This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
It was a 6-9-1 week, and I don't have many regrets. Maybe I should have laid the wood with the Eagles or Pats, but honestly, I wasn't strong on either of those games. The Ravens, my best bet, (dumb not to have taken the beyond obvious Bills), pushed, but probably deserved to lose.
This week, I particularly like the Jaguars, Packers, Seahawks and Bengals.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Redskins pick 'em at Cowboys
Maybe the Cowboys get it together, but the Redskins are better right now, and I think they'll win this game. Moreover, the short-week home team rule doesn't apply because both teams played on Thanksgiving. Take Washington.
Redskins 24 - 20
EARLY GAMES
Lions +3 at Ravens
The Ravens are so terrible offensively I want to take the Lions, but Detroit isn't a good running team, and I think the Ravens force Matthew Stafford into some mistakes. Lay the wood.
Ravens 20 - 9
49ers +3.5 at Bears
I'm in on the Jimmy Garoppolo hype, but the Bears are the better team, and they're at home. Lay the wood.
Bears 24 - 20
Vikings +3 at Falcons
The contrarian in me wants to take the Falcons, but the Vikings are the better defense, and I trust Case Keenum enough to hang around. Take the points.
Vikings 24 - 23
Patriots -8.5 at Bills
Normally I'd take the massive home dog here, but I don't want to. The Pats are rolling, and the Bills showed they weren't serious about 2017 when
It was a 6-9-1 week, and I don't have many regrets. Maybe I should have laid the wood with the Eagles or Pats, but honestly, I wasn't strong on either of those games. The Ravens, my best bet, (dumb not to have taken the beyond obvious Bills), pushed, but probably deserved to lose.
This week, I particularly like the Jaguars, Packers, Seahawks and Bengals.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Redskins pick 'em at Cowboys
Maybe the Cowboys get it together, but the Redskins are better right now, and I think they'll win this game. Moreover, the short-week home team rule doesn't apply because both teams played on Thanksgiving. Take Washington.
Redskins 24 - 20
EARLY GAMES
Lions +3 at Ravens
The Ravens are so terrible offensively I want to take the Lions, but Detroit isn't a good running team, and I think the Ravens force Matthew Stafford into some mistakes. Lay the wood.
Ravens 20 - 9
49ers +3.5 at Bears
I'm in on the Jimmy Garoppolo hype, but the Bears are the better team, and they're at home. Lay the wood.
Bears 24 - 20
Vikings +3 at Falcons
The contrarian in me wants to take the Falcons, but the Vikings are the better defense, and I trust Case Keenum enough to hang around. Take the points.
Vikings 24 - 23
Patriots -8.5 at Bills
Normally I'd take the massive home dog here, but I don't want to. The Pats are rolling, and the Bills showed they weren't serious about 2017 when they started Nathan Peterman for a game. Lay the wood.
Patriots 31 - 20
Broncos -1 at Dolphins
Trevor Siemian is probably the Broncos best QB, and that should be enough to handle the hapless Dolphins even in their own building. Take Denver.
Broncos 24 - 16
Texans +7 at Titans
Tom Savage was more civilized last week, and the Titans are just okay on both sides of the ball, nothing special. Take the points.
Titans 23 - 20
Colts +9.5 at Jaguars
The Colts are bad, and the Jaguars should bounce back at home after a tough loss. Lay the wood.
Jaguars 27 - 7
Buccaneers pick 'em at Packers
Whether or not Jameis Winston plays doesn't make a huge difference here. The Packers are the better team, and Brett Hundley showed something at Pittsburgh last week. Take the Packers.
Packers 27 - 20
Chiefs -3.5 at Jets
Maybe the Chiefs figure out what's wrong and right the ship, but it won't be on my watch. More than a field goal on the road? I'll take the Jets.
Jets 20 - 19
LATE GAMES
Panthers +4 at Saints
The Panthers defense is good, but the Jets handled them for most of the game, and the Saints are playing at another level, their loss in Los Angeles notwithstanding. Lay the wood.
Saints 24 - 17
Browns +14 at Chargers
I love the Chargers as much as anyone but Mark Stopa, but they're not the kind of team with which I'd want to lay 14. Take the Browns.
Chargers 27 - 17
Rams -7 at Cardinals
The Rams are playing well, but this is a big number on the road against a non-doormat. Take the points.
Rams 26 - 20
Giants +7 at Raiders
Geno Smith, Eli Manning, what difference does it make? I like the Giants getting a full TD against a terrible Raiders defense and an offense possibly missing its two top receivers. Take the points.
Raiders 23 - 17
SUNDAY NIGHT
Eagles -5.5 at Seahawks
The Eagles are crushing everyone in their path of late, but this is a massive line in a night game in Seattle. Take the points.
Seahawks 31 - 30
MONDAY NIGHT
Steelers -5.5 at Bengals
The Steelers are good this year, but the Bengals defense is playing better, and the offense is slowly coming around. Take the home dog.
Bengals 24 - 23
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I went 6-9-1 against the spread in Week 12 to put me at 82-87-7 on the season. I went 3-2 on LVH SuperContest picks to go 29-30-1 overall there. I was 123-128-5 during the 2017 season. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,428-2,270 (51.7%), not including ties.
