Beating the Book: Cowboys, Chiefs roll, Vikings win thriller + Full NFL Week 3 ATS Picks

Week 2 was a less-than-stellar performance for us here at Beating the Book, where we fell victim to some fourth-quarter collapses (looking at you, Green Bay and Cleveland), as well as a few extremely tough-to-swallow backdoor covers (Carolina, LA Rams, Minnesota). But in the world of NFL ATS picks, there's nothing more important than having a short memory. With that in mind, we're quickly turning the page to Week 3, which begins Thursday night with the Giants shipping out to San Francisco to attempt to cover a double-digit spread.

That game (SF -10.5, as of publication) is one of several big numbers on the Week 3 board. The Cowboys are 12.5-point favorites over Arizona, while the Chiefs are 12.5-point favorites at home against the morabund Chicago Bears. Meanwhile, the Jaguars sit at 9.0-point favorites over Houston, while three other teams (Miami, Washington, Seattle) are giving at least a touchdown.

For the second week in a row, we're blessed with a pair of Monday Night games. First up, a pair of 2-0 teams in Philadelphia and Tampa Bay do battle, followed by Rams-Bengals, as Cincinnati – which could be without Joe Burrow – looks to avoid an 0-3 start.

You can find a few more thoughts on both of those games – as well as the entire Week 3 slate – below. As will be the case every week throughout the regular season, we'll start with Thursday Night Football and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Last week: 6-9-1 ATS, 9-7 SU; 1-1 best bet

On the season: 14-17-1 ATS, 18-14 SU; 1-1 best bet

Best calls of Week 2

• While Buffalo's season couldn't have started on a more sour note, this should be a big-time bounceback spot at home against an inferior opponent. Give me the Bills to recalibrate and win comfortably.
• As long as Kelce plays, the Chiefs aren't starting 0-2. With Jones back, the defense should have a nice advantage over Jacksonville, who could be without two starters on the offensive line.

Worst calls of Week 2

• I don't trust Ryan Tannehill, who tossed three picks in Week 1, to expose those weaknesses again. Tennessee's defensive line could pose some issues, but the Chargers can put up enough points to out-race the Titans over four quarters.
• Even on the road, I love the Giants to bounce back in Week 2 against a Cardinals team that hung in with Washington but is going to have trouble doing the same with more-competent teams. Jones, Saquon Barkley, Darren Waller and the Giants pull away early and sit on a comfortable lead in the second half.

Odds this week via the DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Thursday Night Football

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5)

After being out-scored 60-0 through their first six quarters of the season, the Giants finally came alive in the second half, surging all the way back to win outright – but not cover – against Arizona. While the Giants may have won that battle, they lost Saquon Barkley to an ankle injury in the process. Without the services of Barkley, as well as star tackle Andrew Thomas, hanging in with one of the three best teams in the NFL – on a short week, no less – is an incredibly difficult ask.

This is a dangerous number, but we're rolling with the 49ers at home. Daniel Jones is just 1-11 SU in night games, while the Niners are 14-1 SU with Christian McCaffrey in the lineup. The Niners also have the highest pass rush grade in the NFL thus far, per PFF, while the Giants' offensive line is off to a rough start. We're not going to overthink this one.

The pick: 49ers 31 – Giants 20

Sunday Early Games

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (7.5)

The Colts got a win in Houston in Week 2, despite losing Anthony Richardson to concussion late in the first quarter. It's anyone's guess as to whether Richardson will be available Sunday – he didn't practice Wednesday – but frankly I'm not sure it happens. Indy has one of the better backups in the league in Gardner Minshew, and while the rookie is obviously the higher-upside guy long-term, there's a case to be made that Minshew gives the Colts a higher floor for the time being.

Early on, the Ravens have looked like the class of the AFC North, but they'll have to be careful not to let their guard down against an inferior opponent. I like Baltimore to win outright – Lamar Jackson is 24-4 SU when favored by at least 7.0 – but I think Indy, assuming Minshew starts, can do just enough through the air to keep this game competitive.

