DraftKings NFL Week 13: Top Picks and Lineup Strategy

Sunday's Week 13 slate includes 10 games and, frankly, none look great for stacks. Bills-Steelers and Rams-Panthers with middling 45-point totals are the highest of the bunch. Considering the low totals and unappealing matchups, I wont be forcing big stacks this week. I'd rather pick and choose players from spots I like and pair them with mini stacks. 

In this breakdown, I've highlighted the top options for cash games and included some of my favorite ideas for GPPs. As usual, leverage and correlation are paramount to winning large-field tournaments and important to prioritize when building lineups. For cash games, play the best chalk and, when in doubt, follow ownership, which you can get an idea of from our NFL DFS optimizer.

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays.

• RB Breece Hall vs. ATL ($6,000)

Hall took 20 touches for 119 yards in Baltimore last week. It was the third time in the last four games that he's had at least 119 scrimmage yards as he's become the focal point of the Jets offense with Garrett Wilson injured and Justin Fields benched. Sunday's matchup at home against Atlanta, who are without Michael Penix and Drake London, is the best spot they've had in a month. 

• WR Chris Olave at MIA ($6,400)

Olave is coming off nine catches on 13 targets as he continues to be a target monster. New Orleans traded Rashid Shaheed, released Brandin Cooks and have ruled out Alvin Kamara. They have a rather favorable matchup in sunny Miami, where their offense should revolve around Olave and the passing-game. 

NOTE: If Marvin Harrison is ruled out again, I'd highlight Michael Wilson ($5,900) here for the third consecutive week. He'd be a no-brainer in cash games after catchings 25 passes on 33 targets over the last two weeks. 

QUICK LINKS

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Other Cash-Game Options

QB Josh Allen at PIT ($7,500)

QB Justin Herbert vs. LV ($6,500)

QB Jacoby Brissett at TB ($5,800)

QB Trevor Lawrence at TEN ($5,400)

QB C.J. Stroud at IND ($5,000)

RB De'Von Achane vs. NO ($8,300)

RB Ashton Jeanty at LAC ($6,400)

RB Breece Hall vs. ATL ($6,000)

RB Kimani Vidal vs. LV ($5,700)

RB Kenneth Walker vs. MIN ($5,300)

RB Devin Neal at MIA ($5,000)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. MIN ($9,500)

WR Puka Nacua at CAR ($9,000)

WR Jaylen Waddle vs. NO ($6,800)

WR Chris Olave at MIA ($6,400)

WR Michael Wilson at TB ($5,900)

WR DK Metcalf vs. BUF ($5,600)

TE Trey McBride at TB ($7,800)

TE Brock Bowers at LAC ($5,800)

TE Kyle Pitts at NYJ ($4,000)

TE Dalton Schultz at IND ($3,800)

TE Harold Fannin at SF ($3,400)

D/ST Jacksonville Jaguars at TEN ($3,700)

D/ST San Francisco 49ers at CLE ($3,600)

D/ST Miami Dolphins vs. NO ($3,300)

D/ST Houston Texans at IND ($2,900)

D/ST New Yorks Jets vs. ATL ($2,400)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

New Orleans Saints (18) at Miami Dolphins (23.5)

Saints

The most appealing aspect of this matchup is that it should be uptempo. New Orleans plays fast and their games have elevated play volume. Last week they ranked first in both neutral pace and no-huddle rate. It's encouraging to see Kellen Moore keeping the same style with rookie Tyler Shough ($4,400) under center. The offense isn't great, but it's concentrated around a few players, which is nice for fantasy. Shough is cheap enough to be considered for tournaments after throwing for 243 and 282 yards in his last two starts, respectively. Chris Olave ($6,400) is far and away the top option, coming off nine catches on 13 targets, as they don't really have a No. 2 WR after trading Rashid Shaheed and Brandin Cooks. Tight end Juwan Johnson ($4,200) has shown a solid floor and upside with double-digit DraftKings points in five consecutive games. Devaughn Vele ($3,500) has played 88 percent of snaps over the last two games, playing mostly in the slot, and he caught three of seven targets last week. With Kamara ruled out, Devin Neal ($5,000) can be considered after catching five of seven targets last week. 

Dolphins

The Dolphins are fresh off a bye and have a soft matchup at home against a Saints defense that's been considerably worse against the pass than the run. Tua Tagovailoa ($4,900) has been inconsistent but is cheap enough to put up a ceiling in this spot. We've seen him top 22 DraftKings points three times in 11 games, and this is one of the better opportunities he'll have. De'Von Achane ($8,300) projects among the top plays and will be one of the most popular. Pairing him with Tagovailoa would be immediate leverage. So would fading him in favor of Jaylen Waddle ($6,800), still a big time talent with the upside to outscore his entire position. He won't be as popular as he should be. It's possible that Darren Waller (3,900) returns for the first time since Week 7, and he'd be viable for large-field GPPs at almost no ownership after we saw him score two touchdowns in his Miami debut back in Week 3. 

