Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills for NFL Week 5
Through four games, Mike Vrabel has seemingly brought about the culture change Robert Kraft was hoping for, as New England comes in at 2-2 for this divisional Sunday night clash. The Bills are nevertheless heavy home favorites, but they struggled at times against an inferior Saints team in Week 4.
There's always a certain level of unpredictability in divisional games, and we break down odds and best bets for this primetime AFC East showdown.
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New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Patriots +380 (ESPN Bet) / Bills -405 (FanDuel)
Point spread: Patriots +8.5 (-112 FanDuel) / Bills -8 (-105 Caesars)
Totals: Over 48.5 points (-105 Caesars) / Under 49.5 points (-105 DraftKings)
While the Bills remain heavy home favorites, the number has moved a notable amount following Week 4 results. Buffalo was as much as a 10-point favorite before Week 4 kicked off, but the number was actually bet all the way down to 7.5 on a couple of occasions this week.
The total has had its fair share of volatility as well, but within a tighter range. The number was at 49.5 before Week 4, and it's repeatedly bounced between that figure and 50.5 since that point, although it is as low as 48.5 at Caesars as of Saturday morning.
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New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Picks
The Bills were arguably guilty of playing down a bit to the level of their opposition in Week 4 against the Saints. They allowed New Orleans to hang around well into the fourth quarter before pulling away with 10 unanswered points. Buffalo also got a competitive game from the Dolphins on Thursday night in Week 3 in what was ultimately a 31-21 win, and notably, both games were at home.
Through four weeks under Vrabel's leadership, the Patriots look like the type of team that could give Buffalo its share of trouble as well, even if they ultimately come up short in their bid for an upset. Drake Maye has undoubtedly made strides early in his second season, and Stefon Diggs just put together his first signature game in a Pats uniform in Week 4 with a 6-101-0 line on seven targets against the Panthers.
New England also has three quality RBs in Rhamondre Stevenson, Antonio Gibson and rookie TreVeyon Henderson, and one of the savviest veteran tight ends in the league in Hunter Henry. The Maye-Henry connection especially has clicked this season, as the duo has already connected for three touchdowns, one more than Henry recorded in 2024. Meanwhile, Maye has seen a near nine-point jump in completion percentage from last season's 66.6 percent figure to a 74.0 percent figure through four 2025 contests.
Though the improved Patriots squad deserves due credit, it's also imperative to remember the talent level of the Bills. They have already proven capable of winning games in a multitude of ways through the first four weeks. Allen is completing a career-high 70.2 percent of his passes and has a 7:1 TD:INT along with three rush TDs. James Cook is playing at an MVP level, already compiling 401 rushing yards at 5.3 yards per carry, and Buffalo's deep group of pass-catching options is healthy.
The Pats have been a standout team against the run (77.5 RYPG allowed). But Cook can also thrive as a receiver and Allen certainly has the ability to turn it on through the air when he has to. I actually anticipate a fairly high-scoring game as Maye and his weapons come to play against a Bills defense that has given up some plays/yardage this season, but Buffalo's experience and talent edge will ultimately prevail.
Given how tough the Pats have been to run on and that they've allowed an NFL-high 81.3 percent completion rate on the road, I like an SGP that accounts for the possibility of the game being closer than projected and Allen posting just an average day through the air as my main bet.
Patriots vs. Bills Best Bets:
- SGP: Bills Alt. Spread -3.5 and Josh Allen 200+ Passing Yards (+102 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Josh Allen Over 19.5 completions (-122 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Patriots vs. Bills Prediction
Bills 30, Patriots 20
The Bills are a legitimate Super Bowl contender, but that also makes them quite the target for every opponent. New England is hungry to prove its legitimacy in the AFC East and senses an opening with the Dolphins' issues, so I expect the Patriots to keep things interesting here for three-plus quarters before Allen, Cook and co. ensure the Bills remain undefeated.
