This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Chargers Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Monday Night Football Week 6
The BetMGM bonus code features a great welcome offer for new customers. And as of Sept. 28, sports betting is live in Kentucky. Football fans in the bluegrass state can get in on the action at BetMGM with the BetMGM Kentucky sports betting promo.
Monday Night Football brings an inter-conference matchup of two teams with Super Bowl aspirations when the Los Angeles Chargers (2-2) host the Dallas Cowboys (3-2). Let's dig into the betting market and discuss three wagers that could prove to be profitable.
Cowboys vs. Chargers Betting Odds for Monday Night Football
Cowboys: Spread -1.5 (-110), -125 Moneyline
Chargers: Spread +1.5 (-110), +105 Moneyline
Game Total: 51.0 points
This line opened as Chargers -1.0 and moved to Cowboys -2.5 about 10 days ago before dropping back to -1.5 Saturday afternoon for a 2.5-point move. The Chargers have looked lackluster and the Cowboys were considered Super Bowl contenders until getting blown out by the 49ers last Sunday night, 42-10. The total has gone from 46.5 to 51.0 (4.5-point move).
Totaling bets thus far, 53 percent of the money and 53 percent of the bets are on the Cowboys. There is 44 percent of the money on the Cowboys' money line, which is 65 percent of the bets. There is 62 percent of the money and 50 percent of the bets on the UNDER.
Key injury situations to watch
Cowboys: Trevon Diggs (OUT), Leighton Vander Esch (OUT)
Chargers:Mike Williams (OUT), Corey Linsley (OUT), Alohi Gilman (OUT), Joey Bosa (Questionable, limited practice Saturday), Nick Williams (Questionable), Austin Ekeler/Rashawn Slater/Derwin James - Full practice Friday.
Cowboys vs. Chargers Betting Picks This Week
Cowboys vs. Chargers Best Bet: Tony Pollard OVER 67.5 rushing yards for 1 unit (DraftKings -115)
I am expecting the Cowboys to lean heavily on the run game and Tony Pollard to keep the Chargers offense off the field. Pollard hit over this number in the first three games, but has failed in the last two. Context is key as those games were against the Patriots and 49ers. The Chargers run defense is middle of the road and Pollard should be able to hit this number. Rotowire projections have Pollard at 73.02 rushing yards.
Cowboys vs. Chargers Best Bet: Cowboys/Chargers UNDER 51.0 (DraftKings -110) for 1 unit
This is a huge game for both teams and I look for the Cowboys to slow this game down by leaning on their run game/defense. This will limit the pace, number of plays, and scoring in the game. The Cowboys have averaged 43.9 points in their last 10 games, while the Chargers have averaged 46.9 (53.5 last 4). The total of 51 is the highest in a Cowboys game since Jan. 2, 2022 against the Cardinals (53.0), so this is well above their average.
Cowboys vs. Chargers Best Bet: Jake Ferguson over 3.5 receptions for 0.75 unit (DraftKings -140)
Ferguson has become a favorite target of Dak Prescott with 7 targets in 3 out of 5 games. His two lowest target total games came against the Jets and 49ers who are two of the best defenses in football. The Cowboys should be able to move the ball on this Chargers defense and grind out long drives keeping the Chargers offense off the field. Ferguson will be a favorite target of Prescott on 3rd and short.
Cowboys vs. Chargers Prediction
Cowboys - #12 overall DVOA, #19 DVOA offense, #8 DVOA defense
Chargers - #13 overall DVOA, #5 DVOA offense, #22 DVOA defense
Dallas is 6-1 straight up against the AFC in its last seven games. The Cowboys are 1-8 to the UNDER 51 points in their last 10.
Both teams need this game and it is on the biggest stage – Monday Night Football. I expect both teams to play well and be able to move the ball. "Vegas" has the side and total right about where I have it projected with a lean on the UNDER. When a team suffers a loss like Dallas, they tend to circle the wagons and come in laser focused which is what I expect. Look for them to lean on their run game to keep Justin Herbert and Austin Ekeler off the field. Cowboys, 26-23. There were no field goal props posted for the Cowboys on Saturday, but if there is I would go OVER 1.5 field goals for 1 unit at anything under -175.
