Beating the Book: Handicapping Week 10

Last week was good -- 9-5 ATS, 3-2 in the SuperContest, and I won my best bet (Dolphins) to go 9-0 on the year. 

This week, I especially like the Dolphins, Colts, Broncos and Raiders. 

THURSDAY NIGHT

Ravens -7.5 at Dolphins

If I knew Tua Tagovailoa were playing this might be my best bet, but that's unclear at this point. Still, this is too many points for the Ravens and their weak defense to be laying on the road. Take Miami. 

Ravens 24 - 23

EARLY GAMES

Jaguars +10.5 at Colts

The Jaguars pulled off a stunning upset last week, but the Colts are built to bully weak teams with their running game and decent defense. Lay the wood. 

Colts 33 - 17

Browns +1.5 at Patriots

The Patriots get better as the season goes on, and the oddsmakers can't keep up. Lay the wood here. 

Patriots 20 - 16

Falcons +9.5 at Cowboys

This is a coin-flip for me. If Tyron Smith plays, I'm on Dallas probably, and if not it's 50/50. I guess that means I'm on the Cowboys. 

Cowboys 31 - 20

Bills -13 at Jets

The market is ignoring what happened last weeks, it seem. Maybe that makes sense, but the Jets have shown some fight the last two weeks, and that's enough for me. Take the points. 

Bills 27 - 17

Saints +3 at Titans

The Titans are on quite a roll, and while the Saints are stout, they should be getting more than three in Tennessee, especially given their quarterback woes. Take the Titans. 

Titans 24 - 20

Buccaneers -9.5 at Team

Every time I take the Team they compete but simply cannot execute in the red zone, and they fail to cover. But they played a better version of these Bucs in the playoffs and kept it close, so I'll go back to the well one more time here. Take the points. 

Buccaneers 27 - 20

Lions +9 at Steelers

I'm torn, but give me the Lions off the bye against a Steelers team that played a nail-biter Monday night. 

Steelers 20 - 16

LATE GAMES

Vikings +2.5 at Chargers

The Vikings are a tough team to read. They disappoint when they're favorites, but they cover and lose when they're underdogs. But this spread is so small, it would be hard to cover and lose. I suppose I'll hold my nose and take them, but I wouldn't touch this game. 

Chargers 31 - 30

Panthers +10.5 at Cardinals

I've gotten the Cardinals wrong most of the year. The one time I believed in them was the Packers game when they lost. But I'll fade them again here -- Carolina has as good defense, and Kyler Murray is still iffy. Take the Panthers. 

Cardinals 24 - 17

Seahawks +3.5 at Packers

I expect Aaron Rodgers to play well after all the heat he's taken, but Russell Wilson is back, the Seahawks played well in his absence, and Seattle is a desperate team. Take the points. 

Packers 27 - 24

Eagles +2.5 at Broncos

I might be buying high here, but give me the Broncos at home with that defense against an erratic Eagles squad. 

Broncos 23 - 17

SUNDAY NIGHT

Chiefs -2.5 at Raiders

The Chiefs might flip the switch one of these days and go back to being the team we watched the last few years, but at this point, it's on them to do it, not me to bet on it. Take the Raiders who win outright. 

Raiders 27 - 24

MONDAY NIGHT

Rams -4 at 49ers

The 49ers are an abomination -- just painful watching Jimmy Garoppolo have zero ability to avoid pressure. But I'll hold my nose and buy low in a divisional Monday night home game. Take the points. 

Rams 26 - 23

Last week, I went into 9-5 ATS to go to 66-67-3 on the year, won my best bet (Dolphins) to go to 9-0, and went 3-2 in the SuperContest to go 25-19-1.  Last year my record was 118-130-8, my best bet record was 5-12 and I finished the Supercontest 35-48-2. In 2019, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2020, I've gone 2,808-2,626 (51.7%), not including ties.