This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.
Well, Wild-Card Weekend turned out to be a pretty big dud from a fan perspective, not surprisingly, with all four home teams winning easily and none of the games having anything close to an exciting finish. This weekend should be very different with three of the four games looking like exceptional matchups on paper. Last week, the highest over/under was 46.5 points while this week the lowest total is 44 points with both NFC games sporting totals over 50. So not only are the matchups better for viewers, but the fantasy stats should be a lot better too. This is the second to last weekend of DraftKings for this season and the last one with eight teams playing, so here is hoping it is a fun one!
Quarterback
Matt Ryan, ATL vs. SEA ($7,000) – It is hard to go against Aaron Rodgers here who is absolutely on fire right now and went crazy last weekend. However, at his $8,200 price tag coupled with a road game and likely without Jordy Nelson (ribs), I am going to save $1,200 for the other positions and ride with Matt Ryan. The matchup against Seattle will not be easy of course, but in their Week 6 matchup, Ryan did manage to light them up for 335 yards and three scores. The Seattle defense is not quite the same away from home and I like the Falcons' chances to score points at home and the game is projected to be high scoring
Well, Wild-Card Weekend turned out to be a pretty big dud from a fan perspective, not surprisingly, with all four home teams winning easily and none of the games having anything close to an exciting finish. This weekend should be very different with three of the four games looking like exceptional matchups on paper. Last week, the highest over/under was 46.5 points while this week the lowest total is 44 points with both NFC games sporting totals over 50. So not only are the matchups better for viewers, but the fantasy stats should be a lot better too. This is the second to last weekend of DraftKings for this season and the last one with eight teams playing, so here is hoping it is a fun one!
Quarterback
Matt Ryan, ATL vs. SEA ($7,000) – It is hard to go against Aaron Rodgers here who is absolutely on fire right now and went crazy last weekend. However, at his $8,200 price tag coupled with a road game and likely without Jordy Nelson (ribs), I am going to save $1,200 for the other positions and ride with Matt Ryan. The matchup against Seattle will not be easy of course, but in their Week 6 matchup, Ryan did manage to light them up for 335 yards and three scores. The Seattle defense is not quite the same away from home and I like the Falcons' chances to score points at home and the game is projected to be high scoring with a current over/under of 51.5. Ryan and the Falcons were good in almost any venue this year, but they do step it up in the Georgia Dome averaging 311.9 yards per game at home against only 278.8 on the road. Julio Jones is healthy and the Falcons have had two weeks to rest and prep for the Seahawks and I like Ryan to produce a nice stat line.
Cheapie stab:
If I wanted to save money at QB, I think I would lean to Dak Prescott at $6,000 over Alex Smith at $5,400 as I think Dak has a lot more potential upside than Smith does. The Cowboys-Packers game could turn into a shootout and Prescott would benefit from that. Smith will likely be solid, but it is hard to see him going really big.
Running Back
Ezekiel Elliott, DAL vs. GB ($8,500) – Most teams will likely have to pick one of Elliott or Le'Veon Bell this week and for $2,000 less, I am going to ride with Zeke. Elliott has been amazingly consistent all throughout his rookie season as he ran for at least 80 yards in every single game except for opening week. In the initial matchup with Green Bay in Week 6, Zeke had his highest rushing total on the season with 157 yards. The Cowboys are off a bye week and Zeke should be fresh and ready to eat as the Cowboys will use their offensive line strength to try and dominate time of possession to keep the ball from the red-hot Aaron Rodgers.
Spencer Ware, KC vs. PIT ($5,200) – Ware struggled a bit down the stretch with no touchdowns over the last three weeks and he failed to top 100 combined yards in all those games. Further, he also missed Week 17 against the Chargers with a rib injury. With that week off plus their bye week, Ware should be fully healed, rested and ready to roll this week. In the first matchup against the Steelers in Week 4, Ware ran for 82 yards and averaged 6.3 yards per carry. The Chiefs will have to score a decent amount of points to hang with the Steelers' offense which also bodes well for Ware to also catch some balls out of the backfield. The Steelers have allowed 16 catches to running backs in their last four games and with DraftKings full-PPR scoring, Ware's catches are going to help him boost his fantasy stats and be a nice value at only $5,200.
