DraftKings NFL: Week 14 Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's Week 14 slate includes 11 games and features Bills-Chiefs as the marquee matchup that's sure to be popular. It's also likely to be the second week in a row that Zack Moss is the most-rostered player. Similar to last week, he's essentially a lock in cash games but a good option to fade in tournaments at such high ownership. On the flip side, he can still be a good option if you're fading chalk in other spots. I hope you get a few good ideas from this article. Good Luck. 

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the main slate of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with rostering some of the chalk.

• RB Zack Moss at CIN ($5,900)

Moss was massive chalk last week and is expected to be the most popular player on the board again this week after DraftKings left him underpriced. He's coming off a floor game against the Titans in which he managed to score less than eight fantasy points despite 21 touches. That type of usage in the absence of Jonathan Taylor is part of the reason he projects so well. The other part is the soft matchup against the Bengals, who are below average against the run and allow the highest explosive play rate in the league. The fact that he's going to be chalk makes Moss a lock for cash games, but there's nice leverage to be had by fading him in GPPs. 

• WR Rashee Rice vs. BUF ($5,400)

Rice has eight catches in back-to-back games on 19 targets and has led Chiefs receivers in snaps (68 percent) over the span. You'd still like to see him out there a bit more, but the hope is that Patrick Mahomes has a finally found a No. 1 WR. It would make sense after the Chiefs spent a second-round pick on him. Sunday's matchup at home against a weakened Bills defense should be a pace-up spot and features the highest total on the slate. As of Friday, no WR really stands out in projections and none can be considered even close to a must have. Rice projects about the same as Garrett Wilson ($5,500) and Zay Flowers ($5,700), both of whom are also good options. Take your pick. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Justin Fields vs. DET ($6,800)

QB Brock Purdy vs. SEA ($6,500)

QB Jake Browning vs. IND ($5,200)

RB Christian McCaffrey vs. SEA ($9,200)

RB Josh Jacobs vs. MIN ($6,900)

RB Bijan Robinson vs. TB ($6,500)

RB Zack Moss at CIN ($5,900)

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. BUF ($4,200)

WR Keenan Allen vs. DEN ($8,600)

WR Michael Pittman at CIN ($7,300)

WR DJ Moore vs. DET ($6,500)

WR Garrett Wilson vs. HOU ($5,500)

WR Rashee Rice vs. BUF ($5,400)

WR Drake London vs. TB ($4,600)

WR Elijah Moore vs. JAX ($4,500), if Amari Cooper is out

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba at SF ($4,100)

WR Jonathan Mingo at NO ($3,500)

TE David Njoku vs. JAX ($4,100), if Amari Cooper is out

TE Kyle Pitts vs. TB ($3,700)

TE Isaiah Likely vs. LAR ($3,500)

TE Brevin Jordan at NYJ ($3,100)

D/ST Cleveland Browns vs. JAX ($3,000), if Trevor Lawrence is out

D/ST New York Jets vs. HOU ($2,900)

D/ST Atlanta Falcons vs. TB ($2,900)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Buffalo Bills (23.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (25)

BILLS

Buffalo is playing at the second-fastest pace in the league the last month and is coming off its best performance of the season two weeks ago in Philadelphia. The Bills are also fresh off a bye and fighting for their playoff lives. Josh Allen ($8,300) seems to play his best in marquee matchups and we've seen him have monster games against the Chiefs in recent years. He was great against the Eagles, throwing for 339 yards and two scores. He also set season highs for rushing attempts and rushing yards, carrying nine times for 81 yards and two scores. The matchup against Kansas City isn't as tough as it might seem on paper. The Chiefs' defense is dealing with injuries and has struggled in back-to-back games against the Packers and Raiders. The tough thing about stacking the Bills is deciding who to pair Allen with. Stefon Diggs ($8,800) is always a decent option but he's expensive. He bounced back against the Eagles last time out, catching six of 11 targets for 74 yards and a TD. It's concerning that he hasn't topped 100 yards since Week 6, though. Nobody wanted anything to do with Gabe Davis ($5,800) and he responded with six catches for 105 yards and a TD. It was encouraging to see him draw 12 targets after failing to record a reception in two of the prior three games. Khalil Shakir ($3,900) has solidified himself as the No. 3 WR and shown upside in the process. Dalton Kincaid ($5,500) excelled in the absence of Dawson Knox ($3,000) but Knox is expected to return after practicing fully all week. I worry that Kincaid might have too much competition for targets to put up a ceiling score with all of Buffalo's pass-catchers healthy. James Cook ($6,000) is coming off a season-high six catches for 57 yards and his consistent involvement in the passing-game means he can rostered with either Allen or Mahomes. 

