This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.
This article will break down the three-game Christmas Day NFL slate for DraftKings.
The games are:
Kansas City (-10.5) vs. Las Vegas (40.5 O/U)
Philadelphia (-13.5) vs. New York Giants (43.5 O/U)
San Francisco (-6.0) vs. Baltimore (46.5 O/U)
QUARTERBACK
In terms of projected team point totals the quarterbacks whose offenses are expected to score the most points are Jalen Hurts ($7600) and Brock Purdy ($6700). That doesn't guarantee that either will have the highest fantasy point total, but playing on the highest-scoring offenses is a nice starting point. Neither expectation is guaranteed to hold, either, but those outcomes are the betting favorites for at least some reason.
Hurts stands out for the fact that he carries not only the passing game but the running game for his team, which of course gives him slate-breaking upside in his best games. The Giants defense is improved from earlier this year, but even with that the case and even with Hurts' recent struggles, it still would be surprising if receivers like A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith struggled against the Giants.
Purdy doesn't throw as much as any other quarterback on this slate, but the 49ers offense regularly sees short fields and Purdy has more help around him than maybe any quarterback in NFL history. If that statement isn't true then it is at least true to say Purdy almost certainly has more support relative to the competition than any quarterback in history. Even against a tough Baltimore defense, there's reason to think Purdy will still play at a lower difficulty level than any quarterback on the slate.
If anyone can catch Hurts or Purdy on this slate it might be Lamar Jackson ($7400), if only due to his unique rushing ability. The matchup with the 49ers defense is a brutal one, though, and the Baltimore offense has taken a lot of injury damage over the year. Patrick Mahomes ($7500) is of course perfectly capable of ranking first among quarterbacks on this slate, but his pass catchers are lacking and the weather at Arrowhead could be both rainy and windy. If the weather in Arrowhead looks better than expected then it's arguably worth moving Mahomes up to a level around Hurts and Purdy.
Aidan O'Connell ($5200) is much less likely to withstand wind and rain than Mahomes. Tommy DeVito ($5000) against the Eagles is probably a better play than O'Connell in the rain and wind at Arrowhead.
RUNNING BACK
Christian McCaffrey vs. Baltimore ($9500) is a tough fade no matter the slate or matchup. He's the key to unleashing the 49ers offense to this particular level it has played at in 2023. The Ravens know that and will try to neutralize him accordingly, but it might be something that can only be said rather than done. If Elijah Mitchell (knee) is out then Jordan Mason is your first SF runner off the bench, and an interesting option especially if San Francisco wins big.
D'Andre Swift vs. Giants ($6000) is the fifth-most expensive running back but might have the second-best overall setup. The Giants at this point are tougher to throw on than to run on, and the Eagles are heavily favored. While this is no doubt a setting where the Eagles would like to get their passing offense going again, they more importantly need to win. Swift and his much less talented backup Kenneth Gainwell ($4800) have a good matchup here, though Gainwell has killed Philadelphia all year.
Saquon Barkley ($6800), Isiah Pacheco (shoulder) ($6400), and Josh Jacobs (quadriceps) at Kansas City ($6300) are all options with theoretical upside but also complications to their projection. Barkley's issue is the matchup – his workload is almost certainly locked in.
Pacheco and Jacobs have better matchups than Barkley, but both have injury questions, especially Jacobs. If Jacobs is out then Zamir White ($5000) will need to step up, and if the Chiefs offense struggles enough then White could see decent rushing volume. Pacheco will play, for sure, but fresh off of a shoulder injury it's not clear if Pacheco might play a little less than usual, with whatever resulting benefits falling to Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5500). If Pacheco is limited at all then CEH could be one of the better values on the slate in a game where Las Vegas appears overmatched.
Gus Edwards ($5700) and Justice Hill ($4700) will likely play a lot for Baltimore, but they're unlikely to see favorable setups against the dominant 49ers defense. Because the Ravens are road underdogs there is little in the way of workload assurance for either player, moreover
WIDE RECEIVER
A.J. Brown ($8500) and DeVonta Smith (knee) ($7100) have struggled lately, but the duo will get right eventually and this could be the setting for it. At the very least you will want to have at least one of these two to pair with Hurts, should you select Hurts at quarterback. Smith has no injury designation but only logged one limited practice all week, so Brown (as always) is the safer pick and the one with more upside. The Giants wideouts are cheap enough to Run It Back in this game, too – all of Wan'Dale Robinson ($3900), Darius Slayton ($3400) and Jalin Hyatt ($3200) are solid bargain targets, in my opinion.
Deebo Samuel ($7700) and Brandon Aiyuk ($6700) have a challenging matchup on paper, but if the spread is correct in the 49ers game then at least one of the two should do something helpful for fantasy investors. It would also probably be wise to prioritize at least one of the two if you select Purdy at quarterback. If you were to target this game specifically then the player on Baltimore's side who's most affordable in my opinion is Odell Beckham ($4300), who the Ravens have largely been saving for a game like this. Zay Flowers ($5500) costs more and has played more snaps this year but is not as effective of a wide receiver as Beckham, and Flowers is playing through a foot issue. Nelson Agholor ($3000) might play something like 30 snaps in the slot, if you're looking to save money, and Rashod Bateman ($3300) is a little more expensive on the outside.
Davante Adams ($7300) and Jakobi Meyers ($5200) are an excellent wideout duo, but between the Arrowhead weather and Arrowhead's general grounding effect it might be a difficult setting for rookie quarterback Aidan O'Connell. Rashee Rice ($6500) won't be safe from the weather, either, but as a low ADOT target with an exceedingly high catch rate, Rice's routes are easier to target in challenging weather than someone with an ambitious downfield ADOT like Justin Watson ($3500) or Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3100). Richie James ($3000) is probably about as good of a play as Watson or MVS, though the latter two see more snaps to this point.
TIGHT END
Travis Kelce ($7500) is usually worth the money but it has become the case less and less this year as the Kansas City offense implodes on itself. That it's potentially rainy and windy here probably doesn't help matters, but if Kansas City is throwing so many as 30 passes there will usually be a target count pushing double-digits for Kelce. Austin Hooper is a somewhat interesting desperation option in the same game with Michael Mayer out.
George Kittle ($5500) theoretically gets a tough matchup but he's probably one of the most matchup-proof tight ends in the league since he generates so much yardage after the catch. If the Ravens are successfully selling out to stop Christian McCaffrey then that's a specific setup that suits Kittle off the playaction threat.
Dallas Goedert ($4700) and Darren Waller ($4500) are interesting options from the same game, with Goedert a viable pairing with Hurts and Waller a strong option to Run It Back. Waller was limited but effective last week in his first returning from injury, but indications are that he's healthier now and therefore could be the highest-scoring tight end on this slate with a little luck.
Isaiah Likely ($4200) probably need more than a little luck running often in Fred Warner's territory, but Likely has shown an ability to make contested catches.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Kansas City ($3200) isn't as feared of a defense as San Francisco ($3000) or Baltimore ($2500), but since the offenses in the SF vs BAL game are both formidable the Chiefs and even the Philadelphia ($3400) might fare better since they face weaker offenses. The Chiefs have the added benefit of poor weather to keep the Raiders offense grounded, and rookie quarterbacks rarely do well at Arrowhead stadium.
The Giants ($2700) defense has improved lately but it would be awfully impressive for them to get the better of the Eagles, possible as it might be. The Eagles are still probably the better defense in that game, with DeVito being much lesser and with a much worse offensive line than Hurts.