Jackson is just 2-11 ATS as a favorite of at least 3.0 points over the last two seasons, and one of those wins came against Houston in Week 1. Keep an eye on the weather in Baltimore as the weekend approaches. With a tropical storm potentially approaching, the U45.0 is an intriguing play.

The pick: Ravens 27 – Colts 20

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-3.0)

The list of running backs who impact their team more than Nick Chubb is an extremely short one, so while this number is down from opening Browns -4.5, I still think there's some value on the Titans. Tennessee is 23-9-1 ATS under Mike Vrabel when facing a spread of +3.0 or more, and Vrabel's teams have been even better in those circumstances early in the season. After a disastrous Week 1, Ryan Tannehill bounced back in a big way last week, and the Titans returned to the Derrick Henry-centric gameplan that's given them a high floor week-to-week for the last several years.

While the Browns' defense is capable of taking over this game, I don't trust the offense to carry its share of the workload. Deshaun Watson has been… fine thus far, but we're yet to see any indications that he's close to returning to superstar status. We'll roll with the Titans to hopefully start the game off with an immediate pick-six and not only cover the number but also win outright. 

The pick: Titans 23 – Browns 20

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (-3.5)

In a week with so many big favorites, this might be my favorite matchup. The number was up to Lions -5.5 a few days ago but has gradually shrunk, perhaps in reaction to Amon-Ra St. Brown and David Montgomery – not to mention C.J. Gardner-Johnson – picking up injuries in Week 2. The hope is that St. Brown, who didn't practice Wednesday, will be good to go, but if he's out, or even limited, that's a massive blow to the Lions' offense.

On the other side, Atlanta comes in at 2-0, riding its rushing attack to wins over Carolina and Green Bay. Arthur Smith put the training wheels on Desmond Ridder in Week 1, but we saw a slightly expanded version of Ridder against Green Bay. If the Falcons fall behind again this week, it'll be interesting to see how much leash Smith is willing to give the second-year quarterback.

I'm not going as far as picking the Falcons to win on the road, but I think we get a very competitive game once again buoyed by Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier and the Atlanta ground attack. Through two weeks, Detroit grades out dead last at PFF in terms of tackling. 

The pick: Lions 28 – Falcons 25

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-2.0)

We're very much in wait-and-see territory with Green Bay, which could again be without arguably its four best offensive players. Elgton Jenkins is out, while the statuses of Aaron Jones, Christian Watson and David Bakhtiari remain TBD. Either way, the Packers' offense played a passable game in Atlanta last week – the problem was they only possessed the ball for 23 minutes, as the defense allowed Atlanta to pick up 27 first downs and run 31 more offensive plays than Green Bay.

The good news for the Packers is early returns on Jordan Love are (mostly) positive. He's missed a few throws, sure, but no one is throwing into more tight windows than Love, who's yet to commit a turnover. Getting Watson back would be huge for the young signal-caller, while the return of Jones would prevent Green Bay from having to hand the ball off to AJ Dillon (-1.22 yards per carry below expected thus far) 15 times.

On the New Orleans side, the Saints are 2-0 but, man, it has not been pretty. The Saints' offensive line has been among the worst units in the league, leading to eight Derek Carr sacks through the first two weeks. With Alvin Karama serving the final game of his suspension, and Jamaal Williams (hamstring) likely out, New Orleans may have to rely on its so-so passing game to out-score the Packers.

With the assumption that at least one of Watson or Jones is back in the lineup, I'll (ever so cautiously) take Green Bay to win and cover with the rest advantage. OVer the last five-plus season, Derek Carr is just 19-30-2 ATS in away games.

The pick: Packers 20 – Saints 17

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.0)

Through two weeks, Jacksonville's offense has looked anything but the high-flying unit we hoped it could be after adding Calvin Ridley. Sure, the Jags put up 31 points on the Colts in Week 1, but even that game felt like a slog for three-plus quarters. The little things look difficult right now for Jacksonville, which has converted only 7-of-29 third and fourth down attempts. The Jags have had extreme trouble finding the right play call in short-yardage situations. Of course, it doesn't help that their run-blocking grades out at 31st in the NFL, while the pass protection doesn't rank much higher.

