This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I went 8-6 last week, and 3-2 in the SuperContest, but lost my fifth straight best bet, which is starting to irritate me.
This week, I especially like Saints and Bengals for now, but the spate of positive covid tests is going to play havoc with these lines, and I haven't been less sure about a slate all year.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Chiefs -3 at Chargers
My first inclination was to take the Chiefs, but then Chris Jones was put on the COVID list. That moved the line from four to three, so I suppose that's accounted for. Give me the Chiefs.
Chiefs 27 - 23
SATURDAY GAMES
Raiders +3 at Browns
The Browns have two offensive linemen, their top tight end and their top receiver on the covid list, while the Raiders are largely healthy, but coming off a blowout loss. I liked the Raiders when this line was six, but at three -- even with the covid scratches - it's a tougher call. Give me the Raiders on a hunch.
Raiders 20 - 17
Patriots +2.5 at Colts
I made this line a pick 'em, so put me on the Pats with 2.5 points. The Colts are a tough matchup because all the clever defensive schemes won't stop Jonathan Taylor from getting the ball, but the Pats can run too, and Bill Belichick is a wizard at limiting the damage.
Patriots 24 - 23
EARLY GAMES
Team +4.5 at Eagles
The Team is banged up, but if Taylor Heinicke
I went 8-6 last week, and 3-2 in the SuperContest, but lost my fifth straight best bet, which is starting to irritate me.
This week, I especially like Saints and Bengals for now, but the spate of positive covid tests is going to play havoc with these lines, and I haven't been less sure about a slate all year.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Chiefs -3 at Chargers
My first inclination was to take the Chiefs, but then Chris Jones was put on the COVID list. That moved the line from four to three, so I suppose that's accounted for. Give me the Chiefs.
Chiefs 27 - 23
SATURDAY GAMES
Raiders +3 at Browns
The Browns have two offensive linemen, their top tight end and their top receiver on the covid list, while the Raiders are largely healthy, but coming off a blowout loss. I liked the Raiders when this line was six, but at three -- even with the covid scratches - it's a tougher call. Give me the Raiders on a hunch.
Raiders 20 - 17
Patriots +2.5 at Colts
I made this line a pick 'em, so put me on the Pats with 2.5 points. The Colts are a tough matchup because all the clever defensive schemes won't stop Jonathan Taylor from getting the ball, but the Pats can run too, and Bill Belichick is a wizard at limiting the damage.
Patriots 24 - 23
EARLY GAMES
Team +4.5 at Eagles
The Team is banged up, but if Taylor Heinicke and Terry McLaurin play, I like them to stay in this game. Take the points.
Eagles 23 - 20
Panthers +10.5 at Bills
The Bills are coming off a short week, but they showed me something in the second half against the Bucs, and I expect them to smash the Panthers at home. Lay the wood.
Bills 33 - 16
Jets +8.5 at Dolphins
The Jets usually play the Dolphins tough, but with no Elijah Moore and Corey Davis, I expect Miami to roll. Lay the wood.
Dolphins 24 - 13
Cowboys -10.5 at Giants
The Giants with Mike Glennon are terrible, but this is a huge line on the road, and Tyron Smith, the Cowboys key offensive lineman, is hurt. Take the points.
Cowboys 24 - 17
Packers -4.5 at Ravens
Lamar Jackson, who has a low ankle sprain, might be out, but, if not, this is a good number for the Ravens. Give me the points.
Packers 24 - 20
Titans -1.5 at Steelers
I made this a pick 'em, so I'm on the Steelers off their 10-day hiatus. Take the points.
Titans 20 - 19
Texans +3.5 at Jaguars
I'm not sure why the Jaguars are more than a field goal favorite against anyone. This seems like a trap, but I'll walk into it. Take the Texans.
Jaguars 17 - 16
Cardinals -13.5 at Lions
I like the Cardinals off a loss to be focused in what might have been a look-ahead game. That said, this is a massive line on the road. Give me the points.
Cardinals 27 - 17
LATE GAMES
Falcons +9.5 at 49ers
The Niners have been better on the road than at home, and the Falcons have shown up more often than not. Give me the points.
49ers 30 - 23
Bengals +1.5 at Broncos
I like the Bengals off a loss against a Denver team with a weak passing game. The biggest concern I have is the Bengals played a rough overtime game against the Niners, while the Broncos had an easy one last week. Still, give me the points.
Bengals 27 - 20
Seahawks +5 at Rams
The Rams have covid problems, but I'll lay the wood here against a Seahawks team in which I still don't believe.
Rams 31 - 23
SUNDAY NIGHT
Saints +10.5 at Buccaneers
The Saints always play the Bucs tough, and they've gotten Terron Armstead, Marcus Davenport, Cameron Jordan and Alvin Kamara back. Take the points.
Buccaneers 27 - 23
MONDAY NIGHT
Vikings -3.5 at Bears
Maybe the Vikings will pull away from an opponent one of these games, but on the road in a cold-weather night game, I'll take the 3.5 points.
Vikings 26 - 23
Last week, I went into 8-6 ATS to go to 102-103-3 on the year, lost my best bet (Panthers) to go to 9-5, and went 3-2 in the SuperContest to go 37-32-1. Last year my record was 118-130-8, my best bet record was 5-12 and I finished the Supercontest 35-48-2. In 2019, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2020, I've gone 2,808-2,626 (51.7%), not including ties.