• Favorite Saints Stack: QB Shough + RB Achane + WR Olave or TE Johnson
• Favorite Dolphins Stack: QB Tagovailoa + WR Waddle + WR Olave and/or RB Neal
• Favorite Dolphins Stack 2: QB Tagoailoa + RB Achane + WR Olave +/- WR Waddle

Arizona Cardinals (20) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (24.5)

Cardinals

From a DFS standpoint, Jacoby Brissett ($5,800) has been incredible: in six games as the starter, he's thrown for at least 258 yards and scored 20+ DraftKings points in each. He's been a revelation for his pass catchers, specifically Trey McBride ($7,800) and Michael Wilson ($5,900). Now they get a matchup against the Tampa Bay pass-funnel, a customary target for passing stacks. McBride has at least nine catches in four of the last five and 30 DraftKings points in three of those. Wilson has a staggering 25 catches on 33 targets over the last two weeks filling in for Marvin Harrison ($6,000) as the No. 1 WR. Harrison returned to practice this week and his status is up in the air. If he's ruled out, I'll be all in on Wilson again. If he's active, i'll have more interest in McBride, who'll be lower owned than recent weeks due to a considerable salary hike. 

Buccaneers

My interest in Tampa Bay hinges on the status of Baker Mayfield ($5,900), who was knocked out of Sunday night's game against the Rams with a left shoulder injury and is listed as questionable. Teddy Bridgewater ($4,400) is the backup and I'd expect a slow-paced, run-heavy offense if he starts. If it's Mayfield, he and his pass-catchers have a plus matchup against one of the weaker defenses. With Mike Evans still out, Emeka Egbuka ($6,500) is Mayfield's No. 1 option while Chris Godwin ($5,000) is expected to see his snap share ramped up after returning from injury last week. He's cheap enough to be considered, but I'd much rather find the money for Egbuka.

• Favorite Cardinals Stack: QB Brissett + WR Wilson and/or TE McBride
• Favorite Bucs Stack: QB Mayfield + WR Egbuka + TE McBride or WR Wilson

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Josh Allen + WR DK Metcalf

QB Matthew Stafford + WR Puka Nacua + WR Tetairoa McMillan or WR Jalen Coker

QB Matthew Stafford + WR Davante Adams + WR Tetairoa McMillan or WR Jalen Coker

QB Justin Herbert + RB Ashton Jeanty + WR Ladd McConkey and/or TE Oronde Gadsden

QB Justin Herbert + WR Ladd McConkey + TE Brock Bowers

QB Sam Darnold + WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

High-Priced Heroes

• RB De'Von Achane vs. NO ($8,300)

Achane projects considerably better than Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey for significantly less. He's coming off massive games of 165 and 225 scrimmage yards with 11 receptions over that span. That's really all you need to know for cash games, where he'll be the chalk, which makes him essentially a lock in that format. He's a great option for tournaments as well; underpriced for a soft home matchup against the Saints. 

• WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. MIN ($9,500)

Smith-Njigba continues to put up ridiculous numbers, including season-high 40 DraftKings points thanks to eight catches for 167 yards and two touchdowns against Tennessee last week. It was his seventh consecutive game with at least 20 fantasy points. He's now priced about as high as we've ever seen a WR, which will keep his ownership in check this week, as I'd guess he'll be around 20-25 percent in most tournaments. 

Honorable Mention: WR Puka Nacua ($9,000); RB Christian McCaffrey ($9,300)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• RB Bijan Robinson at NYJ ($8,500)

I highlighted Robinson as a fade here last week for the same price against New Orleans, and he finished with 70 yards on 14 carries while adding two catches for 37 yards. A respectable performance but not one to pay off his salary. His usage has been down and the offense isn't as good without Michael Penix and Drake London. I'd much rather roster Achane for $200 cheaper or find the $800 for Christian McCaffrey ($9,300), who usage is sky high, leading the league in rushing attempts and receptions. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• RB Kenneth Walker vs. MIN ($5,300)

This is the same matchup that Emanuel Wilson exploded in last week for 100+ yards and two touchdowns. Whether it's J.J. McCarthy or Max Brosmer starting for Minnesota, the offense has been inept and that usually leads to prime opportunity for opposing RBs over the course of a game. Walker has 100+ scrimmage yards in back-to-back games while averaging 16.5 touches. He has a chance to see 20 on Sunday and his salary is too cheap for that. 

The Bargain Bin

QB C.J. Stroud at IND ($5,000)

QB Tua Tagovailoa vs. NO ($4,900)

QB Cam Ward vs. JAX. ($4,600)

QB Tyler Shough at MIA ($4,400)

QB Tyrod Taylor vs. ATL ($4,300)

RB Kenneth Walker vs. MIN ($5,300)

RB Devin Neal at MIA ($5,000)

WR Jayden Higgins at IND ($3,900)

WR John Metchie vs. ATL ($3,800)

WR Adonai Mitchell vs. ATL ($3,600)

WR Elic Ayomanor vs. JAX ($3,700)

WR Devaughn Vele at MIA ($3,500)

WR Jalen Coker vs. LAR ($3,400)

TE Dalton Schultz at IND ($3,800)

TE Brenton Strange at TEN ($3,700)

TE Harold Fannin vs. SF ($3,400)

TE Mason Taylor vs. ATL ($3,300)

TE AJ Barner vs. MIN ($3,200)

TE Gunnar Helm vs. JAX ($2,600)

Injuries to Monitor

• WR Marvin Harrison at TB

Harrison's status will be important to monitor as it relates to the viability of Michael Wilson ($5,800), who'd become essentially a lock for cash games if Harrison is ruled out again. 

Weather

• It looks like it will be rainy in Cleveland with sustained 20mph wind and gusts up to 35mph. That wouldn't be good for the passing-game.