CHIEFS

Patrick Mahomes ($7,900) has failed to reach 20 fantasy points in four of his last five games as the Chiefs' passing game hasn't hit the heights were used to seeing. If there was ever a matchup for him to breakout, it's this one against a Bills team that plays fast and is dealing with multiple key injuries across its defense. One nice thing about rostering Mahomes is that there's really only two players to consider pairing him with. Travis Kelce ($7,800) is still the top option and it's nice to see his salary back under $8K after a few underwhelming performances. I expect recency bias leads to Kelce going mostly overlooked, which makes him appealing for leverage. I have more interest in Rashee Rice ($5,400). The talented second-round rookie has emerged as Mahomes' favorite receiver with eight catches in consecutive games. He'd be a bargain if he sees that type of volume again. The news that Isiah Pacheco is out means that Jerick McKinnon ($4,800) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($4,200) are expected to get most of the running back touches. McKinnon makes sense paired with either QB given his receiving upside while Edwards-Helaire makes more sense in Allen stacks given that he probably needs a rushing touchdown to be optimal. 

• Favorite Bills Stack: QB Allen + WR Diggs or WR Davis + WR Rice and/or RB Pacheco
• Favorite Chiefs Stack: QB Mahomes + RB Cook + WR Rice and/or TE Kelce

Indianapolis Colts (21) at Cincinnati Bengals (23)

COLTS

Matchups involving the Colts have been fruitful for fantasy points all season and this one should be no different as the Bengals defense has been subpar against the run and pass while allowing the league's highest explosive play rate. Indianapolis plays fast, which has resulted in its games averaging the most combined plays. The Colts also have passed at a high rate since Gardner Minshew ($5,400) stepped in; expect that to continue with Jonathan Taylor still out. Michael Pittman ($7,300) has been the main beneficiary as he's put up back-to-back games of 10-plus catches and 100-plus yards. He's been consistent all season as he's caught at least eight passes in nine of 12 games. He stands out as one of the better values at WR this week. Josh Downs ($4,900) was popular last week but disappointed with just three catches for 14 yards. Consequently, he won't be popular this week, which makes it a good time to go back to him. Alec Pierce ($3,700) is coming off his best game of the season after three catches for 100 yards and a score. He drew six targets for the second consecutive game and might be worth taking a chance on in the largest-field GPPs. Zack Moss ($5,900) once again projects as the top value at RB. He's going to be very popular and therefore fading him in tournaments in favor of the Colts' passing game would make a lot of sense. On the other hand, you could pair him with either Minshew or Browning and get leverage that way too. 

BENGALS

Jake Browning ($5,200) was awfully impressive on Monday night as he led the Bengals to an upset over the Jaguars in Jacksonville. He completed over 86 percent of his passes, going 32 of 37 for 354 yards and a touchdown. He also ran for 22 yards and a score. I know it's only one game but he proved to be more than serviceable and his price tag is cheap for a favorable home matchup against a suspect defense. As far as his receivers go, I only have interest in Ja'Marr Chase ($7,600), who torched the Jags for 11 catches, 149 yards and a score. He's also priced cheaper than we've seen all season due to Joe Burrow's absence. He's not going to be overly popular either, which only adds to his appeal. Joe Mixon ($6,100) will also be overlooked despite coming off his best game of the season Monday night. He rushed for two scores and set season highs for receptions (six) and receiving yards (49). He could be paired with either QB but probably makes more sense with Minshew. 

• Favorite Colts Stack: QB Minshew + WR Pittman and/or WR Downs + WR Chase or RB Mixon
• Favorite Bengals Stack: QB Browning + WR Chase + RB Moss and/or WR Pittman/WR Downs

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Lamar Jackson + WR Zay Flowers or WR Odell Beckham +/- TE Isaiah Likely

QB Justin Fields + WR DJ Moore + WR Amon-Ra St. Brown +/- TE Cole Kmet

QB Justin Fields + RB Jahmyr Gibbs or RB David Montgomery + WR DJ Moore +/- TE Cole Kmet

QB Brock Purdy + RB Christian McCaffrey + WR Brandon Aiyuk or WR Deebo Samuel + WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

QB Joshua Dobbs + RB Josh Jacobs + WR Justin Jefferson

QB Baker Mayfield + RB Bijan Robinson + WR Mike Evans 

QB Baker Mayfield + WR Mike Evans + WR Drake London or TE Kyle Pitts

High-Priced Heroes

• RB Christian McCaffrey vs. SEA ($9,200)

McCaffrey has topped 20 fantasy points in six consecutive games after last week's dominating display in Philadelphia. Sunday's matchup at home against the Seahawks is even more favorable. He rushed for 119 yards and two scores when the teams met two weeks ago in Seattle. He projects better than any player on the board in terms of both value and ceiling. I'd say he's essentially a lock for cash games given that we're not spending all the way up at WR without Tyreek Hill on the slate. He might not be quite as popular in tournaments as he should be either. 

