Beating the Book: Week 4

Last week was disappointing -- 7-9 overall, and 2-3 in the SuperContest, though I did win my best bet (Chargers.)

This week, I like the Bears and Giants the best, and the Vikings and Seahawks after that. 

THURSDAY NIGHT

Jaguars +7.5 at Bengals

I don't love that the Bengals just beat their biggest rival last week and sit at 2-1. That sets this up as an "overlook" game four days later, but the onus is on the Jaguars to prove they can hang with an NFL team at this point, not the other way around. Off the short week, give me the home team. Lay the wood. 

Bengals 33 - 20

EARLY GAMES

Football Team -1.5 at Falcons

I made this a pick 'em, so that puts me on the Falcons. I want to buy the Football Team low, but they've been bad this year, and so I'll fade them as road favorites. Take the Falcons. 

Falcons 23 - 20

Lions +3 at Bears

The Bears were atrocious last week, but before the season this would have been a surprising line. Justin Fields will need to play much better (and have a better game plan), but I'm laying the wood. 

Bears 26 - 20

Titans -7.5 at Jets

I made this line seven, so that puts me on the Jets. As terrible as they've been, they get a Titans team with a bad defense that might be down its top two receivers at home. Take the points. 

Titans 23 - 17

Browns -2 at Vikings

I see these two teams as rough equals, so I'm not sure why the Browns are laying wood on the road. Take the Vikings. 

Vikings 27 - 24

Colts +2 at Dolphins

I made this line three initially, but then I realized Jacoby Brissett was the quarterback for Miami. I'll go against my initial post (always dangerous) and take the points with a not much better Carson Wentz. 

Colts 24 - 23

Panthers +4.5 at Cowboys

The Cowboys defense looks legitimately good even though it's missing DeMarcus Lawrence. The Panthers defense looks good, but I wasn't especially impressed with Sam Darnold against the Texans. That said, give me the points -- the Cowboys are coming off the short week, and the Panthers have 10 days' rest. 

Cowboys 27 - 24

Giants +8 at Saints

I'm 0-3 on the Giants so far this season, so you might want to do the opposite, given they're my team. But I like them this week getting so many points against a Saints squad that doesn't light it up offensively. Take the points. 

Saints 24 - 19

Chiefs -7.5 at Eagles

The Eagles looked awful Monday night, are down three offensive linemen and coming off a short week. But this is a big line on the road for a Chiefs team that could easily be 0-3. Take the points. 

Chiefs 31 - 24

Texans +16.5 at Bills

Oddly, this is exactly where I set the line, so I have to make a choice. Heads Bills, tails Texans. Tails it is. Take the Texans. 

Bills 29 - 16 

LATE GAMES

Cardinals +4.5 at Rams

This is exactly where I set the line which is too bad because it was at six last I checked. Still, I'll stay with the Cardinals who make this a game against a division rival. Take the points. 

Rams 28 - 24

Seahawks +3 at 49ers

I want to buy both these teams low, but give me the Seahawks who should be able to exploit the 49ers' weak secondary. 

Seahawks 31 - 30

Ravens +1 at Broncos

I had set this at three, and I hate taking teams coming off emotional wins. But as solid as Denver's defense is, they've had an easy schedule, and Lamar Jackson presents unique problems. Take the Ravens. 

Ravens 26 - 20

Steelers +6.5 at Packers

This is a trappy-looking line, but I won't overthink it. The Packers look like themselves again, and they're always much tougher at home. Lay the wood. 

Packers 27 - 20

SUNDAY NIGHT

Buccaneers -6.5 at Patriots

From a human interest standpoint, this might be the most interesting game in NFL history. But I set it at seven, and it's 6.5, so put me on Team Brady, in part because the Bucs' weakness (pass defense) is irrelevant against a dink and dunk offense.  

Buccaneers 24 - 17

MONDAY NIGHT

Raiders +3.5 at Chargers

This is exactly where I set this line, and I'm torn. I love Justin Herbert, but I don't think the Raiders are a mirage, and I'm not sure which team will have more fans in LA. Give me the points. 

Chargers 27 - 24

Last week, I went 7-9 ATS to go to 22-25-1 on the year, won my best bet (Chargers) to go to 3-0, and went 2-3 in the SuperContest to go 7-8.  Last year my record was 118-130-8, my best bet record was 5-12 and I finished the Supercontest 35-48-2. In 2019, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2020, I've gone 2,808-2,626 (51.7%), not including ties.