Heineken Chinese Grand Prix
Location: Shanghai, China
Course: Shanghai International Circuit
Course Length: 5.45km
Laps: 56
Heineken Chinese Grand Prix Preview
Australia provided a chaotic and thrilling opening to the 2025 season, primarily thanks to the rain and consistently rotating wet and dry conditions. While great for entertainment, it doesn't make assessing the speed of each time particularly easy. However, the two extremes of the field seem fairly clear. McLaren was widely expected to have the best car entering the season and they delivered. The good news is that they have an evenly matched driver lineup, which should mean we see competition for wins even if they out-pace other teams on the grid. Haas has also had a tough time to start the year. They ran a specific long-run program in pre-season testing, though that seems to have obscured shortcomings in setup and top speed. Given that they are a relatively small team, it may take a while to see Haas move back up the pack.
We also get some help early in the weekend, as this is a sprint race. We'll cover those results later in the article as we shift into some deeper analysis.
Key Stats at Shanghai International Circuit
- Races: 17
- Winners from pole: 10
- Winners from top-5 starters: 15
- Winners from top-10 starters: 17
Previous 10 Chinese Grand Prix Winners
2024- Max Verstappen
2019 - Lewis Hamilton
2018 - Daniel Ricciardo
2017 - Lewis Hamilton
2016 - Nico Rosberg
2015 - Lewis Hamilton
2014 - Lewis Hamilton
2013 - Fernando Alonso
2012 - Nico Rosberg
2011 - Lewis Hamilton
The Chinese Grand Prix was one of the sacrificed races due to the combination of COVID-19 and the expansion of F1 into America as there was a significant gap from 2020 through 2023. However, we'll be there for the second consecutive year. It's a complex track for teams, as there are slow turns in 1 and 2 combined with a pair of long straight faster sweeping turns at 7 and 8.
One significant change from last season is that the circuit has been repaved. That has given drivers significant improvement in lap time, as Lewis Hamilton's pole in the sprint race was nearly five seconds quicker than what we saw in 2024. Pirelli noted after the session that they were surprised by the repave and increased grip, meaning tire management and strategy are both going to play a significant role in Sunday's results.
RotoWire F1 DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Heineken Chinese Grand Prix
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 DraftKings Values
Lando Norris - $13,000
Max Verstappen - $12,000
Oscar Piastri - $11,000
George Russell - $10,600
Charles Leclerc- $10,200
Lewis Hamilton – $9,600
Tier 2 DraftKings Values
Kimi Antonelli - $8,000
Tier 3 DraftKings Values
Alex Albon - $5,600
Yuki Tsunoda - $5,000
Fernando Alonso - $4,800
Pierre Gasly- $4,400
Tier 4 DraftKings Values
Nico Hulkenberg - $4,200
Isack Hadjar - $3,000
Constructor DraftKings Values
McLaren - $13,000
Ferrari - $11,000
Mercedes- $10,000
Williams - $4,800
Formula 1 DFS Picks for the Lenovo Chinese Grand Prix
Captain – Lewis Hamilton - $14,400
Oscar Piastri - $11,000
Alex Albon - $5,600
Fernando Alonso -$4,800
Pierre Gasly - $4,400
Isack Hadjar - $3,000
Constructor- Ferrari - $11,000
The sprint qualifying and shootout gave us a nice sample to work from and confirmed that despite McLaren's advantage, the standings are likely to be wide open for most of the season. That explains the bunch of drivers in Tier 1. The pair of Ferrari and McLaren drivers are capable of winning any week, as are Max Verstappen and George Russell. Kimi Antonelli may join that conversation soon, but he remains a tier below for now.
Any of those drivers are reasonable choices to build through, and qualifying should be the guide. Ferrari showed good speed and Hamilton has proven success at this track, so he is the choice for now. That also leads into the constructor strategy. Red Bull should not be considered due to the struggles of Liam Lawson, leaving Ferrari, McLaren and Mercedes as the obvious choices. Williams is also worth considering thanks to their strong driver lineup and because they looked to be the best midfield team in Australia.
From there, it's making the pieces fit. Despite his unfortunate crash on the formation lap at Albert Park, Hadar has shown speed early in his F1 career – including a strong showing in the sprint race. He may not contend for points, but he's mispriced as the cheapest driver in the field.
From there, targeting drivers likely to beat their teammate is an easy way to pick off value (DK scoring awards five points to drivers who beat their teammate). We may see the order change in Williams, but Albon understandably looks more comfortable than Carlos Sainz Jr. in the car. Lance Stroll had an impressive showing in Australia, but Alonso has to be the favorite to be the better Aston Martin until proven otherwise. Gasly is comfortably the better drive in Alpine, so a net of 15 points out of those three relatively cheap options is a good way to build the roster.
Formula 1 Best Bets for the Heineken Chinese Grand Prix
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:00 AM ET Saturday
Race Winner – Lewis Hamilton (+275), Oscar Piastri (+300)
Points finish – Pierre Gasly (+350)
Odds are pretty tight across most sportsbooks and will likely remain that way until after qualifying. The once place there could be at least some value is the outright winner. Lando Norris is the favorite, but he made a key mistake in qualifying and then struggled to look after his tires in the sprint. Even though he won last weekend, Piastri looked to be the quicker McLaren for significant portions of the race. He was denied a chance to win by the team telling him to maintain his position behind Norris, forcing Piastri to forego his best chance to take the lead. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Piastri out-qualify Norris this weekend, and he has the skill to hang on.
We've covered Hamilton, but we can't ignore the speed he's shown in the early portions of the weekend.
The top seven should basically be spoken for, leaving three points positions up for grabs. The most likely drivers to take advantage are Gasly, Yuki Tsunoda and Fernando Alonso. Of that group, Gasly comfortably has the most favorable odds and is a logical choice as a result. Qualifying will be important, however, and will also change these odds.