All of this is to say: it's been a clunky start for the Jaguars. Can a home matchup against the Texans cure all ills? Historically, the answer has usually been a resounding "yes", but the 0-2 Texans have shown plenty of friskiness through two weeks. C.J. Stroud is yet to throw a pick, and the defense has been bad but not full-on-disaster levels of bad. With that said, the Texans will likley be without Derek Stingley, who suffered a hamstring injury at practice Wednesday.

I like this game to play out similarly to the Jags' Week 1 win over the Colts. Start slow, commit a killer turnover or two, then find a way to barely hang on for a comfortable win but a dicey cover.

The pick: Jaguars 34 – Texans 24

Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins (-6.0)

I was willing to give the Broncos a chance. I really was. We even took them in Circa Million against the Raiders in Week 1. After that colossal blunder, we placed them on probation a week ago. Despite that, we still took Denver to win outright (but not cover, thankfully) at home against Washington. If you can't beat those teams at home, I don't know what to tell ya, bud. 

Denver now heads out on the road for the first time, traveling all the way down to Miami to face the NFL's best offense. While the Broncos might catch a break if Jaylen Waddle (concussion) can't go, I'm not sure it even matters. Denver's defense has been a disaster thus far, ranking 30th in EPA and especially struggling against the pass. If you can't slow down Sam Howell, how do you slow down the current odds-on favorite to win the NFL MVP award?

In what suddenly feels like a game that could put Russell Wilson on the hot seat (he hasn't been great, but I don't think he's been the Broncos' primary problem, which kills me to admit), we're rolling with the Dolphins to breeze their way to 3-0 heading into next week's showdown with the Bills.

The pick: Dolphins 30 – Broncos 20

Los Angeles Chargers at Minnesota Vikings (-1.0)

I don't know who's going to win this game, but I'll tell you this: it might be game-over for whichever team loses. Sure, Minnesota will have a chance to hang around in a weakened NFC, but really for both teams an 0-3 start would be a near-death-knell. Since 1999, only one team (out of 99) has started 0-3 and made the postseason – the 2018 Houston Texans, who played in an absolute gauntlet of an AFC South.

As the number intimates, this is about as close to a toss up game as it gets. The Chargers would be slight favorites on a neutral, but Minnesota has a real home field advantage and the best player on the turn in Justin Jefferson. The Chargers, meanwhile, may be without Austin Ekeler (ankle) again, as he did not practice on Wednesday.

Ultimately, both of these teams should be able to move the ball through the air. There's a reason the total is by far the highest of the week at 54.0. As much as I love Justin Herbert and the idea of what this Chargers offense can be, they simply haven't been able to close out games. The Action Network had a great stat on Herbert's and LA's second-half woes: In his career, Herbert is just 7-22-2 against the second-half spread when leading at halftime. 

Deep down, I still think the Chargers are the better team, but we've been down this road before. Vikings win.

The pick: Vikings 34 – Chargers 31

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+2.5)

Robert Saleh is 0-4 straight up against the Patriots over the last two seasons, and he'll look to break that streak with Zach Wilson once again under center. This was far from the plan for the Jets, who will likely have to look elsewhere at some point if they hope to salvage their season. But going up against a winless Pats team with seemingly no playmakers on offense, the path to a 2-1 start is very much there. 

With that said, I simply cannot bring myself to pick a Zach Wilson-led team to overcome the Pats' defense, but New England's offense hasn't proven that it can pull away – even against the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. We'll roll with the Pats to eek out a narrow win, but the Jets cover the 2.5 points.

The pick: Patriots 14 – Jets 13

Buffalo Bills at Washington Commanders (+6.5)

The Bills are clearly the better team, but as far as the elites go, they're more susceptible than most to having an off day, as was the case in Week 1. I'm not picking against Buffalo to win outright on the road against a shaky secondary, but I do like Sam Howell to do enough to keep the Commanders within a score.

The pick: Bills 27 – Commanders 21

Sunday Afternoon Games

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-6.0)

Coming off of a Monday night game, this is a tough turnaround for Carolina to travel cross-country on a short week. The Panthers showed signs of life in an ugly game against New Orleans, but protecting Bryce Young and producing big plays remains an issue. This week, it's starting to look as though that line will be protecting Andy Dalton instead of Young, who's battling an ankle injury. Like Minshew in Indianapolis, there's a case to be made that the Panthers' floor is about the same, or higher, with Dalton under center, so it doesn't really sway my opinion on this game.

