Mexico City Grand Prix
Location: Mexico City, Mexico
Course: Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez
Course Length: 4.30km
Laps: 71
Mexico City Grand Prix Race Preview
We're coming off of a compelling United States Grand Prix that delivered some big surprises. Ferrari pulled a 1-2 finish, with Charles Leclerc out-pacing Max Verstappen—the next closest non-Ferrari finisher – by almost 28 seconds. While the top two finishers were basically never in doubt, we did have drama among the top teams. There were a couple of interactions between the primary title contenders Max Verstappen and Lando Norris. The first came on the opening turn, when Verstappen dove down the inside of Norris to jumble up the top of the field. The latter incident came with only laps to go in the grand prix, when Verstappen defended his third-place position aggressively as Norris tried to navigate around the outside of the Red Bull before ultimately gaining the position off track. Finally, Mercedes took turns looking both like a title contender and nowhere near the top of the pack, leaving them as the true wild card of the group. However, we'll enter Mexico with four teams and seven different drivers all with a realistic chance to win. It doesn't get much better than that.
In the midfield, Haas has been the team with all of the momentum. They passed RB Honda at COTA and now sit sixth in the driver standings. They brought a significant upgrade to Austin, so we could continue to see their performance rise across the last several races of the season.
Key Stats at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez
- Races: 23
- Winners from pole: 10
- Winners from top-5 starters: 22
- Winners from top-10 starters: 22
Previous 10 Mexico Winners
2023- Max Verstappen
2022 - Max Verstappen
2021 - Max Verstappen
2019 - Lewis Hamilton
2018 - Max Verstappen
2017 - Max Verstappen
2016 - Lewis Hamilton
2015 - Nico Rosberg
1992 - Nigel Mansell
1991 - Riccardo Patrese
After a lengthy layoff, F1 will be at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez for the ninth consecutive year. The usual suspects have dominated at the track, as either Lewis Hamilton or Max Verstappen have won each since the track's return. Ferrari could be a team to watch. That's easy to say coming off of last week's 1-2 finish, but they Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz Jr. qualified 1-2 for the race last season.
As for the track itself, there are two standout areas of the track. The first is the long straight to begin the lap. That's followed by a section through Turns 14 and 15, a unique feature as drivers progress through an old baseball stadium that has kept stadium style seating.
There are two other unique features to this weekend that are less apparent on their face. The first is that this track isn't used as often for other racing series as most of the other circuits F1 visits. As a result, the track will start slick and ramp up. Expect a lot of traffic at the end of each qualifying session and perhaps some chaotic results based on teams mistiming their fast laps.
Finally, the track sits 2,000 feet above sea level, making downforce the key for car setup. That's yet another sign that this could be a good weekend for Ferrari.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS for the Mexico City Grand Prix
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Lando Norris - $12,400
Max Verstappen -$12,300
Charles Leclerc - $11,600
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
George Russell - $10,000
Carlos Sainz Jr. - $9,800
Lewis Hamilton - $9,400
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Sergio Perez- $6,400
Fernando Alonso - $6,000
Nico Hulkenberg- $5,000
DraftKings Tier 4 Values
Liam Lawson - $4,200
Pierre Gasly - $3,800
DraftKings Constructor Values
Ferrari - $11,500
Mercedes- $10,100
Haas - $3,300
RB Honda - $3,100
Formula 1 DFS Picks for the Mexico City Grand Prix
Captain – Carlos Sainz Jr. - $14,700
Lewis Hamilton -$9,400
Fernando Alonso-$6,000
Liam Lawson - $4,200
Pierre Gasly -$3,800
Constructor- Ferrari-$11,500
This is a tricky pricing structure to work around, but we can set the direction of our roster build with a few decisions. The first is the constructor to build around. Red Bull can be ruled out fairly quickly, with the exception of those who may believe Sergio Perez will have improved form at his home grand prix. Otherwise, he is clearly the weakest driver among the top four teams. There's a case to be made for the other three teams. McLaren is obvious as the current top-point earner, while Mercedes has the chance to be a significant value if they can get their peak speed they displayed at the U.S. Grand Prix to translate more consistently. I landed on Ferrari due to their recent form and steady driver pairing. In order of preference, I'd prioritize constructors as Ferrari, McLaren, Mercedes, Red Bull.
As usual, it makes sense to stack driver and constructor. Besides Mercedes, each of the top-tier constructors have a clear top driver by price. The next decision will be whether to pair that top driver with the constructor and essentially punt the rest of the roster or go to the lower-level driver (still a very good one) and build a more even roster. The example above went with the latter path. Qualifying could dictate which path is better. If things go as expected, I'd opt for the more balanced approach. If we get some of the elite drivers and teams pushed down the field, the boom-bust approach becomes more practical.
As for the values, two drivers stand out: Pierre Gasly and Liam Lawson. There's an argument for Franco Colapinto, who has had impressive results. However, he qualified 17th in Austin and benefitted from strategy considerably to get points at COTA. That could happen again, but the end result felt fortunate. As for Gasly, Alpine brought upgrades out of the second summer break that proved effective. He finished 12th at COTA, but arguably deserved better. Finally, Lawson has been very impressive any time he has been in an F1 car. I'd expect both Gasly's and Lawson's price to rise before the end of the season.
Formula 1 Betting Picks for the Mexico City Grand Prix
Race Winer: Charles Leclerc (+265), Max Verstappen (+265)
Podium Finish: Oscar Piastri (+135), Carlos Sainz Jr. (+200), George Russell (+380), Lewis Hamilton (+380)
Top-10 finish- Pierre Gasly (+330), Liam Lawson (+275), Nico Hulkenberg (-105)
Safety Car- No (+135)
Most of the logic behind these wagers follows from above. Lando Norris (+165) is an identical +265 to win, but I'd back Verstappen ahead of him at equal odds. We haven't talked much about Piastri after a quiet weekend at COTA, but he had three consecutive podiums prior to finishing fifth in Austin. He's a good value with a very realistic chance at reaching the podium.
Hulkenberg has been the key behind Haas' relative surge this season. He hangs around points in nearly every race, finishing 11th or better in 14 of 18 grand prix this season. With a bit of attrition in the field, he should be able to get to points, though his odds aren't particularly kind.
We often see incidents at the Mexican Grand Prix, though it's been notable how few safety cars we've seen this season. Tracks that often include fireworks such as Singapore and Baku did not have a full safety car situation during the race.
