Beating The Book

Last week was disappointing. Even though I went 8-6, we went 1-4 on SuperContest picks, and sadly my best bet streak came to an end with the Raiders. 

This week, I especially like the Colts, Browns, Dolphins, Seahawks and Giants. 

THURSDAY NIGHT

Patriots -7 at Falcons

I made this line 7.5, so I'm on the Patriots. It's actually a huge road line, and a month ago it might have been a pick 'em, but Bill Belichick's teams have outrun the oddsmakers for 20 years. Take the Pats.

Patriots 27 - 16

EARLY GAMES

Lions +10.5 at Browns

The Browns are coming off a humiliating loss, but they go home, while the Lions travel for the second straight week after a tough overtime tie against the Steelers. I expect the Browns to smash here, especially if Nick Chubb is healthy. Lay the wood. 

Browns 43 - 6

49ers -6.5 at Jaguars

The Niners looked great last week, but they have to travel for an early game six days later against a Jaguars squad that has played good defense the last two weeks. Take the points. 

49ers 26 - 20

Colts +7 at Bills

I see these as roughly equal teams, so seven is too much. Take the points. 

Colts 26 - 23

Dolphins -3 at Jets

The Dolphins are playing better of late, Tua Tagovailoa is back, and the Jets are starting Joe Flacco. Lay the wood. 

Dolphins 27 - 19

Team +3.5 at Panthers

The Team is missing Montez Sweat and now Chase Young, while the Panthers get Cam Newton in the fold to go along with a somewhat healthy Christian McCaffrey. I'll lay the wood, as the Panthers have a strong defense too. 

Panthers 24 - 17

Ravens -5.5 at Bears

The Ravens defense has been poor this year, and Justin Fields seems to have turned a corner over the last couple games. This is too many points in Chicago. Take the Bears. 

Ravens 23 - 20

Saints +1.5 at Eagles

The Eagles are coming off a solid win in Denver, but I'll buy the Saints low off their loss to the Titans. Take the 1.5. 

Saints 24 - 20

Texans +10 at Titans

This is coin flip for me, but my lean is the Texans off the bye with a healthy Tyrod Taylor. Take the points. 

Titans 26 - 20

Packers -2.5 at Vikings

I made this line 2.5, so I could go either way. I suppose I'll take the Packers whose defense has been excellent so far this year. 

Packers 24 - 21

LATE GAMES

Bengals -1 at Raiders

This a coin flip for me. I was on the Bengals because the Raiders were so bad Sunday night, but Jeff Erickson tried to talk me out of it. I'll switch just to blame Jeff if I lose. 

Raiders 26 - 23

Cardinals -2.5 at Seahawks

I'm not sure why the Seahawks aren't favored here at home with Kyler Murray iffy, and Russell Wilson (some version of him) playing. Take the points. 

Seahawks 27 - 17

Cowboys +2.5 at Chiefs

The Chiefs looked more like themselves Sunday night, but the Cowboys are better defensively, and Tyron Smith should be back at left tackle. Take the points. 

Cowboys 26 - 23

SUNDAY NIGHT

Steelers +5.5 at Chargers

I don't know whether Ben Roethlisberger will be able to suit up, and T.J. Watt is iffy too (though so is Joey Bosa), but this feels like too many points for an erratic Chargers team. Take the Steelers. 

Chargers 20 - 19

MONDAY NIGHT

Giants +11 at Buccaneers

The Buccaneers have lost two straight, so they will be focused, but if they're missing Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski again, they aren't the high-powered offense they were earlier in the year. Moreover, they're likely missing star lineman Vita Vea too. The Giants usually show up, so take the points. 

Buccaneers 27 - 20

Last week, I went into 8-6 ATS to go to 74-73-3 on the year, lost my best bet (Raiders) to go to 9-1, and went 1-4 in the SuperContest to go 26-23-1.  Last year my record was 118-130-8, my best bet record was 5-12 and I finished the Supercontest 35-48-2. In 2019, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2020, I've gone 2,808-2,626 (51.7%), not including ties.