Cheapie Stab:
If I had to grab someone below Ware's tag, I think it would be Tevin Coleman at $4,500. Coleman is always capable of busting a big play and the Falcons should use him as a pass catcher out the backfield in order to get him the ball in space a few times this weekend.
Wide Receiver
Dez Bryant, DAL vs. GB ($6,600) – Bryant is about $1,000 cheaper than I thought he would be when I first glanced at the DraftKings salaries and I think he is an excellent value at $6,600. It has been discussed in depth how much the Packers' secondary has given up to receivers late this season (six touchdown allowed to receivers in the last three weeks of the regular season), but many have noted that they only allowed 28 yards to Odell Beckham last weekend. Hidden in that apparent shutdown of Beckham though is not only a couple of big drops by Beckham, but also the fact they did allow 73 yards to Tavarres King and 63 yards to Sterling Shepard. They now move indoors to a faster track and I love Dez to have a nice game and make a couple of big plays as only the seventh-highest-priced wide receiver on the slate.
Julian Edelman, NE vs. Hou ($6,800) – The Patriots are favored by 15 points and this game may get out of hand, but at this price, I like getting Edelman in my lineup. Edelman has been an absolute target beast in the last seven weeks of the season, averaging a massive 12.6 targets per week during that stretch. Incredibly, during those seven weeks, Edelman has had at least 70 receiving yards in each game. The Houston defense is very good, but they did allow 100-yard receivers the final two weeks of the regular season and with that level of volume, Edelman is going is going to find a way to produce plenty for his salary, especially with Tom Brady delivering the rock.
Cheapie Stab:
Mohammed Sanu, ATL vs. SEA ($4,000) – Julio Jones is going to get his volume as he usually does, but the Seahawks will likely try and get Richard Sherman on him a good amount of the time. Sanu has been quiet over the last three weeks of the season, but at $4,000, I like his chances to get enough targets in a home game to provide value for his price tag.
Tight End
Jimmy Graham, SEA at ATL ($4,900) – With his poor performance last week (three catches for 37 yards) and the likely popularity of Travis Kelce and Jared Cook, I am hoping Graham can sneak way under the radar. When he played the Falcons in Week 6, Graham had a really nice game with six catches for 89 yards. He has been very quiet lately with only 11 catches total in his last five games, but the Seahawks are going to have to score to keep up with the Falcons in the Georgia Dome, which bodes for a very nice game flow for Graham. Kelce will understandably be popular, but I prefer Graham and the extra $1,200 of cap to use elsewhere. I also really like Cook at $3,900 with the huge struggles Dallas has had against the tight end plus the increased targets he'll likely see with no Jordy Nelson (ribs). I may even use Cook or Jason Witten (cheapie stab below) as a flex this week as I like both of them more than the cheap wide receivers in the same price range.
Cheapie stab:
Jason Witten, DAL vs. GB ($3,500) – At only $3,500, Witten should get plenty of targets to produce in full PPR scoring. In his last three real games (tossing out Week 17 as Dallas sat their starters early), Witten was targeted 21 times and hauled in 16 receptions. That is very nice volume at his dirt-cheap price and Witten is a great way to save money this weekend. As mentioned above, I like using Witten or Cook and flex (depending on if you take a pricier TE also like Graham or Kelce) over the wide receiver options in the same range and if you wanted to get really cheap, I would have no issue going with both cheap tight ends this week.
Defense
New England, vs. HOU ($4,000) – New England will be the huge chalk play this weekend and, while they are the highest-priced defense, they are just the clear best play this week when scanning the matchups. They get a home game against a shaky quarterback and none of the other teams playing this weekend get anywhere near that good of a setup. The Raiders did nothing on D last week against Houston, but the Texans had allowed four sacks each of the last two weeks before that game and one has to assume Osweiler struggles on the road as a huge underdog. I will be joining the masses on most of my teams this week with the Pats D.
Cheapie stab:
On teams where I want to save some cap and try to be a little different, I think it will be with Atlanta at a very cheap price of $2,600. The Seahawks are not the same team on the road and their offensive line has really struggled at times this year. They have surrendered 11 sacks over the last three games and I think the Falcons will be able to get after Wilson a good amount, which should mean sacks and a chance for big plays. The Chiefs are probably the second-best defense on paper this weekend as they tend to play well at home and have Tyreek Hill returning kicks, but at $3,400, I don't think it is enough money saved to move away from New England whereas you save $1,400 going to Atlanta.