• WR Ja'Marr Chase vs. IND ($7,600)

I thought I was done rostering Bengals receivers this season after the injury to Joe Burrow but Jake Browning proved more than capable in Monday night's stunning upset of the Jaguars. Browning completed a staggering 32 of 37 passes and Chase caught 11 for 149 yards and a score. His price has also dropped to its lowest point of the season and it wouldn't be that surprising if he outscored the entire $8K range. He's certainly talented enough and proved it again with a 76-yard TD against the Jags. 

Honorable Mentions: QB Josh Allen ($8,300); WR Stefon Diggs ($8,800); TE Travis Kelce ($7,800)

Fading the Field

In some cases it makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• WR Keenan Allen vs. DEN ($8,600)

I highlighted Allen mostly because he's expected to be the most popular of the expensive WRs. He's obviously a fine option as evidenced by the massive numbers he's put up this season, but I don't have much interest in targeting the Chargers-Broncos matchup and would rather get leverage with less popular options like Diggs, St. Brown and Chase. I'd also rather get more exposure to the mid-range with the likes of Pittman, Olave and Moore. Let's just hope Patrick Surtain and Co. can prevent a ceiling game from Allen. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• WR Garrett Wilson vs. HOU ($5,500)

Wilson's salary is significantly discounted after recent games where the Jets offense wasn't able to do anything with Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemian under center. The return of Zach Wilson is actually a considerable upgrade and greatly improves Garrett Wilson's chances of succeeding. Consider that he was targeted 13, 13 and 14 times in that last three games that Zach Wilson started and finished in Weeks 8, 9 and 10. This is the first time Garrett Wilson has been priced less than $6K all season and 100-plus yards with a touchdown is on the table if the decent version of Zach Wilson shows up. A big if, I know. 

I want to add that if Joe Flacco starts and Amari Cooper is ruled out, I would highlight Elijah Moore ($4,500) in this section. Moore had 12 targets last week and led all receivers in air yards but needs a competent passer under center, not Dorian Thompson-Robinson.  Drake London ($4,600) is also a candidate to significantly outperform his salary but he's going to be relatively popular as his salary has fallen to its lowest point of the season. 

The Bargain Bin

QB Gardner Minshew at CIN ($5,400)

QB Baker Mayfield at ATL ($5,300)

QB Jake Browning vs. IND ($5,200)

RB Jerome Ford vs. JAX ($5,500)

RB Zach Charbonnet at SF ($5,400), if Kenneth Walker is out

RB Jerick McKinnon vs. BUF ($4,800)

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. BUF ($4,200)

WR Josh Downs at CIN ($4,900)

WR Drake London vs. TB ($4,600)

WR Elijah Moore vs. JAX ($4,500), if Amari Cooper is out

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba at SF ($4,100)

WR Jonathan Mingo at NO ($3,500)

TE Kyle Pitts vs. TB ($3,700)

TE Isaiah Likely vs. LAR ($3,500)

TE Brevin Jordan at NYJ ($3,100)

TE Tyler Conklin vs. HOU ($3,000)

Injuries to Monitor

• QB Trevor Lawrence at CLE

Lawrence is listed as questionable with the ankle injury that forced him out of Monday night's game against the Bengals. If he misses, Cleveland's defense/special teams becomes a lock for cash games. If he plays, Calvin Ridley ($6,400) and the other Jags pass-catchers become viable GPP options with Christian Kirk out injured. 

• WR Amari Cooper vs. JAX

Cooper remains in concussion protocol. If he misses, David Njoku and Elijah Moore would be expected to see significant usage bumps. However, I would only have interest in them if Joe Flacco starts ahead Dorian Thompson-Robinson. 

Weather

• It looks like it's going to be wet and windy in New York, which would be significant if you have interest in Garrett Wilson and the Jets passing game like I do. I'll be checking the forecast on Sunday morning before deciding what to do. 
• Similar conditions are expected in Baltimore, which would have me concerned about Lamar Jackson and Zay Flowers. It's tougher to put up ceiling scores in the rain with the wind gusting. Another situation I will monitor Sunday.