NFL Odds, Picks and Predictions for Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs
This early-window matchup sets up as a potential turning point in the Chiefs' AFC title defense and years-long dominance in the AFC West, not to mention the full ascension of the Colts to Super Bowl contender status.
With a highly intriguing pre-Thanksgiving clash predicted, we dig into best bets to consider.
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Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Colts +165 (ESPN Bet) / Chiefs -180 (BetRivers)
Point spread: Colts +3.5 (DraftKings) / Chiefs -3.5 (BetMGM)
Totals: Over 49.5 points (BetMGM) / Under 50.5 points (DraftKings)
The spread for this game has noticeably narrowed since it's pre-Week 11 figure. Indianapolis was on bye while the Chiefs were entangled in a difficult divisional matchup against the Broncos. KC came up short, which seemed to have played a part in the number being bet down from 4.5 all the way down to 3 at one point this week before slightly expanding back to 3.5.
The total has been on a bit of a rollercoaster as well, as it sat at 50.5 before Week 11 and has returned to that number at DraftKings going into the weekend. In between, it was bet down to 48.5 before shooting back up to the original figure despite Xavier Worthy being listed as questionable due to an ankle injury.
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Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Picks
Prior to the start of the season, you'd have expected the records for these two teams to be reversed by the time this matchup rolled around. The Colts have since proven to have one of the most efficient offenses in either conference, one which is surprisingly helmed by a previously maligned first-round pick in Daniel Jones that's putting together the best season of his career.
In turn, the Chiefs have come back to the pack after years of superiority, despite Patrick Mahomes taking a turn-back-the-clock approach in his aggressiveness through the air. Plus he finally has all of Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown and Worthy available simultaneously, in addition to a healthy Travis Kelce. Yet, Kansas City isn't anywhere near as middling as its 5-5 record would suggest. Instead, it simply seems that the late-game pendulum that so often swung the Chiefs' way in the past has gone in the other direction. Additionally, Andy Reid's squad has dealt with a hellacious schedule were the margin for error has been narrowed.
To further illustrate, KC's five losses have come by six (Chargers), three (Eagles), three (Jaguars), seven (Bills) and three (Broncos) points. Moreover, just one has come at home, which is certainly playing in the Chiefs still holding firm as solid favorites despite the body of work of both teams.
As mentioned earlier, the 8-2 Colts have mostly been having their way with opponents, although both defeats have come on the road by 27-20 scores to the Rams and Steelers. Additionally, it's also fair to wonder if Jones is every so slightly starting to turn back into a pumpkin, as he has four interceptions and six fumbles (three lost) in the last two games alone. The Chiefs' defense isn't as formidable as years past, but Kansas City is allowing a minuscule 151.4 passing yards per home game and an NFC-low 8.1 yards per completion at home.
While Jonathan Taylor is having an MVP season and has completely taken over games on multiple occasions, he's got a tough assignment in the form of a defense that's conceded only 94.2 rushing yards per home game and 86.7 in the last three contests overall. The Chiefs have also been very good at limiting the big plays on the ground Taylor has been so renowned for, ranking in the top half of the league in both second-level and open-field yards per carry allowed.
While this is a very even matchup on paper, I see the intangible of a desperate Chiefs team at home squeaking out a win despite the rest advantage for Indianapolis. Then, with the Colts surrendering 256.8 passing yards per road game and facing the second-most pass attempts per road contest (39.4), the Over on Mahomes' prop is in play, especially with Isiah Pacheco (knee) still sidelined.
Colts vs. Chiefs Best Bets:
- Chiefs moneyline (-180 on BetRivers Sportsbook)
- Patrick Mahomes Over 36.5 pass attempts (-112 on BetRivers Sportsbook)
Colts vs. Chiefs Prediction
Chiefs 27, Colts 24
As mentioned, this is virtually a do-or-die spot for the Chiefs, one in which they're unlikely to feel any lead is safe. Therefore, I see an aggressive gameplan through the air for the hosts, one where Mahomes exploits Indy's issues with pass defense on the road and where he clears his pass-attempt prop on the way to a narrow victory.