Seattle got back on track last week and has the clear talent advantage on offense. We'll back the Seahawks to win and cover at home.

The pick: Seahawks 27 – Panthers 20

Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals (+12.5)

The Cardinals deserve credit for hanging in with Washington and the Giants and starting the year 2-0 ATS, but it certainly feels like it could all come crashing down against the dominant Cowboys defense. Dallas has outscored its opponents 70 to 10 thus far – all without asking Dak Prescott and the offense to carry much of a burden. This matchup and this number may scream trap game to some, but Dallas is catching the Cardinals at the right time. They simply can't keep getting away with this.

The pick: Cowboys 35 – Cardinals 21

Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5)

Before facing the Chiefs, the ideal scenario for most teams is either: 1. Your defensive coordinator resigns abruptly amid (apparently false) rumors that the FBI raided your facility; or, 2. Your starting quarterback publicly criticizes the head coach. Rarely do you get both, but the Bears have managed to pull it off. While I'm always going to have some degree of pause when it comes to taking a double-digit favorite, there's not much of an argument as to why Chicago should be able to hang with Patrick Mahomes and a ferocious Chiefs defense at Arrowhead.

Perhaps the fear is Kansas City taking its foot off the gas in the second half, but this is an offense that needs to see a few shots go through the net. The Chiefs haven't quite looked like The Chiefs thus far – I have a feeling that will change Sunday afternoon.

Side note: Peanut Tillman becoming an FBI agent should be a much bigger deal. Shame on the media.

The pick: Chiefs 27 – Bears 10

Sunday Night Football

Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5)

Steelers OC Matt Canada's seat is growing warmer and warmer with each passing week. If Pittsburgh can't get anything going against one of the NFL's worst defenses, it might be time for a change. In Canada's defense (a phrase that might get you punched in Pittsburgh), the Steelers' offensive line grades out as the worst in the league through two weeks at PFF – and by a massive margin.

Protecting Kenny Pickett has been the primary issue, though some of that can be chalked up to facing Nick Bosa and Miles Garrett to start the year. But Pittsburgh's run blocking has been almost as bad (30th per PFF). There's a reason Najee Harris has spent more time behind the line of scrimmage than any back in the league.

The Steelers should be able to find a bit more success against the Raiders, but they once again won't have the services of Diontae Johnson, so it's a firm "I'll see it when I believe it" when it comes to the passing game. The Raiders haven't been a great pass-rushing team thus far, but they have done an excellent job of protecting Jimmy Garoppolo, who's yet to take a sack. I'm banking on T.J. Watt and Co. changing that this week and backing the Steelers to go into Vegas and churn out their second consecutive ugly win.

Mike Tomlin, as you may have heard, is 54-31-4 ATS and 44-45 SU as a dog in his career. Interestingly, Garoppolo is 20-1 ATS as a favorite.

The pick: Steelers 20 – Raiders 17

Monday Night Football

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.0)

Through two weeks, the Eagles feel slightly undervalued, while the Bucs may be a bit overvalued coming off of back-to-back wins over Minnesota and Chicago. Philly's run defense looks as stout as ever, but the pass defense, which allowed four touchdown passes to Kirk Cousins, has been shaky.

It feels like an Eagles eruption could be coming at any point, so I'm not picking against Philly in this spot. But I think the Bucs can hang around and cover the 5.0 at home.

The pick: Eagles 27 – Buccaneers 23

Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.0)

Attempting to pick this game without knowing if Joe Burrow will play is dicey territory, but it's my professional duty to fall on the sword and make a decision. We'll issue an updated call later in the week once Burrow's status is known, but there's a case to be made that even a hampered Burrow will struggle against a surprisingly spry Rams team that put up a real fight against San Francisco in Week 2.

Assuming Burrow is less than 100 percent, at best, we'll roll with the Rams to win outright in Cincy and officially send the Bengals into a panic.

The pick: Rams 26 – Bengals 24