This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
It's annoying for the second week in a row I was having a decent week before losing both the Sunday and Monday night games. Even worse, we were 3-0 in the SuperContest before falling to 3-2 courtesy of the Bucs and Raiders. Overall, I finished 8-8, but at least won my best bet (Bears.)
This week, I especially like the Saints and 49ers.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Rams -2.5 at Seahawks
This is exactly where I set the line, so it's essentially a coin-flip for me. I guess I'll buy the Rams low off the Arizona blowout, but I don't like laying wood on the road between two division rivals.
Rams 31 - 27
EARLY GAMES
Jets +3 at Falcons*
I forgot this game was in London when I made the line. I thought the Jets should get 3.5 in Atlanta, so three on a neutral field is probably enough. Take the points.
Jets 20 - 19
* game in London
Dolphins +10 at Buccaneers
This is more or less the right line. The Dolphins with Jacoby Brissett are a borderline doormat, but the Bucs were really missing Rob Gronkowski Sunday night, and their secondary is decimated. But give me the Bucs, as I don't think Brissett can exploit them.
Buccaneers 31 - 16
Eagles +3.5 at Panthers
This doesn't seem like enough points, so the game strikes me as trappy, but I'll stick to my guns and lay the wood. Take the Panthers.
Panthers 27 - 23
Saints -1.5
It's annoying for the second week in a row I was having a decent week before losing both the Sunday and Monday night games. Even worse, we were 3-0 in the SuperContest before falling to 3-2 courtesy of the Bucs and Raiders. Overall, I finished 8-8, but at least won my best bet (Bears.)
This week, I especially like the Saints and 49ers.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Rams -2.5 at Seahawks
This is exactly where I set the line, so it's essentially a coin-flip for me. I guess I'll buy the Rams low off the Arizona blowout, but I don't like laying wood on the road between two division rivals.
Rams 31 - 27
EARLY GAMES
Jets +3 at Falcons*
I forgot this game was in London when I made the line. I thought the Jets should get 3.5 in Atlanta, so three on a neutral field is probably enough. Take the points.
Jets 20 - 19
* game in London
Dolphins +10 at Buccaneers
This is more or less the right line. The Dolphins with Jacoby Brissett are a borderline doormat, but the Bucs were really missing Rob Gronkowski Sunday night, and their secondary is decimated. But give me the Bucs, as I don't think Brissett can exploit them.
Buccaneers 31 - 16
Eagles +3.5 at Panthers
This doesn't seem like enough points, so the game strikes me as trappy, but I'll stick to my guns and lay the wood. Take the Panthers.
Panthers 27 - 23
Saints -1.5 at Football Team
The Football Team was lucky to beat the Falcons, needing a kick return TD and last minute score to get it done. The Saints lost to the Giants in overtime, but I expect them to outmuscle the Team at the point of attack and win this game decisively. Lay the wood.
Saints 26 - 19
Titans -4 at Jaguars
Urban Meyer is a real coach, obviously, but I'll still take the points after watching Trevor Lawrence wake up against the Bengals last Thursday.
Titans 24 - 23
Lions +7.5 at Vikings
The Lions have stayed in games, but their defense is poor, and the Vikings are at home and at 1-3 a desperate animal. Lay the wood.
Vikings 33 - 17
Broncos +1 at Steelers
The Broncos were exposed last week, and if Teddy Bridgewater (concussion) can't go, the Steelers should have their way with Drew Lock. Lay the point.
Steelers 19 - 16
Packers -3 at Bengals
This is right where I set the line. I believe in Joe Burrow and the offense and expect them to hang with the Packers in Cincinnati. Take the home dog.
Bengals 27 - 26
Patriots -9 at Texans
I made this line only 7.5, so this is good value, but the Texans offense is so bad, I think the Patriots will cover. Lay the wood.
Patriots 23 - 6
LATE GAMES
Bears +5.5 at Raiders
The Bears held on against the Lions, but the Raiders are a decent team, and I expect them to roll at home. Lay the wood.
Raiders 31 - 20
Browns +1.5 at Chargers
The Browns defense has been awfully good, but the Chargers are also stout defensively, and they have the better quarterback. Lay the wood.
Chargers 24 - 20
Giants +7 at Cowboys
The Giants look like a real team finally, and while the Cowboys look like serious contenders, give me the points in a matchup between division rivals.
Cowboys 30 - 24
49ers +5.5 at Cardinals
The Cardinals destroyed the Rams in Los Angeles and sit at 4-0, while the 49ers have a rookie quarterback and inconsistent defense. But I'll buy-low/sell-high here in a game between division rivals. Take the points.
49ers 30 - 29
SUNDAY NIGHT
Bills +2.5 at Chiefs
The Bills have the better defense, but they've also played the Steelers, Jacoby Brissett Dolphins, Football Team and Texans, not exactly a murderer's row of opponents. The Chiefs can light up anyone and should be favored at home, but I expect the game to be so close the points might matter. Take the Bills.
Chiefs 31 - 30
MONDAY NIGHT
Colts +7 at Ravens
The Colts aren't good, but they're scrappy, and I expect them to be up for this game. The Ravens should hold them off, but I see this being a fight. Take the points.
Ravens 26 - 20
Last week, I went 8-8 ATS to go to 30-33-1 on the year, won my best bet (Bears) to go to 4-0, and went 3-2 in the SuperContest to go 10-10. Last year my record was 118-130-8, my best bet record was 5-12 and I finished the Supercontest 35-48-2. In 2019, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2020, I've gone 2,808-2,626 (51.7%), not including ties.
