This is our Monday Night Football DFS strategy breakdown for Week 17 as the Rams travel to face the Atlanta Falcons in Atlanta.
The race for the NFC West is going down to the wire as the 11-4 Rams pursue the 13-3 Seahawks and 12-4 49ers. To stay in the hunt the Rams would need a victory Monday against the Falcons, who at 6-9 are well out of the playoff picture. The Rams will be without standout receiver Davante Adams (hamstring), yet the home-team Falcons are 7.0-point underdogs with the over/under at 49.0.
QUARTERBACK
There is a wealth of from-scrimmage candidates to pick in this slate, including two expensive, almost-mandatory selections in Bijan Robinson and Puka Nacua, but if the money isn't an issue then Matthew Stafford ($10800 DK, $12400 FD) is not easy to fade here, even without Davante Adams (hamstring). Nacua alone can get Stafford more than halfway there, and the team's suddenly unstoppable three-tight end rotation has otherwise proven difficult to stop in conjunction with Nacua. Stafford threw for 457 yards and three touchdowns last week even without Adams, so there's no obvious reason to worry for Stafford here.
Kirk Cousins ($9000 DK, $10200 FD) looked like an easy fade a few weeks ago but with six touchdowns (one rushing) in the last two weeks it might be time to take Cousins more seriously. If you can't afford Stafford but still have your heart set on selecting a quarterback, then going with Cousins is justified enough if only for the modest ownership he projects for. Quarterbacks can have good fantasy games even if the real-life play is less impressive, and if Cousins can achieve that much then he should do so without much chalk on him.
RUNNING BACK
While it's not easy to guess which will be the superior per-dollar value, we have reason to assume the Rams running game will be lively in this one and therefore both of Kyren Williams ($9600 DK, $8400 FD) and Blake Corum ($4600 DK, $7200 FD) are central considerations on this slate, to the point that picking both on the same lineup card is easily justifiable. Indeed, at those low prices Corum will likely be chalky, especially on DK, but especially on DK it's tough to fade a guy with at least one touchdown in four straight games and double-digit carries in three straight.
The Bijan Robinson ($11800 DK, $12800 FD) question is more straightforward – you probably don't want to fade him, especially while Drake London (PCL) is less than 100 percent healthy. Perhaps Robinson might stall on the ground in a given game, but the number of games where he struggles both as a runner and receiver are exceedingly few. And of course, Robinson has plenty of games where both the rushing and receiving production are rolling. Tyler Allgeier ($3800 DK, $7000 FD) is always a justifiable pick as an overqualified RB2, but in a game where the Falcons are clear underdogs the path to production appears less than favorable for Allgeier in this one.
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
The Puka Nacua ($12200 DK, $13200 FD) part of the Rams offense is easy – he's probably an advised start, no matter how chalky. Nacua is all but inevitable in nearly all circumstances, and the absence of Davante Adams dictates even more slack for Nacua. The hard part of the Rams offense is the rest of the passing game, especially its tight ends. The Rams use more tight-end personnel than any team in the league, resulting in three tight ends with 60 or more snaps last week. With that kind of playing time it's easy to justify the selection of any or potentially even all of Colby Parkinson ($4400 DK, $5000 FD), Terrance Ferguson ($3400 DK, $3400 FD) and Davis Allen ($2400 DK, $2200 FD). With that said, it's generally difficult for all three to coexist from scrimmage in a single game. Allen is likely the one of the three with the lowest projection in a given week due to his substantial blocking workload, but throughout the year his playing time has been more stable than the rookie second-round pick Ferguson, who has seen his playing time improve over the last two weeks.
It's of course possible that a second Rams receiver emerges as viable – Adams himself was raking before his injury – and last week it was Konata Mumpfield ($2200 DK, $4400 FD) who played the second-most snaps – roughly twice as many as Xavier Smith and roughly three times as many as Jordan Whittington. Mumpfield hasn't put it all together yet, but if the rookie is playing 40-plus snaps than at those prices he's an easily justified pick, even if more of the punt variety.
For Atlanta the Drake London ($9800 DK, $11200 FD) question is difficult. While he'd normally be an auto-start, London might still be managing his PCL injury and therefore might not be the Drake London we've come to know and expect. With that said, London's snap count appears stable and if his knee does cooperate he's of course capable of massive damage. Kyle Pitts ($8800 DK, $8000 FD) stands to pick up whatever slack London leaves otherwise, and as Pitts has shown lately he too can do major damage with sufficient opportunity. It generally seems like at least one of London and Pitts should provide a cashing-viable box score here. The other Falcons pass catchers are less intriguing – Darnell Mooney ($4000 DK, $6200 FD) is the next guy on the list, but he's been off all year since injuring his clavicle in training camp. If the pre-2025 version of Mooney were to resurface it would be a game changer for the Falcons, but we've been waiting for that all year. David Sills ($2800 DK, $5400 FD) is the WR3 and an awful one at that, but at his price Sills has a good case on this one-game slate.
KICKER
It's possible that some useful level of opportunity awaits one or both kickers in this game, but both kickers in this game are otherwise among the lowest-ranked kickers in the NFL.
Harrison Mevis ($5000 DK, $6600 FD) is likely the preferred option of the two as the kicker for the clear favorite. Lowly as he's currently ranked, Mevis is doing well as a fringe prospect and if he continues to kick well he'll establish the case to quickly move up the rankings. Despite missing a costly kick last week, Mevis is 8 of 9 on field goals to this point, making his only attempt from beyond 50 yards. Mevis has three games with double-digit fantasy points out of seven starts.
Zane Gonzalez ($4800 DK, $6800 FD) has been fairly accurate this year, making 13 of 15 field goal attempts, including four of six beyond 50 yards. Gonzalez generally lacks range, however, and it wouldn't be surprising if he missed some kicks in his upcoming games. With that said, Gonzalez has double-digit fantasy points in four of his seven starts with Atlanta.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
It's possible that neither defense projects especially well given the over/under, but of the two the preferred option is clearly the Rams. Although on an apparent upswing, Kirk Cousins remains fallible and to be fair to Cousins, this is not an easy job when Drake London is at less than 100 percent health.
The Falcons simply don't have a great defense. Although their pass rush has some truly quality pieces, the broader defense still has weak spots to tend to in the run defense and secondary. The Rams should be able to capitalize on Atlanta's poor run defense to the point that the otherwise strong pass rush might not get the proper passing-down opportunities to express the pass rush.
