concern is that he sees a fairly even workload split with Lamical Perine, who seems to be the preferred goal line back. It's also worth noting that Texas A&M has been stout against the run and the Aggie defense made last week's game against Alabama a lot closer than most anticipated. Also, have you seen Florida's uniforms for Saturday? You can't, in good conscience, start anyone wearing those.

SUN BELT

Osharmar Abercrombie, RB, Coastal Carolina (at Arkansas State): Along with having one of the coolest names in college football, Abercrombie entered the year with some hype as a potential impact back. He's been solid overall, but he hasn't scored since Sept. 16 and has a total of 111 yards on 31 carries in his last three outings. In a game where Coastal Carolina's run game could go by the wayside if the Chanticleers fall behind early (a likely scenario), Abercrombie could be lost in the wash Saturday.